Inshore weather forecast somewhat deceptive.

[Stoshak]

"OK. Let me act devil’s advocate.

First, CI CG only have one forecast to broadcast and are allocated the time. HMCG have to schedule several broadcasts om a 3-hourly schedule all round our coasts without the risk of over-speaking each other. Longer forecasts would take more time and delay forecasts to some areas. I was on the MCA MSI sub-committee when the current schedules were introduced but Chanelyacht may wish to clarify that.

Secondly, yes, they use more words but do they really give more information? Is the information any better? In my experience of the area, the answer to both is NO.

In order to meet time constraints of HMCG, NAVTEX and the BBC, the Met Office marine forecasts have been developed to give the maximum amount of useful information in the minimum number of words. As a Senior Forecaster in the Bracknell era, I used to try to ensure that my forecasters only wrote what they were reasonably sure about and avoided unnecessary padding. For example, is it necessary to say 35 kt gusts? There are showers in the forecast. We all know there will be gusts.
The forecast is intended to be valid for all mariners, which includes those who may not realise that showers mean gusts."

It is not helpful to keep reminding us of constraints applicable years ago, and we ought to be more amenable to improving things. In any case Channel 23 is silent for most of the time in the Solent and no doubt similar conditions apply for the appropriate channels in other areas.

And do you think you might stop being devil's advocate and bring your unsurpassed credentials to bear into advocating improvement? And my humble experience of the CI forecast is that they are very good.

 

[john_morris_uk]

Not very helpful. Frank's concerns relate only to Navtex and the BBC broadcast. I do not believe the Coastguard broadcasts are constrained and could give more detail. Similarly on-line resources could be more useful.

The insistence on brevity is no longer necessary. Most of us use the Met Office website which has plenty of room.

The RYA, MCGA and the rest of the Establishment seem to have lost sight of the fact that accurate weather forecasts are one of the strategies which are intended to prevent fatalities. My impression is that the Met Office look upon it as one of the less interesting jobs and would prefer to spend the time on more lucrative contracts.

It is time that the whole issue was re examined in an effort to more closely align the product with what is appropriate. The current product is not fit for purpose (except in the Channel Islands).

But the Coastguard are constrained and merely repeat the shipping and inshore waters forecast. A lot of the time they only have time to repeat salient bits for the are they are broadcasting to. Frank has also argued for a dedicated VHF weather channel (like the USA).

If you read his arguments he explains it rather well. IMHO.

Now saying they're not 'fit for purpose' a little unfair as they do the best they can within the constraints they are given.

If you say, change the constraints, I might agree with you, but that's a different argument.

 

[Stoshak]

But the Coastguard are constrained and merely repeat the shipping and inshore waters forecast. A lot of the time they only have time to repeat salient bits for the are they are broadcasting to. Frank has also argued for a dedicated VHF weather channel (like the USA).

If you read his arguments he explains it rather well. IMHO.

When I go sailing, I often look around me at my fellow mariners, as it may be at the launching slip. Frank advises us all to take the Inshore forecast with a pinch of salt and have a look at the Grib or whatever. Most of the punters will not know what the pinch of salt implies and have to settle for what appears in the forecast. So to say that the Inshore Forecast should be used a only a basis for a more accurate self- generated super forecast is not going to happen for the vast majority of leisure sailors.

Everything needed should be there in the one forecast

Now saying they're not 'fit for purpose' a little unfair as they do the best they can within the constraints they are given.

If you say, change the constraints, I might agree with you, but that's a different argument.

Of course the constraints need to be changed, I thought that was obvious. But even then the Establishment mentality shines through - 'I might agree with you'. It is not a different argument.

The point that I am trying to make is the fact that the current Inshore Forecast system is not fit for purpose. I would not dream of setting sail on it's advice alone.

The whole system needs overhaul, and the sailing Establishment is standing in the way of such reform.

 

[franksingleton]

Of course the constraints need to be changed, I thought that was obvious. But even then the Establishment mentality shines through - 'I might agree with you'. It is not a different argument.

The point that I am trying to make is the fact that the current Inshore Forecast system is not fit for purpose. I would not dream of setting sail on it's advice alone.

The whole system needs overhaul, and the sailing Establishment is standing in the way of such reform.

It is easy to say that the system needs an overhaul. It is quite a different matter to say how. It is yet another to get it done.

The BBC time slot is non-negotiable. That is from personal direct experience. Can you persuade ministers to instruct the BBC to give 10 minutes to the shipping forecast? The BBC could drop the SF whenever they liked and the biggest noise would come from the nutters who talk about it being part of our national heritage or some such crap.

The NAVTEX time slots are fixed as Chanelyacht has explained, he was a CG. Ask him also about the practicalities of broadcasting the inshore waters forecasts on VHF.

IMO, national marine agencies (eg MCA, CROSS etc) and seem unwilling to embrace the internet as a source of GMDSS services. I wrote an article in Navigation News last January – see http://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Gmdss-What-Is-The-Future. It was received with a deafening silence.

I wish that I could see a way to provide better services. On this and other threads I am continually reading posts like yours. Clearly you are venting your spleen. It might just be more productive if all those who feel as you do complained to your MPs. If enough did it might just get a reaction. However, it is obvious that nobody is prepared to do the necessary homework or rouse enough interest.

In the meanwhile, I practice what I preach and write about. I make great use of the US GFS for my main decision making I when and where to move on to. I use GMDSS services primarily as warning services. I am a realist.