Inshore Weather Forecase - Pointless?

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asteven221

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Over my boating life (speaking for the Clyde area) I faithfully check the Met Office Inshore Weather Forecast weather as I am sure most of us do.

I just checked and as usual there are strong wind warnings in force for almost all the UK including the Clyde.

Over the past couple of years I have noticed that the Met Office Inshore Forecast is becoming a bit sort of pointless. Almost EVERY weekend it appears to me to have Strong Wind Warnings announced for virtually the whole of the UK coast. Yet I am out on the water every weekend - even in winter, and never actually experience any! Obviously there are occassions when there is strong wind - but as I said "obvious" - it's blowin a hoooley!

I am sure that this wasn't the case a few years ago. Is it a case of, anything above a 3 then it's deemed to scary for leisure sailors and due to H&S they had better issue an official warning.

Personally I think it creates anxiety, in particular for the less experienced. Plus you could argue that IF the less experienced decide that the forecast is a waste of time due to routinely saying it's going to be a lot worse than it will be, then there is a danger of getting caught out - big time, when it IS bad.

Maybe if the facts were put in front of me I might be wrong, - but it does seem that way to me.
 
A bit lower down here Mate but!
If I went on the Inshore Forecast I too would be baffled by it.

I,m sure this scenario will be the same for you
'St Georges Channell to The Mull of Galloway'

OK that's fine
But not fine enough for say, hopping to Holyhead around the west coast of Anglesey.
Or nipping arouind tother side and up a bit or even a firtle to Conwy.
To broad a forecast as it were.
We just need to know tidal info , wind soeed and direction
So for Me its this
'Windguru'
'XC Weather'
'Easytide'

For instance, if time and weather allows I was Thinking of popping across to the IOM on Sunday in a RIB

Already I am monitoring the two wind sights
The Tides HW/ lw plus Tidal flows.
It's looking marginal at the Mo
By Sat at 18.00 ish I will have made My mind up
Just checked the Inshore Forecast, at the moment it just confuses Me!
Synoptic chart helps for a trip like this
However tiss only about a 6 hour return trip.
Mostly though say in a 14 kt semi displacement vessel . thats 80 miles ish
Well based in the Irish Sea after a six hour trip at those speeds I,m gonna hit somewhere I hope!
So unless you are in a Raggie whatsit or Displacement vessel a 6hour 'slot' usually covers most days.
Windguru for Me has been the most accurate for this area.
 
Its no longer the 'Inshore Waters forecast', its now the 'Inshore Waters - what **** shall we make up to keep them quiet this week-cast'

As above, XCweather.... but also Windguru... both GFS model based...

I don't know if the Met office problem is their model, or the interpretation and local presentation, but either way, its inaccurate to the extent of not being worth bothering with... it also suffers from probably my biggest pet hate... the fudge factor... its not at all unusual for the forecast to offer something as vague as "winds between F3 and F5, increasing F6, Occ F7, wind from the SW becoming NE, later variable, sea state smooth, occasionally slight, and moderate in places.... well thanks a bloody lot! :D
 
asteven221 said:
Over my boating life (speaking for the Clyde area) I faithfully check the Met Office Inshore Weather Forecast weather as I am sure most of us do.

I just checked and as usual there are strong wind warnings in force for almost all the UK including the Clyde.

Over the past couple of years I have noticed that the Met Office Inshore Forecast is becoming a bit sort of pointless. Almost EVERY weekend it appears to me to have Strong Wind Warnings announced for virtually the whole of the UK coast. Yet I am out on the water every weekend - even in winter, and never actually experience any! Obviously there are occassions when there is strong wind - but as I said "obvious" - it's blowin a hoooley!

I am sure that this wasn't the case a few years ago. Is it a case of, anything above a 3 then it's deemed to scary for leisure sailors and due to H&S they had better issue an official warning.

Personally I think it creates anxiety, in particular for the less experienced. Plus you could argue that IF the less experienced decide that the forecast is a waste of time due to routinely saying it's going to be a lot worse than it will be, then there is a danger of getting caught out - big time, when it IS bad.

Maybe if the facts were put in front of me I might be wrong, - but it does seem that way to me.
Click to expand...
I agree with you, it is indeed a waste of time reading it and listening to it on vhf .
they appear to take account of headland amplification and afternoon localised sea breezes uplifting the forecasts 2 Beauforts .

I have also noticed a huge emphasis placed on Gale warnings that are 200 -300 nm away and basically the end of the next day anyway.

The danger is that someone will go out in a forecast of Gale 8, and be perfectly happy in a F3-4 but will from that point on think his boat is safe in a GF8 as he has already been out in a 'metoffice' 8.

You need to read synoptic charts and decide for yourself.

short range
http://www.mwis.org.uk/synoptic.php
Long range
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500/
swell
http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/swell/in/






.
 
PaulGooch said:
I don't even bother to look at the met office any more. I find XC weather to be far more reliable http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast
Click to expand...

I also like XC but be aware that their wind predictions are for average windspeeds so can be much lower than the reality on really gusty days.

Some of the Met Office web stuff too is so vague as to be useless, like for example showing windspeed predicted as 3mph gusting 30mph on the forecasts for SW UK.
 
If I was being cynical (and I am), I'd suspect that the Met's experienced weather forecasters had been replaced by a shiny computer and a bunch of media attractive people to present its computations to the adoring public.

Out of habit, I still note the Met forecasts but don't rely on them.

GFS based data seems to be the most accurate at present.
 
Tinternet is good for checking weather before you go to the boat. But what if you want to know what the weather forecast is while you're aboard?

I'm guessing all you guys have internet access on board. By the time I've accessed these websites via my dongle, it'll be time to go home!
 
I like to use the Inshore Waters forecast as part of the jigsaw when trying to forecast conditions. I think XC weather is great for checking windspeed and direction but has no indication of sea state so the Inshore Waters helps to give a balanced view.

XC weather also has an Iphone version so ideal for checking when on the boat
 
Hey that's magic.
I love it when people agree with me.
It confirms that I am not totally dim.
Anyway it's Friday 1636, the sun's shining so I am chucking work early and off to the boat I go. Cold lager in an hour. Great!
Och boating is brill, who cares it cost a fortune.
When it's pe*ng down Monday and back at my desk, I can start moaning again, but until then.....Have a good weekend everyone.
 
NOOA Bouys

Hi All

Was suprised that the instrumented NOOA bouy sand ships had not been mentioned in any of the forums. You get wind speed, direction,and sea state, "live"(well nearly) so a good indication of the what weather you might expect or whats coming your way is indicated. In the Irish see they are a bit few and far between, theres one on the gas rig in Morcombe bay and one halfway between Holyhead and Howth. Has anybody had experiance of these bouys or is it too good to be true?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Cheers

Nigel
 
I would totally agree, we deliberately rarely listen to the Clyde Inshore water forcast, it is almost always too pessimistic, +2 on most wind forcasts.

Not sure if that is deliberate to keep boating to a minimum or being more charitable, is it as it says "up to 10 miles offshorse" - 10 mile off of the outer shore of Jura could be rather different to the more sheltered area.

I always use the BBC weather for Oban + a glance at the internet pressure charts, to cover my area and that serves me well.

Regards mikej
 
Philiz said:
From what I've seen of them they're pretty hit and miss too! Besides, the screen's too ruddy small. :p
Click to expand...

I use dialup when i'm in a wifiless area. I don't pay for a dongle and don't pay a monthly sub for mobile broadband. I just plug my phone into a USB port and use it as you would a modem. It's a Vodafone contract phone, doesn't cost much at all to just check the weather and email etc.
 
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