Weather suitable for channel crossing ?

[[2068]]

I've looked around myself, but am still asking the question:

- Sealine S28
- Deauville to Hayling Island
- Myself plus one experienced yachtie
- Sunday, locking out maybe 1hr before high water (3pm ish)

Yes or No?

My main concern, apart from the late tide, is how quickly the channel swell will die down after the recent blow. Returning at a reasonable time requires maintaining an average speed of 17-18kts or so, which is a comfortable speed in a gentle swell, but becomes too much like bang crash arrrggh in anything more.

Any input from someone more experienced at staring at isobars and channel crossing than I am would be appreciated, as well as links to other sites that show channel forecasts... (already have met office/meteo francais/NOAA buoy data)

dv.

 

[peterb26]

Re: Weather Analysis Required for possible channel crossing.

I'm glad its your call and not mine..........

The synoptic charts for tomorrow lunch time suggest that the wind will be dying away - and then sunday is even better.

But monday has a front passing through according to the BBC.

However the forecast for Wight is not good for tomorrow - but Portland forecast at 5.35pm today is "becoming V3 or 4 later".

Equally if you look at the Sunday forecast for the coast around Hayling its very pleasant "Southwest 3 or 4 veering north 2 or 3, then backing south later".

If you are thinking about catching a ferry across the channel and bringing it back then I'd probably say "hang on and wait for a better spell".

If you are there and sat waiting whilst enjoying the local areas - then you may well be fine on Sunday - but you probably wont know for sure until Sunday morning.

 

[[2068]]

Re: Weather Analysis Required for possible channel crossing.

>If you are thinking about catching a ferry across the channel and bringing it back then I'd probably say "hang on and wait for a better spell".

That was the plan: ferry on Saturday, civilised dinner, late breakfast and wander round town/prepare boat, leaving after lunch.

Minor consideration is £10/day marina fees on top of paying for Solent Berth. Also, if I delayed, SWMBO could crew instead (fluffier than experienced yachtie), however, how many weekends more do I wait ?

dv.

 

[duncan]

ugrib is giving that lull during Sunday but with it building through 15 knots (1800) to 16 (2100), from around 10 knots/ mid channel / midmorning, and for a little after that. Generally W.

clearly there is room for some local variations and timing changes

 

[Nautorius]

DV,

You look to have a very tight window on the weather and tide. If anything goes slightly wrong you may end up in big waves, building wind and stuck in the busiest shipping channel in the world.......but then it is your call! I am sure the S28 can take some bad weather...it is the crew I worry about!

If you can wait I would rather than risk it, but as skipper it is your call. For all we know Sunday may be flat calm and sunny!

Cheers

Paul /forums/images/graemlins/cool.gif

 

[peterb26]

Forecasts this morning are slightly better. Wight is "West or southwest 5 or 6 decreasing 3 or 4."

I'd leave earlier than 2pm if thats at all possible - you've got possibly 6 hours to do to get back to Hayling; I think its possible that the sea will be quite flat by tomorrow morning

If it were me I'd leave at dawn on the high water in the morning. According to Easytide thats at 4.30am.

Lunch back on Hayling and plenty of time to wash the boat off and tidy up.

But as the skipper, its all your responsibility and you must make the decision. /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Lastly, never ever consider the £10 a day when making the decision as you will occasionally get the wrong answer and the cost could be far more than a tenner........ /forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif

 

[peterb26]

Last point - I just ran Grib on the area for Saturday and Sunday.

In the Deauville area, its showing the wind dying away almost completely between 6pm and 9pm on Saturday evening.

Then very light winds on Sunday until perhaps 6pm across the entire central channel section.

Hence I would remain with my "early start as the best idea" theory if I were doing the trip.

Good luck Skipper!

 

[[2068]]

Thanks for all the advice. The current plan is to "go for it", but using the very early morning tide on the Sunday at about 05:00: hopefully back for lunch on Hayling... I've spoken to the marina, and they've promised that there will be someone to operate the lock at that time of the morning.

That expands our window, and means less pressure to hit the slot, and more contingency time.

The shopping will have to wait for another day!

dv.

 

[tcm]

I think the trick would be to sneak out the needles and run slightly E upchannel, "nipping" eastwards as you dare, but not going drect in that awful RYA pasage plany manner. Note that any S in the swel s knocked off as you aproach the french coast. So at the last 5-10 miles you charge down channel in much smoother water. On the way back , again in westerly swell, you head downchannel in smooth water giving you good angle to return E of IOW in triumph.

 

[Whitelighter]

I think DV is coming FROM France back to Hayling.

 

[[2068]]

Thanks again for the weather advice: as it turned out, it was a good call.

Problems often arrive from unexpected angles, and this was from left field: my experienced crew thought that a passport that expired in 2002 would get them on the ferry.

Wrong.

So, single handed it was.

Luckily the lock at Deauville was still on free flow for the 05:45 departure, but even so, getting the fenders and lines sorted in the onshore swell was tricky.

Next couple of hours was getting past the onshore chop, but then it all flattened off. Mid channel was a gentle rolling swell that could easily have put me back to sleep again.

About 30miles off the Nab tower, slight chop, down to 15/16kts for 10 miles or so, but then totally flat. Pedal to the metal, 24kts, and arrived in Sparkes 10:15, so 5 1/2 hours and 92 miles.

Now I'm inside, somewhat tired, and swmbo says "can we go out in the boat" /forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif

East Head should do it, I reckon...

dv.

 

[duncan]

welcome home - isn't it amazing how SWMBOs pick their moments?

/forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

 

[peterb26]

Glad you made it safely.