Weekend Winds - Post Match Analysis!

[simonjk]

With the forecast winds in the Channel not being as strong as predicted last weekend, thought I would do a VERY quick post event analysis of what happend.

It is in a Word document and is at http://www.weatherweb.net/WxReview2425082003.doc

Like to know if you find this useful.

Thanks,
Simon

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[simonjk]

Just a warning that this is a big file at 6MB and so it will be slow to download if you are on dialup.

Simon



<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
www.atlanticweather.co.uk

 

[Evadne]

Thanks for the feedback, although it took a good couple of minutes to download all six megabytes. pdf might be better next time.
I have to say I was following the Theyr forecast (with some references to UKMO and Weatheronline to back it up). This led me to believe by Friday that there'd be no wind on Saturday (NW -> NE F2 ), E F2 increasing F3 on Sunday and E F4 on Monday. In the event on Sunday I experienced E2 rising quickly to E -ESE F3-F4 before falling back to F3 with a S F3-4 (sea breeze) in Chichester harbour after 3pm. The only forecast F5 I heard was the shipping forecast on Sunday morning. On that basis I'd say you were no worse than the Met Office, but not as good as Theyr.

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[tony_brighton]

Seems very slow to download - I gave up as nothing seemed to be happening.

We went down to St Vaast Friday night - winds were Westerley around 18 kts gusting 24kts on the English side and faded to nothing by the time we got to St Vaast. Sunday night we had F5-6 NE-E - it dropped a bit but we had NE F3-4 gusting F5 all the way over Monday - the slight bit of difference (E vs NE) makes a huge difference to us sailors. What were you predicting?


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[AndrewB]

No need for apologies!

In the Dover Straight the weather ran precisely to the Met Office forecasts that I heard. Variable F3 on Saturday translated as a mainly westerly F2/3. Sunday and Monday had a forecast and actual NE F4/5 which made for some first-class, lively sailing.

No need for apologies.


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[simonjk]

Re: No need for apologies!

Thanks for the report on the actual conditions.

All indications here were that the speeds were less than forecast, but from the reports I have had in the past few minutes forecasts weren't that far off anyway.

I was going to use this as an example in our day and weekend "Weather at Sea" course, but perhaps it's not such a good case after all!

Thanks all,
Simon

Simon Keeling
Managing Director

<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
www.atlanticweather.co.uk

 

[kimhollamby]

Netherlands/Belgium/UK experience

Saturday up on the Westerschelde/Belgian coast we had light winds predominantly out of the west; looking at the Met Office synoptics we expected the wind to go north later (as did the Belgian forecasters) but it didn't happen, at least before 1800 when we saw the last boats in the fleet we were manging into Nieuwpoort.

The following day (Sunday) we expected E or NE 3-5; most French and UK inshore forcasts were there or thereabouts; we got less than that, temporarily, by starting at 0500 (to try and avoid a wind againt tide NE across the Dover Strait). Up until the tide turn at 0900-1000 we had about a F3 out of the north-east and it started building steadily from there through into the afternoon. The displacement boats in our fleet were happy to see home as they had to cross wind against tide and the sea was beginning to get a little bit more lively. Early birds among the faster motorboats (yes, sorry, power on a sail forum) made usefully quick crossings in favourable conditions.

Once the fleet were parked and we had sat out a tide turn we made a late afternoon dash in a planing motorboat from Ramsgate to Port Solent and had a steady F5 NE in the Dover Strait (later more E along the South Coast) right into the evening with it dropping off a little towards dusk. Some impressive waves off Beachy Head that evening; was even more impressed by a couple of yachts we saw trying to punch their way eastwards...quite a useful amount of hull and keel showing as they show-jumped past us.

Had hoped for slight easing of the winds for Monday down at the Dover/Ramsgate end of things judging by Met Office synoptic issued Sunday but it seemed to carry on blowing fairly consistently according to reports from boats still there (and looking at the later synoptic one could see why).

Weather seemed pretty hard to second-guess at the back end of last week, with the only relatively easy day being Friday which always seemed to be going to be breezy, so not really surprising to see some variation in forecasts over the weekend.

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[janie]

But wonderful visibility

Leaving Fecamp on Sunday at 1730, we had all of F6 for at least 5 hours. Can't remember exactly when we changed up from the No 4, but probably after the shipping lane. But what fantastic visibility.

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[Twister_Ken]

Interesting diversity

Re your Fecamp trip. I was up the Hamble on Sunday doing a bit of maintenance and doubt that there was much above a F3 ENE on the river, maybe a F4 over more open water. Because I had some cameras in the car from a job I'd been doing on Saurday, I thought I would stop off on Sunday evening at Butser Hill to see if there were any good landscape shots to be had towards sunset. No joy, it was really quite hazy with very low levels of contrast.

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