Bristol to Cardiff - Inshore Forecast

steveej

steveej

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Hi all,

Ive been in Bristol the last few weeks but would like to take the boat back to Cardiff tomorrow early morning.

Forecast looks like westerly force 3 and of course I will be on the ebb so wind against tide.

Im puzzled though that the inshore forecast from the met office shows a strong wind warning and rough sea state. How accurate is this? lands end to st davids head covers a big area.

Have I got anything to worry about? It is only a 22ft boat so it will get thrown about in rough weather.

Once ive locked out of Bristol there will be no going back.

What would an experienced local do?
 
This experienced local wold use the TV forecasts. The inshore waters forecast covers a large area as you point out and the warnings of strong winds are the strongest wind at any location in the forecast area. Likely that is St Davids head since its almost out in the Atlantic. The land based forecasts are a bit nearer the mark ince the trip you plan is never out of sight of land.

Look at the synoptic charts. They show a 6 to 8 mb gradient across the length of the UK and that translates as more than an F3. Currently at Flatholm its 20 gusting 28 so a steady F5 a bit south or west. Not impossible in a 22 footer but it rather depends on which 22 footer and your skill. Got a pal who traversed the channel both ways in an F6 in a wayfarer. Daft old bu66er but it can be done safely.
 
I find the Windfinder Superforecast is pretty good. During the ebb tides (am and pm) that is suggesting winds of 12 to 18 knots (F4 or 5) with gusts of 17 to 22 (firmly in F5 territory). Your apparent will be 1 beaufort above that, so broadly it's going to feel like F5 or F6. As well as the wind, that's going to make it pretty bouncy in the channel. You can avoid the worst of the waves by picking which bit of water you use, but it's hard to see where you should be when your eyeline is only a couple of metres above the water.

Bottom line: I'm not going out this weekend.
 
11 to 16kn mean wind speed is F4 and gusts up to 17/22 kn are to be expected. F5 is 17 to 21 mean wind speed with gusts above 21kn. So if the inshore waters says F3 then thats 7kn to 10kn mean wind speed with gusts up to maybe 15kn.
 
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I use met office 5 day forecasts .
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcnhfxu49#?fcTime=1430438400

As you say the Inshore water forecasts are worse than useless due to the huge area covered.
The roughest part of your passage if the wind is fresh will be the area between Clevedon and the English and Welsh Buoy by the time you get there the tide will be running strongly against the wind.

A well found 22 foot yacht will be fine. just slow the boat down for a gentler ride through the rough bit . The tide will push you out into the calmer waters quickly enough.
 
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I assume you went for it, steveej. The weather on Sunday was much nicer that the forecasts I saw a day or two before, and I was envious of everyone out there. I saw a couple of boats about 22 feet so I assume one was you. White hull with red stripe? Or blue hull?
 
I went yesterday (blue hull). Didn't see many boats but I was locked in Cardiif by 10:15am

I had to get the first lock out of Bristol at 0530AM because of the stop gates.

Still half asleep in the lock I tied the lines back on the cleats! then heard a cracking sound! couldn't get the oxo off the stern cleat so grabbed a knife and then splash. Managed to release the bow line from the cleat but its partially pulled the fair lead out of the deck.

Spent the next 30 mins up the river with the autopilot on, frantically hopping down below to check bilge and lockers to make sure I hadn't holed the boat.

I had got too used to locking in and out of Cardiff with the pontoons either side and didn't think.

Luckily seems like the fair lead was the only thing damaged.
 
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