Calling all you weather gurus!

[TheBishop]

Am planning to deliver a Trader 50 from Southampton to Plymouth on the weekend of 27/28 March.

Plan is to get to Yarmouth on Friday night, then next day to Dartmouth, then Sunday to Plymouth by lunchtime to give time to get back to London by train.

Any of you gurus out there got a view on weather. 3 man crew is very experienced but all the same we can go another time as 10 hours to weather is no fun whatever the nutters say!

The Bishop

 

[mjf]

Far far too early to say

 

[gjgm]

Am planning to deliver a Trader 50 from Southampton to Plymouth on the weekend of 27/28 March.

Plan is to get to Yarmouth on Friday night, then next day to Dartmouth, then Sunday to Plymouth by lunchtime to give time to get back to London by train.

Any of you gurus out there got a view on weather. 3 man crew is very experienced but all the same we can go another time as 10 hours to weather is no fun whatever the nutters say!

The Bishop

Dont know if it is true, but I was told that the accuracy of a weather forecast deteriorates about 10pct a day.After 5 days its as likely to be right as wrong(50pct) which is why they stop at 5 days !
Nice story, anyway.

Maybe that means that at 2 weeks you at least know what the weather wont be

 

[DAKA]

Am planning to deliver a Trader 50 from Southampton to Plymouth on the weekend of 27/28 March.

Plan is to get to Yarmouth on Friday night, then next day to Dartmouth, then Sunday to Plymouth by lunchtime to give time to get back to London by train.

Any of you gurus out there got a view on weather. 3 man crew is very experienced but all the same we can go another time as 10 hours to weather is no fun whatever the nutters say!

The Bishop

Its not too early to start looking, in fact I believe today is the correct time to start to get a feel for the trends, it looks like early hours of very little wind will be calm but possible fog that will soon increase 6 SW , you will not come to any harm but around the headlands you may wish you werent out there.
Looks like an alarm set for 1/2 hour before first light and set off if not dense fog, plenty of safe havens anyway.

When passage planning I would not aim for Dartmouth, if it is comfortable why stop half way ,first stop is Plymouth.
If it is uncomfortable then you can find a safe haven.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010031700!!/




edit.

Waiting for crew is fine if the weather is favourable but if the calm weather window is on Friday then I would take advantage of it by casting off early Friday single handed(remember to ask your Insurers to add single handed sailing dawn to dusk).