simonjk
Well-known member
Hi all,
Sorry for such a late night Musing, but there's a major change showing up on the GFS operatiional run. been on there for the past couple of runs now.
Ridge building west of the UK on Friday, turning the flow more northerly, then the anticyclone becoming a major feature into the following week. 500mb chart for 1800Z Friday....
http://expertcharts.weatheronline.c...011/12/03/basis18/euro/z500/11120918_0318.gif
...and the surface chart to go with it...
http://expertcharts.weatheronline.c...011/12/03/basis18/euro/prec/11120918_0318.gif
Now, this is my no means Gospel, and it could be delayed by a few days, but the very fact that the model is building in my mid-month high is raising my eyebrows.
Should note that the ensembles aren't backing this one up, but the GFS does have a track record of being the first to 'bug-up' a change like this.
I still reckon 15th'ish has a flag on it for the bigger change, but I'm watching this with interest.
Could be completely wrong of course, but that's the beauty of weather forecasting!
Have a good night, more tomorrow,
Simon
Sorry for such a late night Musing, but there's a major change showing up on the GFS operatiional run. been on there for the past couple of runs now.
Ridge building west of the UK on Friday, turning the flow more northerly, then the anticyclone becoming a major feature into the following week. 500mb chart for 1800Z Friday....
http://expertcharts.weatheronline.c...011/12/03/basis18/euro/z500/11120918_0318.gif
...and the surface chart to go with it...
http://expertcharts.weatheronline.c...011/12/03/basis18/euro/prec/11120918_0318.gif
Now, this is my no means Gospel, and it could be delayed by a few days, but the very fact that the model is building in my mid-month high is raising my eyebrows.
Should note that the ensembles aren't backing this one up, but the GFS does have a track record of being the first to 'bug-up' a change like this.
I still reckon 15th'ish has a flag on it for the bigger change, but I'm watching this with interest.
Could be completely wrong of course, but that's the beauty of weather forecasting!
Have a good night, more tomorrow,
Simon