Weekend Weather Forecast


Well-known member
6 Mar 2003
Hello again,

A forecasting quandary this weekend...just how far north will that rain come? I have to be honest, I'm not sure, but experience has shown that models tend to overdo it a touch and so I think southern Ireland, south Wales and southern counties of England are most at risk Saturday, with showers for much of England, south of Manchester on Sunday. We'll see eh?

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Have a good weekend,

Simon Keeling
Weather Consultancy Services

Issued: 1030 Thursday 12th May 2005

High pressure is expected to be centred to the northwest of Scotland, with a strong easterly flow through England, Wales and Ireland. An occluded front also affects southern coasts of England.
I'm expecting the cloud and rain to extend as far north as southern Ireland, the Bristol Channel and along southern coasts of England through the day. Winds may be strong in places. For more northern parts of the UK and Ireland the day should be drier with sunny spells, best of these in western Scotland and northwest England.
Winds mainly E 18-25kt (F5-F6) in the south, gusting 30kt (F7) along exposed parts of the southern coasts. Nearer NE 10-12kt (F3-F4) in central and northern Scotland.

On Saturday the low pressure becomes complex across the north of France, with an occluded front troubling southern coasts of England. The risk east to northeast flow persists elsewhere, with the high then drifting further west of Scotland.
The result will be cloud and rain for southern parts of England, probably tending to be confined to an area south of the M4 corridor.
To the north a few showers may break out over the Midlands and East Anglia, whilst over northern England, Scotland and Ireland it should be staying dry with sunny spells. The best of the sunshine again for Scotland.
Winds will be mainly from the NE 15-25kt (f5-F6) in the south, nearer N-NE 12-17kt (F4) over Scotland.

The overall situation doesn't look right to me on Sunday. Low pressure is expected to be west of the Brest Peninsula, and I think that this is probably about right. A brisk northerly flow will be covering the rest of the country, with a weak warm front perhaps brushing the west of Scotland.
For much of southern England and the south of Wales as well as the far south of Ireland there will be cloud and some outbreaks of drizzle or rain. In between good spells of sunshine, although a few showers may break out over the Pennines and southern Scotland on Sunday afternoon.
Winds mainly NE 10-12kt (F3-F4) over the south, light and variable through northern England and southern Scotland, becoming N-NW 12-15kt (F4-F5) in the north later.