Fergus
Well-Known Member
Going to Weymouth on sat regardless - probably last trip of the year (sigh)
BBC TV weather forecasts - just ignore them !!
- Thread starter BlueSkyNick
- Start date
BlueSkyNick
Well-Known Member
Enjoy your crabs. I have to be in Lym on Sunday morning to help run the Solent Circuit racing series.
BlueSkyNick
Well-Known Member
I repeat, I am not having a go at the BBC. I am saying that their forecasts are too generic, by necessity, to make decisions about sailing or not.
BurnitBlue
Well-Known Member
I may regret writing this but the problem is not the weather forecasts but the totally unsuitable yachts that are built today. I am not having a go at AWB's in particular. Or maybe I am.
My point is that if a boat has a pedigree like the Nicholson 32 or 35, or even those wooden ones owned by Hiscock, Pigeon, Allcard, etc etc who circumnavigated safely in all weathers without weather forecasts then the blame really lies with the choice of boat.
Take inspiration from some blogs on the web. Some folk are doing it that way as we speak.
Comfort and the expectation of never feeling dis-comfort is a modern marketing ploy to sell floating caravans.
Please don't be upset if you own an unsuitable boat. Have a realistic look at it and either stay in the marina or sell it and buy one you are comfortable with sailing in ALL weathers. But please don't blame the weather forecasts. I will stop there before I get accused of trolling. It's just my opinion.
My point is that if a boat has a pedigree like the Nicholson 32 or 35, or even those wooden ones owned by Hiscock, Pigeon, Allcard, etc etc who circumnavigated safely in all weathers without weather forecasts then the blame really lies with the choice of boat.
Take inspiration from some blogs on the web. Some folk are doing it that way as we speak.
Comfort and the expectation of never feeling dis-comfort is a modern marketing ploy to sell floating caravans.
Please don't be upset if you own an unsuitable boat. Have a realistic look at it and either stay in the marina or sell it and buy one you are comfortable with sailing in ALL weathers. But please don't blame the weather forecasts. I will stop there before I get accused of trolling. It's just my opinion.
Zagato
Well-Known Member
Well as a gardener I gave up looking at BBC and Met office forecasts ages ago. I think the BBC used the Met but changed their source of info but I'm not 100% sure.
They do it get it wildly wrong but it's not easy predicting the weather even for 6 hours time especially for micro climates which is what people really need.
They do it get it wildly wrong but it's not easy predicting the weather even for 6 hours time especially for micro climates which is what people really need.
Teetime
Active Member
I have been saying this for years but am now sitting at home when I could be halfway to Weymouth this morning. I should have stuck to my plan based on my forecast models of choice - windguru, predictwind and ugrib.
Cut a huge long story short, SWMBO and I have been planning 4 days (Wed to Sat) aboard, going somewhere, relaxing, etc Really fancied Alderney or Chichester in the right conditions, but anywhere away from the Solent would be good.
Wednesday was aborted because neither of us wanted to spend Thursday sitting in a boat in the peeing rain, we had enough of that back in June, so the dog didnt get taken to kennels. Then Wednesday afternoon, I made a plan for Thursday morning for me to catch the start of the ebb, in light rain which was going to clear and I could tolerate. SWMBO was to put the dog in kennels then take the train to meet me in either Poole or Weymouth.
Last thing before I went to bed last night, the lady on the television said its going to rain pretty hard for most of the day so I cried off and opted for a lie-in.
Now today, it is SE4 (ideal for a broad reach, single handed) a bit grey but not raining at all so I should have gone and had a good sail ...... ARRRGGGHH!
I keep telling people that the forecast on the TV is very generic aimed the vast majority of the population, and who don't care about the combination of rain, wind and tide.
Having ignored my own advice, a whole trip has gone by the board - looks a night in Cowes again
The worst forcast of all was the inshore waters forecast for the Solent Area last Friday October 5th. The forecast was 6-8 with gale warnings all along the South Coast. Having sat in Cowes most of the day in very benign conditions we upped sticks and sailed in the afternoon to Lymington in pleasant force 4. Saturday was another scary forecast which again never transpired. Thinking they must be right this time we stayed put in Lymington and missed another good day for sailing. Wind Guru and passage sailing got it right both days but we chose to believe the Inshore Forcast which was a shame. How did they get it so wrong ?
BlueSkyNick
Well-Known Member
You are welcome to your opinion, as long as you accept that somebody else is free to tell you it's load of bollokcs.
