Does anyone ever go to sea on a metcheck forecast

[DogWatch]

When I was younger I used to search about for a favourable forecast, the Liverpool Echo often used to be the good news weather, closely followed by ceefax and then the R4 doom and gloom. If only metcheck had been around, I would have spent more time catching weavers in F2-3s rather than what was actually happening outside the window.

whereas

Shipping forecast

The shipping forecast issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, on Saturday 28 April 2012 at 2315 UTC

There are warnings of gales in Tyne, Dogger, German Bight, Humber, Thames, Dover, Wight, Portland, Plymouth, Biscay, FitzRoy, Sole, Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea, Shannon, Faeroes, South-east Iceland.

Sole, Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea

North or northeast 7 to severe gale 9, perhaps storm 10 later. Moderate or rough, occasionally very rough. Showers then rain. Good, becoming poor

or;

Inshore Waters Forecast

The inshore waters forecast issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency

For coastal areas up to 12 miles offshore from Sunday 29 April 2012 at 0001 UTC until Monday 30 April 2012 at 0000 UTC
General Situation at 0001 UTC on Sun 29 Apr 2012

Pressure will remain generally high over and to the north of Scotland. A vigorous low and its associated fronts, will move northwestwards, to affect England and Wales, with gales or severe gales for many central and southern areas.

St Davids Head to Great Orme Head including St Georges Channel - Strong winds are forecast

24 hour forecast: Northerly or northeasterly 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9. Moderate or rough, becoming very rough in south. Fair, then occasional rain. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.

Outlook: Northeasterly veering easterly 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9 at first in south, veering southeasterly 5 or 6 later. Moderate or rough becoming slight or moderate. Occasional rain in south, otherwise mainly fair. Good, occasionally moderate.

XCW is offering 36-45mph for Sunday and most others I have looked at are singing the same tune.

This is not a one off, metcheck seem to have a cut off around F4 and the wind never rises above that. For the past 5 or so years I have been looking at metcheck for their opinion, it has always underestimated the wind strength, by at least 2 points. A cursory look at the 24, 36 and 48hr charts without even measuring the the isobars shows it is another weekend to stay on the mooring.

Is it any wonder that a drive to our harbour during spring/summer we pass many miserable looking people towing their cuddy boats home along the A55 as metcheck suggested they would be supping warm tea at anchor enjoying a days fishing.

I am never going to get my sails bent on at this rate. In fact if they are not on by the end of May I am considering slipping the boat for 12 months.

 

[FWB]

Forget Metcheck, why not just look at the surface pressure charts....
http://www.mwis.org.uk/synoptic.php
or
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm
They will give you a pretty good idea of the situation for the next 48hrs, beyond that an idea of what might happen.
Not the whole story I know, but at least you won't be caught out.

 

[Bru]

Used to be a Metcheck subscriber. It used to be about the best weather site going. Neither applies any more! In fact, Metcheck isn't even on my list of weather sites any more

 

[Lucky Duck]

In all fairness to them they can also produce quality forecasts like this one

http://www.ybw.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3120450&postcount=10

 

[Talulah]

Consign Metcheck to the bin.
I used to use it all the time. Now I use http://www.xcweather.co.uk

 

[chubby]

I have given up on metcheck having been a fan, winds never realistic.

I think it is all down to models and areas covered.

Metcheck goes for the average but we experience the gusts, the shipping and inshore forecasts go for anything in the whole area at anytime in the forecast.

The selsey bill to lyme regis inshore is a case in point, could easily be F8 of the bill, st cats or selsey bill but much less up chi or portsouth harbours or soton water.

I like xc weather, sailing weather info service and simon keelings musings and look at the charts from the met office and ecmwf.

what the offical forecasts dont tell is what is round the corner, it might be ok to cross the channel but you would never get back within the week of your holiday. once the met office said "ridge of high pressure" on a tuesday but xc weather etc warned of the deep low at the end of the week.

 

[yesod]

This is not a one off, metcheck seem to have a cut off around F4 and the wind never rises above that.

http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/years-man-groomed-boy-14-rape-abuse/story-11835668-detail/story.html

 

[BarryH]

I went down to the boat on the strength of both Metcheck and weather online with a view to moving it out of the Hamble. Went yesterday (sat) so I could spend the night on it to be able to catch the right time of the tide in the morning today.

What a crock of cr&p both sites gave. Forcasting 2/3 gusting 4. I thought excellent, a nice bimble round. I had my suspitions that they were wrong last night when I was getting rolled out of my bunk. 2/3 my arse, try 6 gusting 8. Not all a total loss as I could get the boat ready. Oh and it was persistantly droughting all night......glad I cleared the cockpit drains!

