Hurricane Bill

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nathanlee

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The dregs of it are apparently hitting the British Isles tomorrow, but XCweather isn't showing anything about it up here on teh east coast, near peterhead.

I trust XC infinitely more that the met office, but wondered what other peoples opinions are? Do I tuck in somewhere and risk missing the good day's sailing that XC is promising, or do I ignore the met and go for it?

Of course, this is my choice, and mine alone, but I'm curious.
 
Met Office tend to be doom and gloom merchants where as the sun always shines for XC...
Have you looked at Windguru?
 
fireball said:
Met Office tend to be doom and gloom merchants where as the sun always shines for XC...
Have you looked at Windguru?
Click to expand...

No, gave up with windguru. They were really good, but only cover the windsurfing areas, and there doesn't seem to be much out of peterhead :)
 
Have you tried GRIB.US? I know you have to register and download an app ... but it's pretty good and has been reliable down in the south
 
With the forecast track of the low, you should be OK.....

BUT......

Its only got to be a little out, and it could get very messy very quickly....

Caution is a sensible strategy looking at the current gribs IMHO.

There will be plenty of other good sailing days...
 
nathanlee said:
The dregs of it are apparently hitting the British Isles tomorrow, but XCweather isn't showing anything about it up here on teh east coast, near peterhead.

I trust XC infinitely more that the met office, but wondered what other peoples opinions are? Do I tuck in somewhere and risk missing the good day's sailing that XC is promising, or do I ignore the met and go for it?

Of course, this is my choice, and mine alone, but I'm curious.
Click to expand...


http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

If you step through the day with XC you can see why nothing being reported up there in Kippertoon. It seems you are in the lee and the gusts that travel north will be offshore so stay in port!
 
nathanlee said:
No, gave up with windguru. They were really good, but only cover the windsurfing areas, and there doesn't seem to be much out of peterhead :)
Click to expand...

You can create your own spots by clicking on a google map display - at least thats what I do, but perhaps thats only on the paid version.

XC uses the GFS model, so the same as the basic windguru one. If you pay for windguru, you get the WRF model, which has a narrower grid for the model points, but over-estimates. I think the GFS underestimates.
 
just looked at Grib and agree with your conclusion - I'd only go out if it were for a short hop, but then I've got a stonking great diesel to help me! ;)
I'd keep a look out for Friday too ...
 
nathanlee said:
No, gave up with windguru. They were really good, but only cover the windsurfing areas, and there doesn't seem to be much out of peterhead :)
Click to expand...

Nearest spot to Peterhead on WindGuru looks to be Thurso, which is a bit further north, innit? Assuming a similar prognosis, they seem to be saying 5-6, with maybe a bit of 7 to start with, but mostly up the chuff. Sea state might be "un peu agité" as they say in France.

Borderline, I reckon.
 
nathanlee said:
The dregs of it are apparently hitting the British Isles tomorrow, but XCweather isn't showing anything about it up here on the east coast, near Peterhead.

I trust XC infinitely more that the met office, but wondered what other peoples opinions are? Do I tuck in somewhere and risk missing the good day's sailing that XC is promising, or do I ignore the met and go for it?

Of course, this is my choice, and mine alone, but I'm curious.
Click to expand...

I just had a look at Theyr, which I subscribe to these days. I've found it very good this year, the only ones which come close have been the inshore waters forecast and the WRF forecast on Windguru. It shows you getting no more than a south to south easterly F5 (mostly offshore) later tomorrow, with the worst of the wind being on the West coast today, then across northern England and out into the North Sea tomorrow, where it shows SE 6. Then it goes westerly and light, although the next one on Saturday looks rather worse, stronger and westerly in your neck of the woods. But it's only a forecast, probably change again by tomorrow.

It looks like getting a bit hairy for a while up there, are you planning to get to Shetland for Up Helly Aa?

P.S.
Sorry, just read it and it's a bit ambiguous. F4 inshore, F5-6 offshore
 
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Another vote here for Theyr but I access their wind maps via magicseaweed for free.

As to the OP, tomorrow is a tricky call, defo a major system whacking the UK tomorrow but magicseaweed shows this system hitting to the south and turning flabby. Should be a nice but wet southerly F4 to 5 up in the Peterhead area BUT if it tracks a touch further north and keeps its isobars regimented then Peterhead could see something very different. Best set off after lunch when the reality is more clear.

Thursday looks good but get well tucked in somewhere for Friday because you're going to suffer strong northerlies up to gale force.
 
rickp said:
You can create your own spots by clicking on a google map display - at least thats what I do, but perhaps thats only on the paid version.

XC uses the GFS model, so the same as the basic windguru one. If you pay for windguru, you get the WRF model, which has a narrower grid for the model points, but over-estimates. I think the GFS underestimates.
Click to expand...

Would very much agree with this. I love XC but does tend to underestimate. Particularly this summer. Nice to get feedback from people of this forum.
 
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