simonjk
Well-Known Member
Hi,
I know, I know, it's been a while since I "mused". This is probably because I'm rushing around like I don't know what juggling the Business, TV and a PhD...not complaining though, it's great fun!
I've been looking at the sea surface temperature anomalies off the coast of Iberia for the past few weeks. Take a look at the chart for a couple of weeks ago first of all at
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/ARCHIVE/2006053100.glbl_00_sstanomaly.gif
The water around the UK is colder than normal and I've a view that this aids to suppressing convection and tends towards the creation of higher pressure at the surface. Note how the water off the coasts over western and southwest Iberia was just slightly above normal. The pressure chart for the day (at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/avn/Rtavn00120060531.png) matches in quite nicely with this idea; high pressure west of the UK, a shallow low west of Iberia.
Now, take a look at the SST anomaly a week later at https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/ARCHIVE/2006060700.glbl_00_sstanomaly.gif. The anomaly off the coasts of Iberia has strengthened with water well above normal. Again this coincides nicely with the pressure chart at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/avn/Rtavn00120060607.png. However, one thing to note. By now the sea temperatures around the UK and Ireland have also warmed, could this have been the indication that the high pressure would not last?
Another week on at https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/ARCHIVE/2006061400.glbl_00_sstanomaly.gif and the anomaly has weakened, both around the UK and Iberia. The pressure chat (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/avn/Rtavn00120060614.png) still shows high pressure over the UK and low pressure through Spain, although both are not as vigorous.
So, here's what I think we need to look for over the coming days and weeks. This is the current anomaly chart https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif. Cooler than normal water is in mid-North Atlantic, west of Ireland. Temperatures around the UK and Iberia and just above normal and so I think the tendency is towards lower pressures. I think what we need to watch out for is those water temperatures warming up again off Iberia for us to see a return to the hot east to southeast winds and drier weather of the past few weeks.
The ensemble predictions to 6th July (see http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m16.gif) certainly aren't showing this at the moment. They try to keep a normal pressure pattern for the time of year through the UK and Ireland with a ridge extending from the Azores high. At upper levels the flow is mainly westerly, indication that western and northern areas will be most at risk from precipitation. The Iberia heat low is probably in place.
I'm quite pleased in a way because I've been predicting a "normal" summer and I think this is what we'll get.
Of course, I may be way off the mark and have gone barking mad, but who knows, it makes for an interesting thought doesn't it?
That's all for now,
Best wishes,
Simon
I know, I know, it's been a while since I "mused". This is probably because I'm rushing around like I don't know what juggling the Business, TV and a PhD...not complaining though, it's great fun!
I've been looking at the sea surface temperature anomalies off the coast of Iberia for the past few weeks. Take a look at the chart for a couple of weeks ago first of all at
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/ARCHIVE/2006053100.glbl_00_sstanomaly.gif
The water around the UK is colder than normal and I've a view that this aids to suppressing convection and tends towards the creation of higher pressure at the surface. Note how the water off the coasts over western and southwest Iberia was just slightly above normal. The pressure chart for the day (at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/avn/Rtavn00120060531.png) matches in quite nicely with this idea; high pressure west of the UK, a shallow low west of Iberia.
Now, take a look at the SST anomaly a week later at https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/ARCHIVE/2006060700.glbl_00_sstanomaly.gif. The anomaly off the coasts of Iberia has strengthened with water well above normal. Again this coincides nicely with the pressure chart at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/avn/Rtavn00120060607.png. However, one thing to note. By now the sea temperatures around the UK and Ireland have also warmed, could this have been the indication that the high pressure would not last?
Another week on at https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/ARCHIVE/2006061400.glbl_00_sstanomaly.gif and the anomaly has weakened, both around the UK and Iberia. The pressure chat (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/avn/Rtavn00120060614.png) still shows high pressure over the UK and low pressure through Spain, although both are not as vigorous.
So, here's what I think we need to look for over the coming days and weeks. This is the current anomaly chart https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif. Cooler than normal water is in mid-North Atlantic, west of Ireland. Temperatures around the UK and Iberia and just above normal and so I think the tendency is towards lower pressures. I think what we need to watch out for is those water temperatures warming up again off Iberia for us to see a return to the hot east to southeast winds and drier weather of the past few weeks.
The ensemble predictions to 6th July (see http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m16.gif) certainly aren't showing this at the moment. They try to keep a normal pressure pattern for the time of year through the UK and Ireland with a ridge extending from the Azores high. At upper levels the flow is mainly westerly, indication that western and northern areas will be most at risk from precipitation. The Iberia heat low is probably in place.
I'm quite pleased in a way because I've been predicting a "normal" summer and I think this is what we'll get.
Of course, I may be way off the mark and have gone barking mad, but who knows, it makes for an interesting thought doesn't it?
That's all for now,
Best wishes,
Simon
