Bob
New member
A wake up call for the Atlantic.
Quote:
Good morning!
We are going to shorten this as the info that has been
posted in my past synopses pretty much paints the
picture for the season, with increased activity on its
way, and a good chance at an above average season.
Disturbance 90L continues on a basic westerly course
this morning, moving near 15-20 mph. I expect this
motion to continue for the next 48-72 hours, with a
possible slight tug just north of due west. 90L is
still under the influence of some easterly wind shear.
We should start to see some better development I
believe, once this disturbance gets west of 35W
longitude. This does have the potential to become a
tropical depression in the next 36-48 hours, and I
will be monitoring this closely as it continues across
the Atlantic basin. The majority of the computer
models bring this to hurricane strength within the
next 4-7 days, with 2 of the Global Models showing
slower strengthening. Model guidance has been
basically split on forecast movement, with the
extremes being the GFS (Global Forecast System)
showing a basic straight westward path eventually into
Mexico, and the ECMWF (European Center for Medium
range Weather Forecasting) showing a more WNW to a
short NW jog, then back W to WNW putting the system a
few hundred miles east of the northern Bahamas. Keep
in mind that things can change as far as steering, and
the further out in time the models go, the less
accurate they can be. The models probably won't have
a real good handle on this until this system develops
better. I am however not inclined at this time to buy
the GFS solution of a straight westerly track, but I
do feel it will gain some northerly component over
time. On that note, I feel it is too far south though
to make a classic "recurve" from what I've seen this
morning in the steering currents forecast maps.
End Quote
Full synopsis report HERE
This could develop into something pretty nasty I think.
/forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif
Quote:
Good morning!
We are going to shorten this as the info that has been
posted in my past synopses pretty much paints the
picture for the season, with increased activity on its
way, and a good chance at an above average season.
Disturbance 90L continues on a basic westerly course
this morning, moving near 15-20 mph. I expect this
motion to continue for the next 48-72 hours, with a
possible slight tug just north of due west. 90L is
still under the influence of some easterly wind shear.
We should start to see some better development I
believe, once this disturbance gets west of 35W
longitude. This does have the potential to become a
tropical depression in the next 36-48 hours, and I
will be monitoring this closely as it continues across
the Atlantic basin. The majority of the computer
models bring this to hurricane strength within the
next 4-7 days, with 2 of the Global Models showing
slower strengthening. Model guidance has been
basically split on forecast movement, with the
extremes being the GFS (Global Forecast System)
showing a basic straight westward path eventually into
Mexico, and the ECMWF (European Center for Medium
range Weather Forecasting) showing a more WNW to a
short NW jog, then back W to WNW putting the system a
few hundred miles east of the northern Bahamas. Keep
in mind that things can change as far as steering, and
the further out in time the models go, the less
accurate they can be. The models probably won't have
a real good handle on this until this system develops
better. I am however not inclined at this time to buy
the GFS solution of a straight westerly track, but I
do feel it will gain some northerly component over
time. On that note, I feel it is too far south though
to make a classic "recurve" from what I've seen this
morning in the steering currents forecast maps.
End Quote
Full synopsis report HERE
This could develop into something pretty nasty I think.
/forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif