HEALTH WARNING: 5-day forecast

[celandine]

As I write this (Sunday 12th 21.00) the Met office have forecast gusts of as much as 90 mph for tomorrow (SE England). However, if you look at their 5-day forecast, which you might find on the BBC page, or from various other links, you will see that there, with less than 12 hours to go, they are forecasting - SW 10 mph.
Are they all asleep in the "5-day" office? Perhaps someone should wake them before someone gets drowned.

Mick

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[zephyrsailor]

sat in la coruña, forcasts of force 11. lovely sunny blue sky no wind yesterday, windy over night. suitably annoying.

<hr width=100% size=1><font color=purple><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.yachting-school.com>http://www.yachting-school.com</A></font color=purple>

 

[Rabbie]

Mick. I emailed them this morning asking for an explanation. Newhaven is showing easterly winds, 13mph!. Inshore waters forecast is up to F9!.
Rab.

<hr width=100% size=1>There is nothing wrong with sex on television. Unless you fall off!..

 

[Captain_Chaos]

On Radio 5 this morning John Kettley acknowledged that the forecasts had been wrong

<hr width=100% size=1>My drinking team has a sailing problem

 

[TheBoatman]

Currently wind at Sheppey is NW 10mph

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[steve_cronin]

It\'s going south

..according to the latest BBC.

Steve Cronin

<hr width=100% size=1>The above is, like any other post here, only a personal opinion

 

[AndrewB]

I\'m really miffed.

Bottled out while sailing back from LIBS to Dover on Sunday, as a result of the forecast. (Thank you, RNLI Thames RIB that came out specially to warn us, we did know though). Now we are cowering in expensive Gillingham marina until next weekend. We did get a couple of gale force squalls Sunday morning but since then, very little except rain.

 

[Rabbie]

Sent this am.
Dear BBC Weather.
Inshore waters forecast from 0530 12/1/04 .........
'From North Foreland to St. Catherine's Point. Wind: south 6 or 7 soon veering west gale 8 or severe gale 9, decreasing southwest 5 or 6 later rain at times. Visibility: moderate or good'

Your 5 Day Forecast commencing Monday 12/1/04 at Newhaven .............. Wind - Easterly - 13 mph.

Can you please explain this discrepancy, which I must say, is not unusual?

Reply.
It all changed about 5 o'clock this morning. All the supercomputers and PhDs that the Met Office, NOAA, Meteo France etc have can't always cope with chaos - so yes, they got it wrong. It just changed and moved, and all the extrapolations went wrong.

Bernard Newnham
Duty Weather Producer.




<hr width=100% size=1>There is nothing wrong with sex on television. Unless you fall off!..

 

[celandine]

Rabbie, regarding the Met Office reply to you, this is of course just a smoke screen, since to say that it was just one of those tricky ones suddenly at 5.00 am is nonsence. The fact remains that last Sunday night if you looked at the Met Office's own website, you would find that they were predicting winds up to 90mph cyclonic, or they were predicting 10 mph SW - it all depended upon which part of their web site you happened to look at.

Mick

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