alahol2
Well-Known Member
Windfinder, particularly superforecast.
Damn, no Android versionxyGrib is a better bet today as its being updated, zyGrib stopped in 2016
Personally, I do not use ensembles. If you look ar Windy,com, you can see two global models and two limited area model forecasts out to 5 days. As far as I can see, differences are usually within the noise level of the weather. Even the very high resolution Meteo France AROME short period forecast looks little different from the global models. Using GRIBs from whichever model I use, I assume, on a 60-100 mile passage, that, at times, I will get winds up to one Beaufort higher and lower than predicted. I am never really surprised if I get short periods of 2 forces higher. Ensembles are run on coarser grids than the deterministic forecast. They are not intended to give alternative forecasts. They are run on a coarser grid and indicate how dependent the forecasts are on the initial data analysis.With the cheap annual subscription you get access to the Expert charts which gives you GFS , ECMWF and a bunch of others with good visibility of the grid sizes etc.
It also gives the "Ensemble" charts, which can give you a feel for the likely accuracy, if you know what you're looking at (I am not sure I do).
PW say that they use a 50km grid. That means that their initial analyses cannot resolve jet streams or surface patterns as well as a 10 or 12 km grid. Their forecast my well be useful enough bearing in mind the inherent variability of weather. Their forecasts cannot be better than, asymmetrical GFSM ICON, ECMWF.Windy App allows you to choose the model you like best. Predictwind is fancy and do their own magic with the models.
They are forecasts and my experience has been varied so I don't bother with the smaller grid models anymore. Look at the big GFS and the big ECMwhaterver it's called and choose the one you like least. This way your disappointment level never gets too low![]()
XCWeather is just one presentation of the US GFS. Using PocketGrib on a Tablet, you will the same information in a more useful form - in my opinion. By placing the centre of the display over any location, you can get a display of forecasts at that point at 3 hourly intervals. On a laptop, XYGrib will give the same info again. By right-click can get a time sequence at any point you select. These are not as quick to use as XCW but more useful and the data are saved automatically. Worthwhile a little experimentation at home.I have just tried Xc weather & if I am correct it is a bit like wind guru ( but easier & better presented) in that it only shows a forecast for a particular place
Is that correct or am I using it incorrectly?
If I want to cross an area of sea there may be a weather stream in the middle that does not show on the towns each side so the info would be wrong. An example would be NE of the Dover strait, where a forecast for Ramsgate & Ostend would not record a higher wind strength in the area between
So something like Windy, which shows the wind patterns at sea is far more useful.
Am I correct in that assumption?
Certainly one of the easiest presentations of the GFS. Better than XCWeather. Of course, no better as a forecast than any other, it is a matter of personal likes and dislikes which you use.Passage weather is good for crossing the channel.