tazzle
Well-Known Member
I remember a previous thread questioning whether carrying a defibrillator on board for an elderly crew member was a good idea or not. Having just had an email invitation to buy the new Philips HeartStart Home Defibrillator for £600 (why me? Do they know something I don't?) I found the following from an American doc that may be useful to anyone considering this bit of kit:
[ QUOTE ]
1) THE FACTS
These are the statistics you should know before believing any commentator on this opinion board. They are taken from the very authoritative "ACLS - Principles and Practice" of the American Heart Association, p 93, a highly recommended reading.
Rates of survival to hospital discharge for patients with witnessed ventricular fibrillation arrest:
No CPR, delayed defribillation (>10 minutes): 0-2% survive
Early CPR, Delayed defibrillation (>10 mn): 2-8% survive
Early CPR, Early defibrillation (7 mn): 20% survive
Early CPR, Very early defibrillation (4 mn): 30% survive
Public access defibrillation programs in airports and casinos have been able to break the 2 minutes to 1st shock barrier with survival rate of 50-70%
In supervised setting with extremely early defibrillation, 89% survive (based of 101 victims)
Nearly all neuroloogically intact survivors who in some studies number more than 90% had a ventricular tachyarrhythmia that was treated by early defibrillation.
Now ask yourself this: how long, realistically, do you think it would take:
1) for an ambulance (assuming the one closest to you is available at the time of calling) will reach your house, assuming no traffic and no difficulty finding your home
2) for the personnel to carry their equipment, introduce themselves, go to the room where the patient is
3) reevaluate the situation themselves, before, finally
4) decide to install the defibrillator and defibrille ?
(I live in a place in the country where it is not realistic to have an ambulance ARRIVE at my home in less than 20 mn under the best condition (at night with zero traffic), so in my case probability of survival to sudden cardiac arrest at home realistically is nil)
2) THE RISKS
Ok, a defibrillator might be useful if you have a ventricular fibrillation. But, what are the chance of you having one ?
(From Harrison's Principle of Internal Medicine, p 1618)
Sudden Cardiac Arrest probability:
Adolescent and young adults: 1/100,000
between 45 and 75 years: 1/750 (unselected population)
Male are 7x as likely to female to have a sudden cardiac arrest.
% of suddent cardiac arrest due to ventricular fibrillation: 65-80%
When all factored in, for an unselected male 45 to 75 the probability of ventricular fibrillation per year is somewhere near 0.08%.
For your defibrillator to be of any use, you would need all that your cardiac arrest due to a ventricular fibrillation occurs:
1) when you are not sleeping (about 1/3 chance)
2) when your defibrillator is nearby (? chance)
3) when someone is actually witnessing your cardiac arrest (1/2 ?)
4) and that witness knows a defibrillator is nearby, will think of using it, and knows how to use it (?)
Your probability of successful use is probably going down to 0.01% after all this.
Your altruism might crank it up to 0.03% to take into account middle-aged visitors and members of your family your defibrillator will help
THE COST
Now we can determine the cost per life saved:
Cost of machine per year (assuming 10 year depreciation) / (Probability per year of event (middle aged) x optimistic survival rate or 80%) (assuming the alternative is close to 0% survival)
$150 / 0.03% = $500,000 per male life saved
OTHER WAY TO CALCULATE IT
200,000 sudden cardiac arrest in the USA
Assuming every citizen out of 4 in the USA (250M/4) has a defibrillator ($1500/10 year depreciation=$150) (62.5M x $150= about $10,000M total cost) and that 1/10 cardiac arrest will be saved because 1/10 cardiac arrest will fullfill all the successfull condition (ventricular fibrillation, occurs while awake, near a knowledgeable adult, near a defibrillator, not in a car while driving, etc) then the cost per life saved would be: $10,000 Millions / (200,000 * 1/10) = $500,000 per life saved per year.
