Hurricane Dean

[Neddie_Seagoon]

Anyone know how the St. Vincent islands fared?

 

[Bejasus]

Martinique and St.Lucia appear to have been the worst hit so far, with all the banana plantations and 70% of the sugar cane on Martinique being wiped out.

Dean is now a Cat 4 and will likely be a Cat 5 by the end of today. Part of Domenican Republic and Haiti next, but it looks like Jamaica is going to take a direct Cat 5 thrashing.

 

[lenseman]

ZCZC 169
WTNT24 KNHC 180833
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 67.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE 75SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 67.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.6N 69.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 72.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.6N 76.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 67.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


NNNN


http://severe.worldweather.org/tc/cgn/pop-ups/tc/miami02420070818232.meta

 

[Csail]

Looks prety bad, last time i was there we suffered hurricane Ivan offshore. Not too funny. (on a 33' yacht!)

 

[Lanzarote]

I whish the best for the people and their lives

 

[Bajansailor]

St Vincent and the Grenadines should have been fine, as they are well south of the track that Dean took - he passed about 40 miles north of Barbados I think, heading west, and we had probably 40 - 50 knots here, not much damages to the island thankfully. A few boats were washed ashore though. We were very lucky.

 

[Neddie_Seagoon]

Thanks for that Martin. Reassuring.

 

[jeremyshaw]

Been watching Dean for several days now, and it's 'lucky' that passed between St. Lucia and Martinique as a Cat 2. However Martinique was in the dangerous quadrant and I suspect the yachts in Le Marin (and any sadly still at anchor in St. Anne) would have come off badly. There's little news from Le Marin which is a bad sign - extensive damage to buildings is reported in the south of the island as well as trashed crops has has been mentioned.

Even as far away as Curacao/Bonaire potential storm force winds are forecast and yachts are taking precautions.

Martinique, as a department of France, has the advantage of the wealth of that nation behind it. Much more worrying is what happens when Dean hits Jamaica, which has not had a bad storm for some years and is poorer and doubtless ill prepared.

For those who want to track Dean Jeff Masters blog on wunderground.com is good
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
and Ambiental have neat plugin for Google Earth which tracks and plots storms automatically here
http://www.ambiental.co.uk/stormweb/HTML/Tracker/frontpage3_main_static.php

 

[Rum_Pirate]

Fortunately and thankfully we, St.Kitts, have been spared the onslaught of Hurricane Dean.

We had 30 odd mph with 50mph absolute tops gusts, a little rain and large swells.

The Marriott Hotel closed their restaurants and bars and sent guests to their rooms with tuna sandwiches and an apple and told them to stay there. Must be official hotel hurricane policy.
I went out to a beach bar and had a beer or two.
Today the swells continue and the sun is shining again.

However unfortunately Hurricane Dean continues to strengthen as it crosses the Caribbean Sea.

It is now a Catagory 4 and growing. That is truely frightening.

I feel for all those in its path and remember them in my prayers.

If you are interested have a look here

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704.html

It gives a lot of info including satellite pics.

 

[pelicanpete]

Yes, these poor people need all the luck they can get.
I spend from August thru October every year on tenterhooks, waiting for news via NOAA's web-alert service of the next big one. I endured both Francis and Jeanne (which followed almost identical tracks just two weeks apart in 2005). Hence my house in Florida got badly damaged but my bigger concern was my house on the beach just a 100 ft from the ocean in Abaco, northern Bahamas. It's built on stilts but the damage at ground level was considerable. Apart from a ripped bimini, my boat faired well. It wasn't tied to my dock at the time. Just as well, the dock was picked up by a huge storm surge and tossed 300 yards away! Two storms, two houses = 4 direct hits. I don't want another year like 2005! I really feel for these poor soles in Dean's path! Good luck, guys. I'm so pleased to be in the U.K.