Forecasts
- Thread starter bilbobaggins
- Start date
srm
Well-Known Member
Whats the problem?
I, for one, have had a very good summer - epoxy coated the hull plus coppercoat that needs to be kept dry while curing during May, in the open in Plymouth. Only a few wet days before we started and again 10 days or so later when finished, and at begining of June - inconvenient as launched and putting sails on etc. Sailed half way around Britain in June up west coat, only problem was excessive motoring due to light southerly winds, though did have a few days good sailing - again very little rain, though my crew who had never seen the Isle of Skye still hasn't despite motoring the length of its west coast in poor vis (but no rain).
July onwards spent beyond the northern edge of the Scottish mainland and everyone saying what an exceptionally good summer it has been.
I, for one, have had a very good summer - epoxy coated the hull plus coppercoat that needs to be kept dry while curing during May, in the open in Plymouth. Only a few wet days before we started and again 10 days or so later when finished, and at begining of June - inconvenient as launched and putting sails on etc. Sailed half way around Britain in June up west coat, only problem was excessive motoring due to light southerly winds, though did have a few days good sailing - again very little rain, though my crew who had never seen the Isle of Skye still hasn't despite motoring the length of its west coast in poor vis (but no rain).
July onwards spent beyond the northern edge of the Scottish mainland and everyone saying what an exceptionally good summer it has been.
alan_d
Well-Known Member
Don't, or you will wish you hadn't. (It is an anti-global warming polemic, followed by polemical responses from the other camp, all generating much more heat than light.)
BelleSerene
Well-Known Member
Is there an alternative source of weather forecasts - which DOESN'T take HM met office data as its source?
sarabande
Well-Known Member
BS
do you know these people?
http://www.ecmwf.int/
this chap ?
http://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Home
this site ?
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/tempusfugit/marine/gmdss.htm
do you know these people?
http://www.ecmwf.int/
this chap ?
http://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Home
this site ?
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/tempusfugit/marine/gmdss.htm
bilbobaggins
N/A
The Euro Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting is in Reading, just a few miles from Bracknell. It's really a UK Met Office 'outpost'.
The excellent 'Franks-Weather' is also mostly UK Met Office output, as its excellent progenitor is a retired Met Office High Priest, and keeps the faith.
The third one? Predominantly UKHO output, some rebadged, together with some other nations' stuff. The High Priest here is rather more ecumenical in his reach.
bilbobaggins
N/A
Certainly part is as described - what else would you expect from the DT? More expenses scandals?
However, perhaps the significant stuff is the revelation of the very strong 'agenda-led' influences at the top. Give that a moment's thought.....
Twister_Ken
Well-Known Member
"The Euro Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting is in Reading, just a few miles from Bracknell. It's really a UK Met Office 'outpost'."
The Meat Orifice decamped from Bracknell to Exeter some years back. Apparently the Exeter HQ has no windows, or if so they are arranged so that it is impossible for forecasters to look out of them.
The Meat Orifice decamped from Bracknell to Exeter some years back. Apparently the Exeter HQ has no windows, or if so they are arranged so that it is impossible for forecasters to look out of them.
bilbobaggins
N/A
Many thanks, TK.
I'm aware that the UKMO had decamped to sunnier climes many moons ago, so the ECMWF building is not quite as handy for a quick 'I'm just popping over the road to consult' as it once was.
The £80m. new building is quite a success. It has won a BREEM Award. Its contents, however, of several supercomputers use more electricity than the town around it..... and that's set to increase. Something about 'making omelettes without breaking eggs'.....
Anyway, it certainly has a window or two. Lots of 'em - although my spies tell me the offices with fine views out over the Devon hills and Exe estuary are staffed by PR and media types, and 'consultants'. The forecasters are kept down in the cellars. Apparently they don't like to come out in daylight.
....and a Met Office choir, for the Company Song.
Now we know they're all singing from the same hymnsheet.
sarabande
Well-Known Member
BB - alias Hon. COGS of the Dissident Met Forecasters Union and The Warminster Road Irregulars.
ECMWF and Met Office both run IBM kit, but I believe it's separate installations (I'll have a word with Mike to find out)
Just as a contribution to perspective, here is a graphic of world computing power.
[/IMG]
NOAA might be a better source ? They have a more outgoing policy of involvement with universities, commerce and a more multi-disciplinary scientific approach than our beloved Met Office. The links, especially with NASA, are bound to provide a more rigorous peer-reviewing function.
