JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
It was a bit of sardonic dark humour which did not make fun or light of the effects on any individual. I laughed.
Irma
- Thread starter richardbayle
- Start date
It was a bit of sardonic dark humour which did not make fun or light of the effects on any individual. I laughed.
Frogmogman
Well-Known Member
Do any of you have any theories as to which charity would make the most effective use of a charitable donation to aid disaster relief in the Eastern Caribbean ?
franksingleton
Well-Known Member
Why not? They run a global model. Back in the 80s, the UK could predict hurricanes as well as anyone. On occasion, the US Hurricane Center acknowledged help from Bracknell. Weather is global and there is close co-operation between all nations. For aviation, The US National Weather Service and the UK Mer Office are the two world centres working in mutual back-up roles.
JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
I have heard very good things about Water Aid (I know someone who worked for them in Africa for many years). Tightly focussed, minimal bureaucracy, resistant to mission creep. They're going to be needed. Red R (Engineers for Disaster Relief) is also good.
The reports I have heard of Oxfam make me reluctant even to buy in their shops.
Frogmogman
Well-Known Member
Exactly why I posed the question. I'd like to do something to help, but am keen that my contribution should go to help the victims of Irma, not to pay for the company BMW of the director of some charity-business, or into the pocket of some corrupt caribbean politician.
Cheery
Well-Known Member
I saw a Gofunding page for Jost van Dyke which is trying to raise $100,000 and had reached $23,000 earlier. No idea what it is being raised for or who arranged it.
Ravi
Well-Known Member
I have been following Irma for a few days on the daily reddit meteorological IRMA thread.. Today's link is ...
https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWe...ily_irma_meteorological_discussion_thread_08/
There are a few yanks asking location specific / evacuation but it has lots of v knowledgable an interesting people who post the latest reports. I find it fascinating and learned more about hurricane science than I will ever need to know.
I mention this, in relation to your post, because they compare and discuss the relative merits of the various models. The UK Met Office hasbeen discussed but the general concensus is that the EURO (European Medium Range Forecast Model ) has been the best by far at predicting the track. The USA usual GFS is the next best and arguably has more accurate forecasts for intensity.
For those whoare interested ..
Irma has just gone through an EWRC (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle) which has weakened it slightly from cat 5 to very high cat 4. However, it has made the size of the storm grow massively. It is hitting the North of Cuba which has not reduced its power as much as hoped.
From here on, there is just v. warm water on the way to Florida. This is high octane fuel for Irma so she will almost certainly strengthen.
The only hope is that Irma will be weakened by another EWRC, (which may be starting to cycle right as I write this) and/or that the sheering to the North will depower the hurricane.
I have found it fascinating to follow the reddit thread and watch and try to understand this vast and terrible storm evolving but there is always a dread of the terrible damage that it is doing to so many people's lives.
Bajansailor
Well-Known Member
There is on Marinetraffic a mass exodus of cruise ships, cargo ships and yachts leaving Miami and heading out west of Cuba -
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-85.7/centery:25.1/zoom:6
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-85.7/centery:25.1/zoom:6
Zing
Well-Known Member
They are all heading for places I can't find on the map.
Cruise ship Grand Celebration. Destination: Cruise to Nowhere.
Cruise ship Enchantment. Destination: Safe Waters.
Cruise Ship Norwegian Sky. Destination: Evac to Safe Waters.
Cruise ship Enchantment. Destination: Safe Waters.
It does indeed look to be somewhere west of Cuba.
Interesting how late they are leaving it. Only 18hrs to go before Southern Florida is blown away and for Grand Celebration it's cutting it fine even steaming at 15kts.
I can't see little boats running away. I would have been long gone.
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Robin
Well-Known Member
I so wish we were in a comfy armchair somewhere looking on.:nonchalance:
TV today said make sure you have cash as ATMs and CC machines will not work in power outages. OK but a bit unhelpful as all the local banks have closed to allow staff time to prepare at home.
Now in full under attack mode from relatives telling us to 'leave NOW' but no ideas of 'where to when Irma straddles the entire state. Not helpful as we succumbed to that pressure 11 months ago for hurricane Matthew followed by hours and hours of going nowhere fast in the traffic jams. 3 nights sleeping in the car on various rest areas, whilst home was unscratched aside from power being off and all frozen/chilled stuff spoiled or untrustworthy We are in a reinforced concrete building built to latest çodes', all nearby trees have been pruned trimmed or whatever as judged necessary. We are on 3rd floor and ground floor is 10ft plus above local HW level (normal tide rise is only 1ft , so we should dodge any storm surge which would have to get into the ICW via the nearest inlets, >8miles away Biggest concern is power outages and especially not having air conditioning running in 90sF heat and matching humidity. We have two camping stoves and a bunch of disposable gas cannisters to run them so can make coffees and cook the stock of non-perishable foods we have to hand Atmospheric pollution from canned baked beans is a potential hazard however.