The volume of water falling out of the sky, and ones tolerance to its inconvenience and discomfort, are exactly the same regardless of the boat one is on...... unless of course it is a motor sailor with a pilot house, but none of the boats you mention can be considered as such.
onesea
Well-Known Member
+1 Also for me the boats listed in and out of modern marinas in all weather conditions mentioned will not be a nice experience. Fine if you have swinging mooring, an unknown marina and traditional boat in a bit of a breeze hmm I would rather have a modern boat for that bit...
franksingleton
Well-Known Member
Going back to the original post, the run-up to this weekend was interesting. The forecasters on BBC TV and radio were very uncertain about rain across the south of the UK on Sunday – today as I write this. Wisely, they said all along that it was uncertain – presumably because the ensemble runs made that quite clear.
That facility of being uncertain is a luxury not available to those writing the outlook in the inshore waters forecast nor to any of us using any model. That will be so whether you are using GFS output or any of the more detailed models run by the various firms that do so.
That facility of being uncertain is a luxury not available to those writing the outlook in the inshore waters forecast nor to any of us using any model. That will be so whether you are using GFS output or any of the more detailed models run by the various firms that do so.
Grunter
Well-Known Member
I have head it said that windfarms are playing havoc with the forecasts?
The logic was that systems are not getting Blown the same as they were when all the previous data was collected.
I know thats a very simplified version and that the power taken from the system is probably relatively small (or is it given their locations?), but could they in effect delay the arrival / departure of a certain system?
The logic was that systems are not getting Blown the same as they were when all the previous data was collected.
I know thats a very simplified version and that the power taken from the system is probably relatively small (or is it given their locations?), but could they in effect delay the arrival / departure of a certain system?
franksingleton
Well-Known Member
Even though small weather disturbances can grow into major storms, I would have thought the suggestion most unlikely. Bear in mind that a single thunderstorm requires an energy input of around one H-Bomb’s worth and that a hurricane requires about one H-bomb’s worth every 8 minutes and you get some idea of the power of the atmosphere. I have not got a figure for a normal extra-tropical depression but it must be some enormous amount of energy. By comparison, the amount of energy removed by wind farms must be pretty trivial.
However, I do have to wonder what the local effect might be downwind of a wind farm.
Grunter
Well-Known Member
I am with you on the larger more energetic systems, I know we do tend to have micro climates here in Wales too. It is the smaller systems that when forcast seem to be late and take longer than anticipated to clear.
That may be down to poor forcasting, but I do wonder, given that these inland farms are placed where that energy would be at a maximum, just what the accumulative effect would be?
That may be down to poor forcasting, but I do wonder, given that these inland farms are placed where that energy would be at a maximum, just what the accumulative effect would be?
simonjames
Active Member
+1
I completely agree, after reading these forums for some years, it strikes me that certain posts are turned into a free for all slagging off of mass production boats/traditional designs etc.
My view is that if everybody liked the same things, life would be pretty boring, I own an AWB and am more than happy with it. However my choice of boat may be the exact opposite of somebody elses, thats not to say I'm right and their wrong.
However, when someone suggests that the topic is not about weather forecasting, more about the fact that a large number of boat owners bought the wrong boat, and should just be happy to stay in the marina when the weather forecast is poor is absolutely ridiculous.
I would like to know what qualifies someone to come out with such a statement.
Many AWB's will have made passages in bad weather and got there perfectly safely. Getting caught in bad weather is one thing, however trying to plan a passage with the forecasts available is another. Its about enjoyment and not getting piss wet through, I didn't realise it rained less on a traditional design than it does on a AWB.
To summarise the post I completely disagree with your summarisation and completely agree with the above post.
robp
Well-Known Member
Yes - what happened to the "we do this for enjoyment" bit? Nothing to prove anymore. I'm not sure I'd want to sit in a pilot house with windscreen wipers going either. Warralotofnonsense!
In this "summer" of let downs, there have been too many "oh bugger I could have gone's". Sympathies.
But it did pee down on Thursday after all?
fireball
Well-Known Member
Oh I dunno. I think most of us have got the wrong boat for this last season!
Something with at least 2 wheels would've been far better to allow us to chase the good weather!!
Something with at least 2 wheels would've been far better to allow us to chase the good weather!!
oldharry
Well-Known Member
Its the time of year. You know - THAT time of year...
"I can assure you there will not be a hurricane"
Anyway they just got themselves a new super-computer. rumour is they got it cheap from RBS as part of the Govt bail out scheme. I will stick to Simon Keeling - thanks Simon!
"I can assure you there will not be a hurricane"
Anyway they just got themselves a new super-computer. rumour is they got it cheap from RBS as part of the Govt bail out scheme. I will stick to Simon Keeling - thanks Simon!
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