While I do see the usefulness and cost-effectiveness of the product for airports and other such public area, I am of the opinion that it is not cost effective for the average family.
A much more cost-effectively way to increase your longevity is simply to alter your diet.
[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1) THE FACTS
These are the statistics you should know before believing any commentator on this opinion board. They are taken from the very authoritative "ACLS - Principles and Practice" of the American Heart Association, p 93, a highly recommended reading.
Rates of survival to hospital discharge for patients with witnessed ventricular fibrillation arrest:
No CPR, delayed defribillation (>10 minutes): 0-2% survive
Early CPR, Delayed defibrillation (>10 mn): 2-8% survive
Early CPR, Early defibrillation (7 mn): 20% survive
Early CPR, Very early defibrillation (4 mn): 30% survive
Public access defibrillation programs in airports and casinos have been able to break the 2 minutes to 1st shock barrier with survival rate of 50-70%
In supervised setting with extremely early defibrillation, 89% survive (based of 101 victims)
Nearly all neuroloogically intact survivors who in some studies number more than 90% had a ventricular tachyarrhythmia that was treated by early defibrillation.
Now ask yourself this: how long, realistically, do you think it would take:
1) for an ambulance (assuming the one closest to you is available at the time of calling) will reach your house, assuming no traffic and no difficulty finding your home
2) for the personnel to carry their equipment, introduce themselves, go to the room where the patient is
3) reevaluate the situation themselves, before, finally
4) decide to install the defibrillator and defibrille ?
(I live in a place in the country where it is not realistic to have an ambulance ARRIVE at my home in less than 20 mn under the best condition (at night with zero traffic), so in my case probability of survival to sudden cardiac arrest at home realistically is nil)
2) THE RISKS
Ok, a defibrillator might be useful if you have a ventricular fibrillation. But, what are the chance of you having one ?
(From Harrison's Principle of Internal Medicine, p 1618)
Sudden Cardiac Arrest probability:
Adolescent and young adults: 1/100,000
between 45 and 75 years: 1/750 (unselected population)
Male are 7x as likely to female to have a sudden cardiac arrest.
% of suddent cardiac arrest due to ventricular fibrillation: 65-80%
When all factored in, for an unselected male 45 to 75 the probability of ventricular fibrillation per year is somewhere near 0.08%.
For your defibrillator to be of any use, you would need all that your cardiac arrest due to a ventricular fibrillation occurs:
1) when you are not sleeping (about 1/3 chance)
2) when your defibrillator is nearby (? chance)
3) when someone is actually witnessing your cardiac arrest (1/2 ?)
4) and that witness knows a defibrillator is nearby, will think of using it, and knows how to use it (?)
Your probability of successful use is probably going down to 0.01% after all this.
Your altruism might crank it up to 0.03% to take into account middle-aged visitors and members of your family your defibrillator will help
THE COST
Now we can determine the cost per life saved:
Cost of machine per year (assuming 10 year depreciation) / (Probability per year of event (middle aged) x optimistic survival rate or 80%) (assuming the alternative is close to 0% survival)
$150 / 0.03% = $500,000 per male life saved
OTHER WAY TO CALCULATE IT
200,000 sudden cardiac arrest in the USA
Assuming every citizen out of 4 in the USA (250M/4) has a defibrillator ($1500/10 year depreciation=$150) (62.5M x $150= about $10,000M total cost) and that 1/10 cardiac arrest will be saved because 1/10 cardiac arrest will fullfill all the successfull condition (ventricular fibrillation, occurs while awake, near a knowledgeable adult, near a defibrillator, not in a car while driving, etc) then the cost per life saved would be: $10,000 Millions / (200,000 * 1/10) = $500,000 per life saved per year.
While I do see the usefulness and cost-effectiveness of the product for airports and other such public area, I am of the opinion that it is not cost effective for the average family.
A much more cost-effectively way to increase your longevity is simply to alter your diet.
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