Calling all east coast weather Guru's....this sounds worrying eh........

[adamstjohn]

Hi, have planned to go to Ostende from Ipswich, AM Friday, returning sunday or Monday ( I hope), sadly I cant change the dates, have looked at a few of the usual wind sites, I know that forecasts are not set in stone but really want to give myself the best chance of getting there or somewhere else (that's possibly the worrying bit tee hee), Any informed opinions welcome. I suppose its that first sail ( I generally like to sail and not use the motor too much) of the year nagging doubt thing.
Cheers all.

 

[Boz]

Everyone on here has their favourite, I use windfinder, net weather and zygrib for gribs. Generally I find the forecasts fairly accurate, but the timing often out by probably plus or minus 24-48 hours. But I glanced at a Cunliffe article this weekend and he was saying sometimes we can hang about too long for 'Weather Windows' when it is best just to go.

I think you need to trust your own judgement - you know best your experience, equipment and confidence. The advice you get on here will be good, usually based on experience but the bottom line will always be your own decision..... (not wishing to sound too patronising)

 

[MoodySabre]

I use Windguru for caostal forecasts and http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/mari...&CEL=C&SI=mph&MN=gfs&MODELLTYP=uv10&WIND=g197 if heading abroad. Both seem to have been reasonably accurate.

 

[adamstjohn]

Everyone on here has their favourite, I use windfinder, net weather and zygrib for gribs. Generally I find the forecasts fairly accurate, but the timing often out by probably plus or minus 24-48 hours. But I glanced at a Cunliffe article this weekend and he was saying sometimes we can hang about too long for 'Weather Windows' when it is best just to go.

I think you need to trust your own judgement - you know best your experience, equipment and confidence. The advice you get on here will be good, usually based on experience but the bottom line will always be your own decision..... (not wishing to sound too patronising)

No, totally agree, experience and confidence are the most important factors in all of this,
I shall keep an eye on the next day or 2 and see what the gods provide, flat seas, sun and a broad reach would be nice if totally optimistic and totally unobtainable- I did get these conditions in 1 of my half dozen crossings, it was lovely, I should just change my course to suit. cheers adam

 

[adamstjohn]

I use Windguru for caostal forecasts and http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/mari...&CEL=C&SI=mph&MN=gfs&MODELLTYP=uv10&WIND=g197 if heading abroad. Both seem to have been reasonably accurate.

Good stuff thanks, will take a look.

 

[Colvic Watson]

I can tell you the wind strength and direction for the first two weeks of July if you like? The first week in July when I'm at work on the farm it's a solid NE F4 moving to SE F4/5. Then the next week when we sail to Dorset every year it turns W/SW F6 and I break my shoulder.

Every year.

 

[adamstjohn]

I can tell you the wind strength and direction for the first two weeks of July if you like? The first week in July when I'm at work on the farm it's a solid NE F4 moving to SE F4/5. Then the next week when we sail to Dorset every year it turns W/SW F6 and I break my shoulder.

Every year.

Ouch, I don't like the bone breaking, the farming bit sounds nice, the wind presumably on the nose sounds usual...

 

[Hadenough]

I can tell you the wind strength and direction for the first two weeks of July if you like? The first week in July when I'm at work on the farm it's a solid NE F4 moving to SE F4/5. Then the next week when we sail to Dorset every year it turns W/SW F6 and I break my shoulder.

Every year.

You're planning to do it again?

 

[Colvic Watson]

Yep, it wouldn't be a holiday without a trip to A&E

 

[sailorman]

Yep, it wouldn't be a holiday without a trip to A&E

Be very careful in Guernsey :encouragement:

 

[Daydream believer]

https://www.windy.com

You can plonk a mark at any point at sea to get a prediction of wind strength at any time within the forecast period. better than just land based forecasts

 

[Boz]

https://www.windy.com

You can plonk a mark at any point at sea to get a prediction of wind strength at any time within the forecast period. better than just land based forecasts

I quite like Windy - it's been really enhanced recently, but as Frank Singleton says (He's probably listening) they are all mostly based on the GFS data model and then interpreted by the site weather guys.....There is a tendency, when looking at many sites, to go with the forecast that suits, when we probably should go with the worst case.....

 

[sailorman]

I quite like Windy - it's been really enhanced recently, but as Frank Singleton says (He's probably listening) they are all mostly based on the GFS data model and then interpreted by the site weather guys.....There is a tendency, when looking at many sites, to go with the forecast that suits, when we probably should go with the worst case.....

A man who has 1 watch knows the time
A man who has 2 watches doesnt

 

[Sheff]

When crossing the North Sea this is a good site http://www.dmi.dk/en/hav/#northsea

Click on vind (wind) and vindretning (wind direction)

The wind speeds are m/s so multiply by two for knots.

In the blue - ok. Green - getting iffy. Anything else - sit under a tree!

Hope this helps,
Paul.

 

[Boz]

A man who has 1 watch knows the time
A man who has 2 watches doesnt

Sounds like a Confucianism SM but I suppose the ancient Chinese wouldn't have had watches, it doesn't really work with Sundials ---- just call me 'Glasshoppa'

Sometimes sticking your head out of the Companionway hatch or holding a wetted finger in the air gives the best results

 

[Boz]

It's interesting that no one is extolling the virtues of the 'Met Office' as a source, despite their massive computing power?

 

[Boz]

Yep, it wouldn't be a holiday without a trip to A&E

Talking of mishaps, when I picked up my present boat, taking her back to Fambridge from RHYC, we stopped at Bradwell for the night, and coming out of the bar, I fell over a bench and dislocated a finger having stuck it through the decking.

I spent two hours waiting for an ambulance and then 9 hours in Chelmsford A & E on a Saturday night :ambivalence: this was after a £35 Taxi ride 'cos the ambulance (an estate car) wouldn't take passengers and 'her indoors' wouldn't let me go on my own...... got back to Bradwell at 8am on the Sunday after another £35 taxi ride....

Should have taken more water with it I suppose