What I would give to be holed up in a nice protected harbour in Europe,waiting to get away
Best wishes to all others impacted by Irma wherever they are and here's hoping La Douce applies literally translated to this Irma and she doesn't give us all a slapping, not really my thing, that, pain.:redface-new:
TV today said make sure you have cash as ATMs and CC machines will not work in power outages. OK but a bit unhelpful as all the local banks have closed to allow staff time to prepare at home.
Now in full under attack mode from relatives telling us to 'leave NOW' but no ideas of 'where to when Irma straddles the entire state. Not helpful as we succumbed to that pressure 11 months ago for hurricane Matthew followed by hours and hours of going nowhere fast in the traffic jams. 3 nights sleeping in the car on various rest areas, whilst home was unscratched aside from power being off and all frozen/chilled stuff spoiled or untrustworthy We are in a reinforced concrete building built to latest çodes', all nearby trees have been pruned trimmed or whatever as judged necessary. We are on 3rd floor and ground floor is 10ft plus above local HW level (normal tide rise is only 1ft , so we should dodge any storm surge which would have to get into the ICW via the nearest inlets, >8miles away Biggest concern is power outages and especially not having air conditioning running in 90sF heat and matching humidity. We have two camping stoves and a bunch of disposable gas cannisters to run them so can make coffees and cook the stock of non-perishable foods we have to hand Atmospheric pollution from canned baked beans is a potential hazard however.
What I would give to be holed up in a nice protected harbour in Europe,waiting to get away
Best wishes to all others impacted by Irma wherever they are and here's hoping La Douce applies literally translated to this Irma and she doesn't give us all a slapping, not really my thing, that, pain.:redface-new:
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Tradewinds
Well-Known Member
Good luck Robin
saltylegs
Well-Known Member
All very well,
But any word from Richardbayle or TCM? I hope they are ok.
But any word from Richardbayle or TCM? I hope they are ok.
JumbleDuck
Well-Known Member
ffiill
Well-Known Member
My boat on the west coast of Scotland is ashore and strapped down onto blocks weighing several tons each winter.
You will find harbours like Plockton empty of boats.
Why because it can get very windy and sometimes hurricane force.
So what were all these boats doing in the water in the hurricane season?
Cruising boats are advised in all the pilotage I have ever read to make themselves scarce if at all possible.
Wansworth
Well-Known Member
I n the days of His ock there would probably have been room in amongst the mangroves .Bythe looks of it there are just too many yachts to hide away. And we have begun to believe we are invincible...
macd
Well-Known Member
Perhaps a shortage of safe hard standing, which wouldn't give immunity, anyway? On some islands they haul boats ashore and bury them up to the gunwhales. You'd need a lot of diggers to do that for all of them.
Whatever the reason, in much of the Caribbean the annual chance of being hit by a hurricane isn't huge, perhaps 10% or so. (Granted, given the risks involved, those odds don't exactly look inviting, but they could be a lot worse.)
This graphic gives the % chance of a hurricane coming within 60 miles in any year: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/h_prob.gif
One might equally ask why they build marinas in such places, but I expect their business models justify it.
grumpy_o_g
Well-Known Member
I'd suggest talking to a few and finding out what they need and then buying it - some charities will ship or you could even have it shipped yourself. It's a great way of making sure your money does maximum benefit.
Ravi
Well-Known Member
'Ashore' is a difficult concept when you have a hurricane storm surge.
Strapping something down in a 185 mph wind gusting over 200 would require some pretty special deck fittings.
Concrete bunkers would probably work.
Stemar
Well-Known Member
My daughter works in the charity sector and the air turns blue if you mention Oxfam in her presence. The only big charities she has any time for are Medicins Sans Frontieres and the Red Cross.
Personally, I'd be looking at larger charities as small ones simply don't have the infrastructure to deal with something of this magnitude, not that anyone has - even governments will struggle, but the bigger the organisation, the more impact they can have if they're efficient.
Tintin
Well-Known Member
Have a look at Shelter Box. Good charity.