simonjk
Well-Known Member
Hi All,
It's been a while since I posted a "musing", so I thought you might like to know my current thinking behind the winter forecast.
I'm fed up with this weather. It seems an unrelenting progression of rain belt after rain belt streaming across the Atlantic and bringing strong winds and heavy periods of rain. But are there any changes on the way?
Well, there may be, at least in the shoirt term, although I don't expect these changes to be lasting very long. Let me show you why.
At the moment the forecast models are pointing to a change in conditions for the coming weekend. If you look at the forecast for Sunday from the <a href="http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ukmo/ukmo_pslv_144_00.gif">UK Met Office</a> and the <a href="http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/2006/12/11/basis12/euro/pslv_06121700_1112.gif">GFS</a> (American) model, you can see that they both build high pressure out to the weat of the UK and bring a cold northwesterly airflow through the British Isles and Ireland.
Now, I'm happy to go along with that and given the <a href="http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=kartealle&INT=72&LANG=en&JJ=2006&MM=12&TT=11&TIME=1200&TYP=niederschlag&KEY=UK&TIME=1165857641">high amounts of rain</a> that have fallen in the west of the past 3-days, the drier, colder weather should come as some relief.
Now, I do think that high pressure is going to be building to the south during the course of next week, and that may well build northwards. But what happens after this and what is the implication for Christmas?
Once again I have a suspicion that sea surface temperatures may hold the key. The SST's are forecast to be above normal throughout much of the winter and spring. Take a look at the <a href="http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=kartealle&INT=72&LANG=en&JJ=2006&MM=12&TT=11&TIME=1200&TYP=niederschlag&KEY=UK&TIME=1165857641">forecast</a> from the American CFS</a>. You can see that temperatures stay above normal in the North Atlantic west of Ireland although lsightly below normal west of Iberia.
I think that this is a set up for the westerly jet stream to be strengthened through the UK, Ireland and much of northern Europe. The result of this would be to continue the wet, windy and mild winter that we have currently experienced. From time to time there is a likelyhood thatthe high pressure may build north, bringing a briefer spell of northwesterly winds, introducing colder conditions, but overall I reckon things are dominated by rain.
Overall then, get set for a dull, unsettled winter. Windy at times and wet too.
Don't get to wet,
Simon
It's been a while since I posted a "musing", so I thought you might like to know my current thinking behind the winter forecast.
I'm fed up with this weather. It seems an unrelenting progression of rain belt after rain belt streaming across the Atlantic and bringing strong winds and heavy periods of rain. But are there any changes on the way?
Well, there may be, at least in the shoirt term, although I don't expect these changes to be lasting very long. Let me show you why.
At the moment the forecast models are pointing to a change in conditions for the coming weekend. If you look at the forecast for Sunday from the <a href="http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ukmo/ukmo_pslv_144_00.gif">UK Met Office</a> and the <a href="http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/2006/12/11/basis12/euro/pslv_06121700_1112.gif">GFS</a> (American) model, you can see that they both build high pressure out to the weat of the UK and bring a cold northwesterly airflow through the British Isles and Ireland.
Now, I'm happy to go along with that and given the <a href="http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=kartealle&INT=72&LANG=en&JJ=2006&MM=12&TT=11&TIME=1200&TYP=niederschlag&KEY=UK&TIME=1165857641">high amounts of rain</a> that have fallen in the west of the past 3-days, the drier, colder weather should come as some relief.
Now, I do think that high pressure is going to be building to the south during the course of next week, and that may well build northwards. But what happens after this and what is the implication for Christmas?
Once again I have a suspicion that sea surface temperatures may hold the key. The SST's are forecast to be above normal throughout much of the winter and spring. Take a look at the <a href="http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=kartealle&INT=72&LANG=en&JJ=2006&MM=12&TT=11&TIME=1200&TYP=niederschlag&KEY=UK&TIME=1165857641">forecast</a> from the American CFS</a>. You can see that temperatures stay above normal in the North Atlantic west of Ireland although lsightly below normal west of Iberia.
I think that this is a set up for the westerly jet stream to be strengthened through the UK, Ireland and much of northern Europe. The result of this would be to continue the wet, windy and mild winter that we have currently experienced. From time to time there is a likelyhood thatthe high pressure may build north, bringing a briefer spell of northwesterly winds, introducing colder conditions, but overall I reckon things are dominated by rain.
Overall then, get set for a dull, unsettled winter. Windy at times and wet too.
Don't get to wet,
Simon
