Weather forecast, western solent, saturday?

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alant

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Have sold my sailing dinghy & its going over to IoW. New owner intends sailing it from Keyhaven to Newtown, on Saturday. BBC weather showns ok wind strength, but windguru looks a bit more frisky. Anyone got a forecast other than those, just to confirm?
Normally I just peep at how the trees are blowing for this sort of trip, but new owner may want a more considered view.;)
 
alant said:
Have sold my sailing dinghy & its going over to IoW. New owner intends sailing it from Keyhaven to Newtown, on Saturday. BBC weather showns ok wind strength, but windguru looks a bit more frisky. Anyone got a forecast other than those, just to confirm?
Normally I just peep at how the trees are blowing for this sort of trip, but new owner may want a more considered view.;)
Click to expand...

I'd go with Windguru forecast and, having looked at it, I would tell the new owner to wait to Sunday - Saturday looks hideous.. heard that this may be the tail end of Hurricane Hermine now reaching us from across the Atlantic?? XCWeather and Windfinder seem to agree with Guru.. wet and windy....
 
They're all looking quite frisky for a dinghy and they'll likely be going into it on that route.

Personally I always take the worst forecast available from Met and Windfinder plus maybe another if it's tickling my comfort zone; wouldn't use BBC. That said, windfinder is showing f4-f5 but is blowing a 6 according to Bramblemet buoys right now so it's all just a guide. If the guy isn't experienced enough to judge the weather for himself then it's probably not a viable plan at the moment but too far out to call IMO.
 
I'm sure Simon won't mind me posting his latest up, just this once. SWIS is a very helpful service and I recommend it. I would echo the advice to avoid Saturday.

General situation:
On Thursday, an active area of low pressure moves from west of Ireland northwards toward Iceland. A cold front clears eastwards from Britain into the North Sea. An occluded front brings showers to western Scotland. A ridge of high pressure influences the south-east. Further fronts developing south of Ireland may bring increasingly murky and damp conditions to the Irish Sea & south-west.


9am Thursday: Wind W 18 gust 27kt, No low cloud, Dry, 20km (Good), 20C, 1011mb.

Midday Thursday: Wind W 18 gust 24kt, No low cloud, Dry, 19km (Good), 24C, 1013mb.

3pm Thursday: Wind W 14 gust 22kt, Broken cloud, Dry, 18km (Good), 20C, 1014mb.

6pm Thursday: Wind SW 13 gust 25kt, Broken cloud, Dry, 18km (Good), 17C, 1014mb.

9pm Thursday: Wind SW 10 gust 28kt, No low cloud, Dry, 20km (Good), 14C, 1015mb.

00:01am Friday: Wind SW 12 gust 32kt, No low cloud, Dry, 20km (Good), 15C, 1015mb.

6am Friday: Wind SW 14 gust 30kt, Broken cloud, Dry, 19km (Good), 17C, 1014mb.

9am Friday: Wind S 18 gust 33kt, Overcast sky, Light rain, 18km (Good), 17C, 1014mb.

Midday Friday: Wind S 21 gust 34kt, Overcast sky, Light rain, 18km (Good), 19C, 1014mb.

3pm Friday: Wind SW 22 gust 38kt, Broken cloud, Light rain, 19km (Good), 20C, 1013mb.

6pm Friday: Wind SW 18 gust 38kt, Broken cloud, Light rain, 19km (Good), 19C, 1012mb.

00:01am Saturday: Wind SW 16 gust 36kt, No low cloud, Dry, 19km (Good), 17C, 1011mb.

6am Saturday: Wind SW 20 gust 40kt, Broken cloud, Light rain, 14km (Good), 17C, 1011mb.

Midday Saturday: Wind SW 16 gust 31kt, Overcast sky, Light rain, 10km (Good), 18C, 1011mb.

00:01am Sunday: Wind W 7 gust 9kt, No low cloud, Dry, 20km (Good), 9C, 1016mb.

Midday Sunday: Wind S 15 gust 20kt, No low cloud, Dry, 20km (Good), 21C, 1017mb.

00:00am Monday: Wind SE 6 gust 9kt, No low cloud, Dry, 20km (Good), 12C, 1013mb.

Midday Monday: Wind SW 14 gust 22kt, Scattered cloud, Dry, 20km (Good), 22C, 1014mb.

00:00am Tuesday: Wind NE 2 gust 4kt, No low cloud, Dry, 20km (Good), 12C, 1015mb.

Midday Tuesday: Wind NE 14 gust 19kt, No low cloud, Dry, 20km (Good), 28C, 1017mb.
 
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