Which weather forecast do you believe?

[firstmatewendy]

Having just read the various threads around the subject of weather forecasting, my comment is that, for the most part, all the (professional) forecasts say something different and it is very hard to know who to believe!
HWMBO is at this very minute setting off across the North Sea from Ipswich to Vlissingen after what seems like days and days of endless forecast watching and shall we/shan't we debates. Any opinions on which sites tend to be the most accurate?? /forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif

 

[savageseadog]

My own, within reason. I look at the seven day pressure charts and get a general idea of what's going to be about. The more isobars and lows (and highs) the more unstable it's going to be, the more care I'll take over the decisions.

 

[Guest]

There is no one model that is the best. The key is to check multiple models and see how they differ. If they are all similar then well and good, but mainly they show you what could happen.

If it was me I would have gone tonight also. I would head south of Vlissingen as the wind will head you tomorrow afternoon. I would not dawdle as the rain front is coming tomorrow evening.

PS. Weather Online, met office and FNMOC (US navy)

 

[Sinbad2222]

Pressure chart is most helpful. Is there an online chart that one can access??

 

[Guest]

Anything from:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_pressure.html

to:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...;dtg=2007052900

or:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...;dtg=2007052912

But if you want more:
http://www.greatweather.co.uk/

 

[AlJones]

Hi Wendy Al here!

I've been watching it like a hawk, for obvious reasons.

Bouy 62147, out in the North sea is showing 14mph at the moment.

For tomorrow it is forecast as a F5/6 S/SW at around 1000hrs.

Have a nose at http://www.xcweather.co.uk/
Hover your mouse over where you would like the info for, if you click on it it will show the forecast. This is one that I use quiet alot.

Another one I use is http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html

Looking forward to Kims Blog update on his return.

Drop me a PM if you wish as Pete is going to call me as soon as he arrives.

Regards

Al.

 

[Sinbad2222]

Thanks Neil and Al.
The Wetterzentrale one I find easiest to view.

 

[jackho]

www.magicseaweed.com every time , every trip. St Kilda and back perfect!! /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

 

[jb2006]

Theyr.net is good for a euro a week.

I also use Wetterzentrale - v good but watch the dates on the charts from about 3 days out and use the "+hours" instead

 

[bluedragon]

I must say I'm a fan of Windguru. The MM5 model forecast is very good at a local level. It is subscription based, but very reasonable for what you get. Most of the free forecasts out there are based on the GFS model which has the overall picture, but almost always under-estimates wind speed in my part of the world.

 

[firstmatewendy]

Thanks everyone for the suggestions, which confirm my suspicions that there are as many different forecasts as there are sites - and more besides if you choose to interpret the synoptics yourself! And no doubt the skipper will come home with a totally different account of the weather anyway.

I like the xcweather site as there is a weather station quite close to here and it always confirms what is happening outside my window - which is more than can be said for a lot of them! However, it could do with a few more buoys in the southern North Sea in my totally unbaised opinion!

 

[FullCircle]

The best forecast I heard last weekend was shouted from the stern of Guapa as we passed on the way out of Ostend heading for Ramsgate-
'VARIABLE 2-4'
much better than all the other rubbish I heard and read. So we went with that.

 

[LadyInBed]

I have also found that http://www.windguru.cz/ gives an accurate, easy to read presentation for a specific area.
Not so good for an overview, for that I like Weather Online and click on the Wind / Surface Pressure / Wind Forecast tabs on the Right.

 

[Robin2]

I've just looked at as many of these links as I could and compared them with WWW.GRIB.US. They all seem to be the same for next Sunday. The grib.us system is very easy to use, and can give you data for anywhere in the world.

I got the reference to grib.us from another recent thread on one of these forums.

 

[clouty]

thanks for all those lovely links people. Have expanded my weather folder most usefully xxx

 

[Guest]

Robin2: All you have proved is that all the sites, you use, are from a common source model.

Just compare Sun 00 of GFS and GOGAPS models. There are significant differences.

Also these weather charts & GRIBS take little account for local terrain differences. We saw a wonderful GRIBS file in the red sea that had high winds going through Mt. Sinai (7500 ft) . Although windy, we suspected that the mountain would not blow away and allow the surface wind through.

I know its an extreme example but if they are not modelling that feature there is little chance they will consider the others. Another good example is Gib. The straits do not conform to the weather charts. However there are local "rules" that can be used to translate the global pressures in to actual wind directions. Same occurs in three places on the Mexican and Central American coast.

As for Emjaytoo thankfully the terrain does not affect that part of the world but a little funnelling in the channel does occur.

For all those in the Channel on Monday look at this sequence and you will see WHY! The low is clearly seen heading across the Channel.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/neatl/loop-wv.html

 

[simonjk]

Peeps,

The weekend forecasts were virtually spot on for all areas.

Havig read the various posts, the problem seems to be one of hearing a forecast "Gales this weekend" and then applying it to all areas. My PhD research is picking up on this and I cal it "headline flashbulbing". Basicaly this means that we hear a forecast and immediately apply it to the area we are interested in.

Now, I know a lot of you might say, "I don't do that", but just be aware of it when you are using and looking at forecasts.

Simon

 

[Guest]

Brilliant Simon. The physiology of hearing what you want to hear.

The world would be dull if we actually listened to others. We would be like a heard of young cows. 2 ears and 1 mouth and 1/3 utilization.

It is the reason I will not do general forecasts for yachties unless I can hear their feedback or I see something significant. Also, we found out on our Atlantic crossing one of the boats was deliberately giving false positions because he did not want Herb to stop talking with him. He had gone a different way to the way Herb said. It meant that our friends sailed straight into SW's as they were following him!!

 

[simonjk]

Absolutely, shows there is no eplacement for doing the forecasts yourself. yes, use GRIB and computer generated stuff as guidance, but then lean heavily on the shipping forecast and your own predictions.

 

[firstmatewendy]

All of which brings me back to my original thoughts that it is all a bit of a black art!