Weather for Chbg trip/comparing forecasters

[Twister_Ken]

Amongst the Cherbuggers there was some discussion about what weather to expect with consensus being hard to achieve. Having trawled the online sites just before setting off I found no unanimity, although everybody agreed that the weather would be 'frontal'.

Having spent more time on the channel than most this weekend, I can only conclude that just about every forecast could have claimed to be right at one or more points, but not at all of them. The only advertised wind I didn't see was SE, but I might have nodded off at that point.

My real conclusion is that online weather forecasters do somewhat use the shotgun approach, with Force 3 to 5, occ 6, being a really handy get-out-of-jail free card.

Of the lot, I think Theyr was about the best for what I saw.

 

[BlueSkyNick]

Yep, did the same and, as usual, assumed theyr would be most reliable, with the met office being worst case. Usually they 'come together' in the last 24 hours.

So it must be about time you documented your account of the weekend, innit? /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif

 

[tcm]

theyr.net

is recognised buy some (and i think simon keeling, professional forecaster hereabouts) to be the most accurate. Mind you, still wrong here and there...

 

[Sans Bateau]

I was monitoring the weather 'online' as they say, during the course of thurs. I agree, no conclusive forcast could be established.

I discussed it with the crew on thurs night, on board Galadriel, we came to the conclussion that it was unlikely to be more than a 6, but where from? Based on that we concluded the only thing to do was wait till we got out there and deal with it accordingly. Did'nt do us and harm.

Having said that we were setting out with a strong crew, if it were just me and SWMBO I would be a little more cautious.

 

[Magic_Sailor]

I find the divergence of forecasts by professional forecasters monstrous alarming - even until quite near to the time one is interested in - radio and television local forecast being just as bad as the national ones.

I find this astonishing as the same basic, raw data must be being used.

The best way I've found is not to use any other people to interpret the data to actually provide the forecast. Rather, I monitor the UK Met site every day (whether sailing or not) and look at their pressure chart forecasts for the next 4 days on a "rolling" basis. I then try to predict the weather myself and then "calibrate" my prediction against what actually occurs.

It's not 100% clearly but it does seem more reliable than other interpreted forecasts.

Magic

 

[dom]

I too like theyr. In my opinion the problem is that the forecasts are communicated in a very old fashioned and totally obsolete way. For starters as the french do the met should give their confidence attached with each forecast together with the other possibilities if relevant. Secondly they should explain what fronts are passing accross the channel on an hour by hour basis as theyr do so one has a clear idea what is going on. A 1200 synoptic chart and a load of words does no justice to the information they have. To the met's credit their pay internet service whilst a bit costly is a lot better.

 

[Evadne]

I've been using Theyr, and Halo before it for a while and it is usually head and shoulders above the rest, unless you are interested in rainfall when it's diabolically bad.

Add the Met office synoptic charts to this and it is possible to be as accurate as anyone else, and I would hope that the MO pay per forecast service is no more accurate than the freeview one. After all in the UK we've paid for it once with our taxes already. Style and interpretation detail are another matter, but I'd hope any yottie with a few years of crystal ball gazing under their belt could look at a synoptic chart and work out what's going on.

My main problem (as with this coming weekend) is that if the forecast is not to my liking, it is always possible to find one somewhere that is. Sometimes "Frontal weather with blustery winds" is about as accurate as anyone can get.

Has anyone else noticed that a 5-day forecast often turns out to be what actually happens, even if the 4-day, 3-day and 2-day forecast keep changing through the week? Or is it just my imagination?

 

[Talbot]

As we closed Cherbourg I heard three weather reports for the area we were in - from HMCG, Jersey radio and the french version. None of them agreed and were all different from the actual conditions! As I was setting out with a very nervous SWMBO and one other inexperienced crew, I was more than a tad interested in the weather and was tracking the isobar charts myself for the 5 days prior to the weekend.

Its a shame that some of these forecasters dont appear to take account of the actual conditions in the area

 

[Sans Bateau]

Made us chuckle, the weather on the board for the channel in the Capitinaire for sunday....

Wind F4 - F5 occ F6 .. should have read F6.

sea state, swell <.5 metre...

Did anyone catch a bit of .5 metre swell?

 

[BlueSkyNick]

Maybe it said <5 metre - the . was just a speck on the paper!

We looked at some walls of water which were 5 metres from trough to peak, in the early stages, until the tide changed.

 

[Sans Bateau]

Ahhh! now that explains it! A speck of dirt.

Yes we reckoned on the swell being about 20 plus feet, that was earlier, it did settle. I have some surfing pics I hope to be able to display.

The sea was actually rougher than when we crossed to Cork earlier this year in similar wind.

Nick

I will send you the group photos, as TK said "hearding cats", you'll see what I mean!