Weather Forecast...

[WayneS]

According to the BBC, Portsmouth can expect 40kn Southerlies on Thursday (The day my boat is being craned out, ouch) But Weatheronline.co.uk are forecasting Easterly force 1-3.

Pray somebody tell me who I should believe.

Wayne

 

[tony_brighton]

Looking at ECMWF there does seem to be a lot of wind around on Thursday. May not be 40kts but it certainly doesn't look Easterly. Wetheronline has W-NW 5-10kts.

As general rule for this summer I have had conflicting weather reports from different services every time I have looked. The forecasters seem to be getting it consistently wrong this year.

 

[andyball]

<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.onlineweather.com/v4/uk/sailing/SF22.html>http://www.onlineweather.com/v4/uk/sailing/SF22.html</A> reckon s or sw, no more than F4. So prob no-one knows for sure. I usually find the bbc's one to be the least accurate.

 

[Chilvers]

The BBC marine forecast on http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/marine/index.shtml?includes/selseybi.html predicts 17 knots. I usually find it more reliable but not a patch on the met office at http://www.metoffice.com/datafiles/inshore.html (although they don't forecast that far).

David

 

[NDG]

For forecasts beyond shipping/inshore waters forecast I always look at http://www.maalla.co.uk/uk-weather/ and try to work it out myself. You dont need to be an expert to do a basic interpretation of the synoptic charts - I'm not and it works for me!

 

[FlyingSpud]

I tend to agree that the Met Office have been all over the place this year with forecasts anything above 24 hours ahead. I sometimes think that they have become so dependant on the computer models they have that they are incapable of actually using any thought. They have a trick about looking out of the window on the actual day and then telling you what they see, they then use this as their basis for saying how accurate they are.
Having said all that, the weather for the moment is very hard to predict, as the systems (essentially ex Kylie) have been very complex. Frankly nobody really knows what it is doing.

 

[oldharry]

Weatheronline certainly do not look out of the window, or even at their anemometer. Ten days or so ago they put out a forecast at 6.30pm for winds 'continuing light .... 3 - 7kts' in the Solent. Winds at that time were gusting 44 knots, and had averaged over 30 knots for the preceding 8 hours or so!

Now we know that forecasting is not a precise science - but how wrong can you get it!

My view is that you shop around, and make an eductaed guess based on the majority opinion of the forecasters.

Multiply the bad weather predictions by 3 and you have a reasonably accurate forecast!

 

[FlyingSpud]

Defensive Weather forecasting

That would be the safe answer, but may be over cautious. I’ve not sat down and tried to study it (perhaps someone should?), but I get the feeling that most forecasts, certainly the met office, err on the side of caution anyway (that way, nobody can really get it in the neck). However, I also get the feeling this may be starting to rebound on the forecasters, as people are becoming so dismissive of their forecasts, they are assuming it isn’t going to be as bad as the prediction.

 

[Boathook]

I don't trust weatheronline. A few weeks ago they forecast F1-3 and it was a six!
Radio Solent was good and the coastguard gives a 3 day trend at certain times and they seemed ok on holiday this year

 

[steve_cronin]

I sometimes wonder....

if the wetteronline forecasts ever feel the touch of human hand. They offer forecasts for just about every town in the world so assuming that they don't employ an army of forecasters, their forecasts must be generated by a computer model. Sometimes there appears to be quite a diference between theirs and the Beeb's. However I think this can often be put down to them being slightly out of phase with each other. Most forecasts tell you what is going to happen, it's the WHEN that seems to vary.

Currently the forecast for Athens, Sunday on BBC is Temp Max 77f wind N3mph, Wetteronline gives Temp max 75F wind NW F1-2 so they aren't far out.

Steve Cronin

 

[sailbadthesinner]

From experience
and speaking witgh Bracknell the trouble is not what but when and where

Bracknell seem to know when depressions are coming but not when. This seems to be an increasing problem speaking to people. it could be climate change or a butterfly beating its wings in brazil. but obviously the forecast is not just the what but the when so it is crucial.

We had a prime example of this last week. trying to get to ireland. two depressions looked like joining together but when and where. There was going to be a window or the chance to skirt round but we could not pin it down despite numerous forcasts. I still thinmk the best is the synoptic chart and look at it yourself.

in the end we sat it out and did the right thing. 90 knots appeared at one point. not nice.

Maybe, just once, someone will call me 'Sir' without adding, 'you're making a scene'.