Inshore Forecast - Channel Islands

[Stoshak]

Frank

I am very satisfied with the Jersey forecasts, as stated.

I have no doubt that a dumbing down of their product would result from a high level attempt at consistency between the products.

The question of performance assessment and regulation remains a mystery to me.

I did O Level English in 1957, so the art of precis is not foreign to me. I must confess though that my opinions have never been sought by forecaster recruitment boards.


marklucas

I am somewhat surprised by your response.

With the greatest respect, the extent of CI area of the Inshore Forecast is of the same order as other areas. And the quality of forecast for that area is of consistently higher quality than the others.

I do not share the view that the Met Office has to cover a wider area and must therefore be permitted to supply a superficial and less useful product.

The tasks of the two organisations are identical - to provide an accurate forecast in the interests of safety at sea.

Your final comment re never relying on one source of information is a council of perfection not often available when actually sailing. We are frequently left with only the Met Office forecast and the evidence of our own eyes.


PS Check out the current Inshore Forecast for Channel Islands and compare it with Selsy Bill to Lyme Regis. Chalk and cheese

 

[Sgeir]

PS Check out the current Inshore Forecast for Channel Islands and compare it with Selsy Bill to Lyme Regis. Chalk and cheese

OK, I'm not criticising your point of view and obviously missing something, but precisely what is it about the CI reporting method makes such a difference? Apart from, that is, from the absence of any information about the weather and visibility;

Selsey Bill to Lyme Regis

24 hour forecast: West or southwest 4 or 5. Slight or moderate. Showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor at first.

Outlook: West or southwest 4 or 5. Slight or moderate. Showers, thundery for a time. Good, occasionally moderate.

Channel Islands

24 hour forecast: . Southwest or west 3 to 4 occasionally 5 tomorrow morning. . Slight becoming moderate in the north tomorrow.

Outlook: . West 4 to 5. . Mainly moderate.

 

[Stoshak]

I can only assume that the Met Off heavies have given Jersey a seeing to behind the bike sheds. Or perhaps the task has already been outsourced.

The version of the Inshore forecast to which I referred was valid this morning, not the very latest one which you have found.

I am sorry, I should have quoted at the time, like you did.

 

[wotayottie]

The OP spoke too soon. This is the latest inshore waters for the CI

"For coastal areas up to 12 miles offshore from 1200 UTC Mon 09 Jul until 1200 UTC Tue 10 Jul
24 hour forecast:

Wind
.
Sea State
Southwest or west 3 to 4 occasionally 5 tomorrow morning.
Weather
.
Visibility
Slight becoming moderate in the north tomorrow.

Outlook for the following 24 hours:

Wind
.
Sea State
West 4 to 5.
Weather
.
Visibility
Mainly moderate.

and for Lyme Regis

24 hour forecast:

Wind
West or southwest 4 or 5, decreasing 3 at times in Lyme Bay.
Sea State
Slight or moderate.
Weather
Showers.
Visibility
Good, occasionally moderate at first.

Outlook for the following 24 hours:

Wind
West 4 or 5, occasionally 6 later.
Sea State
Slight or moderate.
Weather
Showers.
Visibility
Good."

 

[Stoshak]

Wotayottie

I refer you to my response above

 

[Sgeir]

I can only assume that the Met Off heavies have given Jersey a seeing to behind the bike sheds. Or perhaps the task has already been outsourced.

Who knows, but I checked the forecasts when I first read the original thread, and then again yesterday, and I confess that I was as mystified then as I am now; I really don't see that there's much of a difference.

Incidentally, I also disagree with Boathook. As it happens we keep a written radio log as well as usually having the forecast captured on Navtex. Our current log is the boat, but looking through an old log, "at first" and "later" are standard parlance.

 

[guernseyman]

The forecast area for Jersey Met is comparable with sea area Portland, the main difference being the exclusion/inclusion of the strip from 50°N to the English coast. The Jersey Met forecast area extends over to Normandy and down to Brittany and is thus valuable for the longer passages as well as intra-island.

 

[franksingleton]

Jersey Met is independent; their staff are responsible to the States of Jersey, or whatever is the correct form of words. Like all Met Services, they have access to forecasts from all other Met services. That includes the UK, Météo France, and ECMWF. What they do is their affair but, starting from the same information it is inevitable that their forecasts will not differ greatly from the French or British. Indeed, if they had any significant difference of opinion then they can always pick up the telephone and discuss the situation.

The inclusion of Hersey in http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/inshore_forecast.html#ChannelIslands is intended as a service to all sailors much as the inclusion of the Isle of Man, another independent service. The Jersey forecast also appears on NAVTEX 490 kHz.

It can be extremely difficult to write a forecasts in a limited number of words. The whole Shipping Forecast has to be 330 words maximum. BBC reading speed is 110 WPM. When I had to write my first 30 word summary to cover the whole of the UK I really did not know where to start.