simonjk
Well-known member
Evening all,
Last Bank Holiday before Christmas and thought you might appreciate a bit of a heads up on the weather over the weekend. I do send out a forecast by email every Thursday (as well as other weather thoughts through the week), see the website to sign up for that.
Anyhooo, weekend is on it's way, so what have we got?
For Saturday the models look pretty consistent with the idea of low pressure close to southern iceland, a weak ridge over the UK, but then a trough moving into the southwest. Not sure how vigorous that feature in the southwest will be yet, although I notice on the Met Office 96hr fax chart they have shown it as a full depression. Not sure this will be the case, but none the less it could bring heavy rain to the western Channel and SW Britain on Saturday afternoon, Ireland on saturday morning.
Winds mainly from SW F3-F4 on saturday but increasing F6 perhaps low end F7 late on Saturday in NW Scotland.
Sunday starts to see disagreement on where and how deep to make the low between Scotland and Iceland. UK Met doesn't look too bad, although I prefer the GFS Ensemble which is showing it around 990 millibars, rather than UK Met 980mb.
Therefore I'd gop blustery showers in the north, with rain in western Scotland. May see SW F& perhaps even F8 in far NW Scotland (although I think this could be a force too high)./ Lighter to the south, mainly W F4-5, mainly F4 in English Channel.
On Monday American GFS model tries to bring a vigorous depression and torugh into the North Sea. I don't think this is likely to happen, but it is worth watching. Other models (including UK Met, GFS Ensemble and JMA (Japanese)) want to keep the depression to the north of the UK with a brisk SW flow.
We have to be thinking of rain through southern Ireland, northern England, blustery showers to north and mainly fair although cloudier to south. Fog patches in southern Ireland and western Channel.
Winds SW G=F6 poss F7, but we need to watych this as they could be as low as F4 in the eastern Channel and SE England.
Hope that has been useful. We are open al weekend if you need us....
Cheers for now,
Simon.
<hr width=100% size=1>Simon Keeling
Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.weatherweb.net
Last Bank Holiday before Christmas and thought you might appreciate a bit of a heads up on the weather over the weekend. I do send out a forecast by email every Thursday (as well as other weather thoughts through the week), see the website to sign up for that.
Anyhooo, weekend is on it's way, so what have we got?
For Saturday the models look pretty consistent with the idea of low pressure close to southern iceland, a weak ridge over the UK, but then a trough moving into the southwest. Not sure how vigorous that feature in the southwest will be yet, although I notice on the Met Office 96hr fax chart they have shown it as a full depression. Not sure this will be the case, but none the less it could bring heavy rain to the western Channel and SW Britain on Saturday afternoon, Ireland on saturday morning.
Winds mainly from SW F3-F4 on saturday but increasing F6 perhaps low end F7 late on Saturday in NW Scotland.
Sunday starts to see disagreement on where and how deep to make the low between Scotland and Iceland. UK Met doesn't look too bad, although I prefer the GFS Ensemble which is showing it around 990 millibars, rather than UK Met 980mb.
Therefore I'd gop blustery showers in the north, with rain in western Scotland. May see SW F& perhaps even F8 in far NW Scotland (although I think this could be a force too high)./ Lighter to the south, mainly W F4-5, mainly F4 in English Channel.
On Monday American GFS model tries to bring a vigorous depression and torugh into the North Sea. I don't think this is likely to happen, but it is worth watching. Other models (including UK Met, GFS Ensemble and JMA (Japanese)) want to keep the depression to the north of the UK with a brisk SW flow.
We have to be thinking of rain through southern Ireland, northern England, blustery showers to north and mainly fair although cloudier to south. Fog patches in southern Ireland and western Channel.
Winds SW G=F6 poss F7, but we need to watych this as they could be as low as F4 in the eastern Channel and SE England.
Hope that has been useful. We are open al weekend if you need us....
Cheers for now,
Simon.
<hr width=100% size=1>Simon Keeling
Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.weatherweb.net
