simonjk
Well-known member
Hi,
Hope you don't mind this posting, thought you might be interested as it might mean some more sailing.
If I had a pound for every time someone has asked me why the weather has been so bad in June, I'd certainly be able to afford more than a flight to Palma! It's something that I have spent much time broadcasting and writing about during the past few weeks, and one that is not going away.
Questions such as is it La Nina are always there, and it intrigues me as to how such urban myths get turned into folklore pretty quickly. However, this one isn't entirely incorrect, because it's been evident for sometime that the warm waters around the UK shores were playing their part in influencing the weather.
With sea temperatures above normal since last year, the potential for wet weather has always been there, and you can se how warm the water was at the beginning of June by looking at this chart http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.11.2007.gif. I have to admit I could not work out why the weather was not more unsettled when the waters were so warm, but it's probably down to cold air aloft not being able to become established for long enough to cause problems. This changed in July when a pool of cold air sank over the Atlantic at medium levels in the atmosphere and assisted the formation of low pressure.
Now, there are signals from the latest sea surface temperature charts that the tide has turned (excuse the pun!) If you look at this chart http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.9.2007.gif you will see a pool of cooler water now appearing off the southwest of the UK. This could be significant and may well be the precursor to a rise in pressure and the settling down of conditions.
You'll notice too the finger of colder water coming across the Atlantic. Now, that may be the focus for a rise in pressure as well. But, calm down, I don't think the rise will be prolonged and I don't expect a substantial spell of fine, hot weather. What I think may happen is that a ridge of high pressure extends from the Atlantic, through Ireland and into Wales and England, settling things down for a week or so and bringing drier weather.
Problems with this theory, as I hinted at above, is that the water around the UK coasts has been warmer than normal for some time and the weather didn't turn sour then. This shows how tricky the weather machine can be. It's a bit like a set of building blocks that requires several factors to be in place, in this case, we had the warm, moist air at the surface, but not the colder air aloft.
Of course, I could be totally wrong, but it will be interesting to see how things transpire.
Whatever the weather, keep the sun shining!
Regards,
Simon
Hope you don't mind this posting, thought you might be interested as it might mean some more sailing.
If I had a pound for every time someone has asked me why the weather has been so bad in June, I'd certainly be able to afford more than a flight to Palma! It's something that I have spent much time broadcasting and writing about during the past few weeks, and one that is not going away.
Questions such as is it La Nina are always there, and it intrigues me as to how such urban myths get turned into folklore pretty quickly. However, this one isn't entirely incorrect, because it's been evident for sometime that the warm waters around the UK shores were playing their part in influencing the weather.
With sea temperatures above normal since last year, the potential for wet weather has always been there, and you can se how warm the water was at the beginning of June by looking at this chart http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.11.2007.gif. I have to admit I could not work out why the weather was not more unsettled when the waters were so warm, but it's probably down to cold air aloft not being able to become established for long enough to cause problems. This changed in July when a pool of cold air sank over the Atlantic at medium levels in the atmosphere and assisted the formation of low pressure.
Now, there are signals from the latest sea surface temperature charts that the tide has turned (excuse the pun!) If you look at this chart http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.9.2007.gif you will see a pool of cooler water now appearing off the southwest of the UK. This could be significant and may well be the precursor to a rise in pressure and the settling down of conditions.
You'll notice too the finger of colder water coming across the Atlantic. Now, that may be the focus for a rise in pressure as well. But, calm down, I don't think the rise will be prolonged and I don't expect a substantial spell of fine, hot weather. What I think may happen is that a ridge of high pressure extends from the Atlantic, through Ireland and into Wales and England, settling things down for a week or so and bringing drier weather.
Problems with this theory, as I hinted at above, is that the water around the UK coasts has been warmer than normal for some time and the weather didn't turn sour then. This shows how tricky the weather machine can be. It's a bit like a set of building blocks that requires several factors to be in place, in this case, we had the warm, moist air at the surface, but not the colder air aloft.
Of course, I could be totally wrong, but it will be interesting to see how things transpire.
Whatever the weather, keep the sun shining!
Regards,
Simon