5 day forecast for Solent ?

[rogerroger]

The Portsmouth Evening News web site used to provide a really useful 5 day forecast for the Solent - they've now replaced it with one that doesn't include wind, hmm great.

Can anyone recommend a good online 5 day sailing forecast for this area please ?



Roger Holden
www.first-magnitude.co.uk

 

[Guest]

Try weatherwebsites.co.uk - tons of stuff there but probably the best for you is the Very Useful Weather Page.

 

[zefender]

bbc.co.uk/weather does 5 day for UK cities and includes wind data. You can also select say, Portsmouth as your 'home' for next time you log in.

Agree about the change to the News site. I think the web cam has gone too hasn't it? It never used to be a very reliable site - get the feeling they've given up.

 

[rogerroger]

Thanks. I think the wind indication is a fairly new addition to the BBC weather - let's see if it's accurate.

I'm surprised the forecast for Sunday is 5 knots - looks like quite a windy depression (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.html) is on it's way, maybe it's moving slowly.

Roger Holden
www.first-magnitude.co.uk

 

[david_e]

Rog, don't rely on the beeb, as said before, they are average at average forecasting. You need something more specific, perhaps the met office or one of the specialist sites and ultimately Plan B. Plan B is what you do when the forecasts are wrong and Plan A fails, have resorted to the Plan B more times than I can remember 'cause the beeb is wrong.

This is not knocking the beeb, just accepting their limitations and also recognising the desire of modern day weather forecasters to be celebrities as oppose to professionals.

If I had the time or inclination I would monitor to prove it but no point really.

 

[Guest]

The Met Office has just printed the 2002 version of it's Marine Weather Services: It arrived today hot off the press. No matter how you want your information (5-Day etc) it is a very useful FREE publication - 36pages. Tel: 0845 300 0300 for your copy.

 

[Twister_Ken]

If the meat orifice can't get a 24h forecast right, how much would you trust a 5d one?

 

[zefender]

Take a look at :http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/verification/londonspeed.html

...and other pages thereabouts. This is the met office's verification of its own forecasts vs actual. Quite a good read. Not sure how reassuring it is though...

 

[DoctorD]

No way 5 knots..

on Sunday. I am expecting a lot more.

Agree with you.

Graham

 

[Guest]

I think the Portsmouth Evening News website is being moved to www.ppp.co.uk the forecast may appear there soon!

 

[Chris_Stannard]

Re: Forecasting ?

I think what every one is forgetting is that the only good forecast is the ont that turns out to be right.

When I did my Met Course we were told that if you got the weather forecast nearly right about 60% of the time you were batting above average. My guess would be that that has not improved much inspite of all the weather gismos and computers. If you read the 'Fatal Storm', Story of Sidney - Hobart race of '98, they were using three computer weather models, two said the weather would not be too bad and the third said it would be dreadful. On the basis of two out of three the forecasters went with the not too bad forecast, with horrendous results.

MacMillan Reeds do a weekend forecast which is usually not to bad. It came out today and forecasts strong Southerlies for Sunday.

My own experience says always allow for the the Wind to be two strengths higher than forecast and do not believe anything beyond 24 hours unless there is a well established high.

Chris Stannard

 

[rogerroger]

Re: Forecasting ?

is this MacMillan Reeds forecast online ?

Roger Holden
www.first-magnitude.co.uk

 

[rogerroger]

Re: No way 5 knots..or MPH

Just checked again and it's MPH rather than knots ! So even less !

Roger Holden
www.first-magnitude.co.uk

 

[l'escargot]

Try this one:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/windframe?3&CONT=ukuk&WIND=g254&LANG=en

regards

 

[andyball]

agree about the portsmouth news forecast....used to be good, but they seem in no hurry to bring it back,despite many adverse comments....and glib promises from them.

http://www.onlineweather.com/v4/uk/sailing/SO26.html
is OK usually,if rather short.

Maybe we'll all keep pestering the news, but if their "improved" site is anything to go by, I won't hold my breath.

 

[Guest]

The 120 hour met office chart is at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

If you look on Frank Singleton's site

http://www.franksingleton.clara.net/essential_sites.html

he has links to all the raw data thats available

Steve

 

[Guest]

on a prolonged cruise from immingham to bristol , i had a month of looking at the next days forecast and comparing it with what happened in practice. the conclusion was that it was more accurate simply to assume that the next days weather would be the same as todays! the forecasts were usually wrong in the timing of systems by up to 24 hrs, and in wind strengths by up to a factor of F2

cannot see the practical use of a 5 day forecast when weather is as unstable as it is round the uk, and the met office are as poor at forecasting as they are.

funny thing is, however, that despite all the above, i dont feel i can leave port without a weather forecast! bit like a rabbits foot - no rational reason to have one, but you still feel safer.

 

[rogerroger]

Re: No way 5 knots..

well maybe they're right - check Sunday's chart now - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.html

Looks like the low is being pushed north and moving very slowly...

Roger Holden
www.first-magnitude.co.uk

 

[david_e]

Monitoring

See what I mean...Friday night the beeb said that it would be pishing it down in Hudds today...sunshine and light clouds. Happen they revised their forecast on Saturday, but then that makes Friday's a guesscast, not what we pay for methinks.

 

[david_e]

Re: Monitoring

..and it remained dry, getting sunnier and warmer all the time!! Both the beeb website and tv forecasted rain all day for today on Friday.