Geomagnetic solars storms

[Trident 24]

up to date sources

That article is 4 years old now. I know that Wikipedia is not the most reliable source on the internet but that 2006 NASA article is the one being referred to here:

"The last solar maximum was in 2000. The next solar maximum is currently predicted to occur in May 2013 and to be one of the weakest cycles since 1928.[2][3]

The unreliability of solar maxima predictions is demonstrated in that NASA had previously predicted the solar maximum for 2010/2011 and possibly to occur as late as 2012. Previously, on March 10, 2006, NASA researchers had announced that the next solar maximum would be the strongest since the historic maximum in 1958 in which the northern lights could be seen as far south as Rome, approximately 42° north of the equator.[4]"

These are more recent Nasa web pages:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/

 

[alan_d]

About a week ago BBC news carried a story about the Sun going through an unusually quiet spell.

Sun's 'quiet period' explained .

I guess headlines like Most Things Generally OK or Sun Likely To Rise Tomorrow As Usual don't sell newspapers.

 

[Lady Campanula]

Would it not be more feasible to hunt and eat the packs of rabid dogs roaming the countryside?

They'll be hunting you. And are probably rather better at it.

Have you ever had to deal with just ONE rabid dog?

 

[Pete7]

National Geographic HD 1700 hrs today

Programme on Nationl Geographic HD at 1700 hrs today on Solar Storms. Unfortunately we aren't posh enough to have the HD bit so no sound just pictures.

I suppose it depends on how big the bang/blast/pulse is. Assuming its not a complete melt down which is covered in the other thread running on here, what could you reasonably expect to plan for, before at least some of the infrastructure is back up and running. The only thing I can think of was the recovery after the tanker drivers strike in 2000. Would the statement a week long strike and another week to recover before supplies were back in the shops be true? I was in Belfast at the time which wasn't affected.

A couple of weeks or even a month on a yacht until some water, electricity and supplies start getting though ought to be survivable. Any longer and and its complete melt down, a subject for the other thread.

Pete

 

[BruceDanforth]

It wouldn't necessarily be a worse or less valid life if civilisation collapsed overnight, just different.

 

[sarabande]

"Would the statement a week long strike and another week to recover before supplies were back in the shops be true? "


in Operational Risk, there's a lot of talk about "the backlog trap".

Much complicated maths about it if you care to read, but basically, for every one day of breakdown, you need five days to catch up that one day, so you have to commit masses of extra staff to deliver the five days' work, while your normal staff carry on with day TWO.

By the end of a full week, decisions about which normal processes (including ones subject to penalty clauses) can be cut or ignored, will have to be made at a very high level.

You can't catch up unless you take short cuts or add lots of manhours.

For many JIT deliveries at local food shops, it would mean that short -term food such as bread and eggs would not be available, and there's enough evidence around to be sure that as soon as some shelves are empty, panic (irrational) buying sets in, with loo rolls and fly spray being bought by the basket load.

It would be much easier to hijack a delivery lorry going to a rural shop than queue for hours for a loaf.