ECMWF and Met Office both run IBM kit, but I believe it's separate installations (I'll have a word with Mike to find out)
Just as a contribution to perspective, here is a graphic of world computing power.
NOAA might be a better source ? They have a more outgoing policy of involvement with universities, commerce and a more multi-disciplinary scientific approach than our beloved Met Office. The links, especially with NASA, are bound to provide a more rigorous peer-reviewing function.
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Allan
Well-Known Member
Although I am an aged hippy, I am still on the fence when it comes to climate change. I am in no doubt we are messing up our planet and we should all do our best to stop the bad practises we are all guilty of.
After reading the Telegraph article I can't see how the met office giving incorrect forcasts could help the argument for climate change. Surely, if they want to have an affect on public opinion, it would be better to say "this summer will be cold and wet". That way if we have a hot summer they can say "climate change was even worse than we thought". My opinion, in this case, is either, that the fact that British weather is unpredictable has caught the met office out yet again or they are trying to cover up real climate change.
Allan
After reading the Telegraph article I can't see how the met office giving incorrect forcasts could help the argument for climate change. Surely, if they want to have an affect on public opinion, it would be better to say "this summer will be cold and wet". That way if we have a hot summer they can say "climate change was even worse than we thought". My opinion, in this case, is either, that the fact that British weather is unpredictable has caught the met office out yet again or they are trying to cover up real climate change.
Allan
bilbobaggins
N/A
Cerddinen
Well-Known Member
Weather forecasting is fundamentally problematic. There is evidence that the climate is "chaotic" in the technical sense of the term (meaning: the future path is very sensitive to the initial starting point). In fact, the meteorologist Lorenz discovered chaos before it was introduced into the mathematical literature and without knowing what his work implied. What this means in practice is that any forecast will diverge from the actual weather very quickly. This leads to a paradox. If the model is correct and climate is chaotic then the model cannot accurately predict - no matter how complex the model or how large is the computer.
Good discussions of these issues can be found in "Does God play dice?" by Ian Stewart and "Taken by storm" by Christopher Essex and Ross McKitrick.
The claim that long-term climate change forecasts are nonsense should not be treated as a claim that climate change is not happening. Neither logically implies the other.
Good discussions of these issues can be found in "Does God play dice?" by Ian Stewart and "Taken by storm" by Christopher Essex and Ross McKitrick.
The claim that long-term climate change forecasts are nonsense should not be treated as a claim that climate change is not happening. Neither logically implies the other.
Jack @ Bosun's Locker
Member
The Met office's 24-hour forecasts are usually quite accurate.
Forecasting the weather for periods in advance of 24-hours though becomes exponentially more complex*
*I once heard... something to do with the millions of chaotic variables acting over a longer period of time...
Forecasting the weather for periods in advance of 24-hours though becomes exponentially more complex*
*I once heard... something to do with the millions of chaotic variables acting over a longer period of time...
LadyInBed
Well-Known Member
Weather
Weather poses three questions for the sailor:
- Weather it will rain
- Weather it will be sunny
- Weather it will be windy
Indications to answers often ascertained by sticking an arm out of a hatch
Weather poses three questions for the sailor:
- Weather it will rain
- Weather it will be sunny
- Weather it will be windy
Indications to answers often ascertained by sticking an arm out of a hatch
Genoa
Well-Known Member
According to many in other threads we should ignore it all anyway. It is electronic and comes to us via a VHF aerial. You should just look out using your Mk1 eyeball and take bearings on the clouds.
Cantata
Well-Known Member
Not if you have been sailing on the East Coast these last 2 years or so, they're not. They are, on the whole, hopelessly wrong and therefore not fit for purpose (as seems to be the popular phrase for Gov departments doing a lousy job).
Cantata
Well-Known Member
Doesn't mean a lot to me. I worked on IBM/360, 256k of memory which was made of little iron rings threaded through with wire by Spanish ladies, who were apparently very good at it. The word 'megabyte' was not in the dictionary.
KellysEye
Well-Known Member
Don't forget the qualification that comes with the forecast - this is on the Meteo France ones we use quite often.
Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE.
Sea : Total significant
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here
- maximum waves may be up to twice the significant height.
The NOAA forecast explains significant wave height.
WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE.
Sea : Total significant
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here
- maximum waves may be up to twice the significant height.
The NOAA forecast explains significant wave height.
WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