I've deleted the above 2 sites from the favorites tab on my machine......

 

[DogWatch]

Forget Metcheck, why not just look at the surface pressure charts....
http://www.mwis.org.uk/synoptic.php
or
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm
They will give you a pretty good idea of the situation for the next 48hrs, beyond that an idea of what might happen.
Not the whole story I know, but at least you won't be caught out.

what's a surface pressure chart and how does it work?

 

[VicS]

what's a surface pressure chart and how does it work?

Its a chart of the barometric pressure

You use the Geostrophic scales in the top LH corner to gauge the wind strength from the distance apart of the (4mb) isobars

 

[FWB]

what's a surface pressure chart and how does it work?

Those links I posted will show you approaching fronts and give you an idea of the strength of the wind. The closer the isobars, the stronger the wind.

 

[DogWatch]

Did no-one read my OP. I didn't say I couldn't read weather, in fact I alluded to the 24, 36 and 48hr charts corresponding to the metcheck window. I didn't say I got caught out either, I don't use metcheck. I just remember how often people praise metcheck as an accurate weather site and more often put down the met office.

I asked the question on surface pressure charts tongue-in-cheek as I felt just a little patronised by the suggestion that I had no idea what a pressure chart was. I thought people may have seen what I was doing, but thanks for the explanation away.

 

[FWB]

Did no-one read my OP. I didn't say I couldn't read weather, in fact I alluded to the 24, 36 and 48hr charts corresponding to the metcheck window. I didn't say I got caught out either, I don't use metcheck. I just remember how often people praise metcheck as an accurate weather site and more often put down the met office.

I asked the question on surface pressure charts tongue-in-cheek as I felt just a little patronised by the suggestion that I had no idea what a pressure chart was. I thought people may have seen what I was doing, but thanks for the explanation away.

Did not mean to patronise at all.
If you can read the charts why on earth use Metcheck ?

 

[DogWatch]

Did not mean to patronise at all.
If you can read the charts why on earth use Metcheck ?

I DON'T

aarrgh!

 

[FWB]

When I was younger I used to search about for a favourable forecast, the Liverpool Echo often used to be the good news weather, closely followed by ceefax and then the R4 doom and gloom. If only metcheck had been around, I would have spent more time catching weavers in F2-

So why did you say if only Metcheck had been around ?

 

[xyachtdave]

I feel your pain......

The other question is of course 'does anyone come back after going to sea on a met check forecast?'

 

[VicS]

Did no-one read my OP. I didn't say I couldn't read weather, in fact I alluded to the 24, 36 and 48hr charts corresponding to the metcheck window. I didn't say I got caught out either, I don't use metcheck. I just remember how often people praise metcheck as an accurate weather site and more often put down the met office.

I asked the question on surface pressure charts tongue-in-cheek as I felt just a little patronised by the suggestion that I had no idea what a pressure chart was. I thought people may have seen what I was doing, but thanks for the explanation away.

Very sorry. I saw the question but I did not notice the "tongue in cheek" smiley

 

[DogWatch]

So why did you say if only Metcheck had been around ?

I didn't put my first OP paragraph very well. When I was starting to go to sea alone, fishing with a friend at around 13yrs, we were often breaking other peoples boats (I am far more cautious now I have to pay for stuff).

Anyhow, if the outlook on the R4 forecast looked grim we would always go looking for a better one, any one, so long as it was better. As my observation when looking in at metcheck, is they always underestimate... it would have been handy to have such a 'good news' forecast back then. But in 1983 there was little choice, R4, bbc, ceefax and the then 'good news' forecast in the Liverpool Echo.

Or to put it another way, metcheck is pants!

 

[DogWatch]

In all fairness to them they can also produce quality forecasts like this one

http://www.ybw.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3120450&postcount=10

That kinda blows my F4 max limit out the window, a little bit anyway lol

 

[DogWatch]

Consign Metcheck to the bin.
I used to use it all the time. Now I use http://www.xcweather.co.uk

I like xcw for the observations especially when looking remote... but I am as often less satisfied with their forecast, for similar reasons to metcheck. Weather is what I would call a moving science, it takes a human to interpret the charts and make a judgement on the future path of a fast moving low for example. Met type people use experience such as, at differing times of the year that low might take a turn at Dover rather than follow the same path across the north sea that the computer generated forecast presumes.

I do wish however xcw would maintain a couple of weeks (at least) past observations so we can look back. Would certainly help my own forecasting, allowing me to mark myself.

On that note, I am desperate to join one of Simon's weather classes to get some insight into how they decide systems change direction etc.