Weather fcst heads-up

zoidberg

zoidberg

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For this coming weekend....

Two of the forecasting models are now 'suggesting' that ex-Hurricane Humberto may lumber further SE than otherwise expected, routing over Ulster/SW Scotland with a central pressure as low as 960hPa, and bring extensive storms across most of the UK.

I'm not a forecaster - that's way above my pay grade! But I do keep an eye on what's MAYBE coming this way and don't assume, but check.... and check again.

Nothing set in stone just yet but we're seeing a trend south from all major models on Friday's low. This is why I've kept saying keep an eye on my updates if you're in Northern England!
Most outputs are now showing a 950mb low, some in the 940's on Friday. We need to keep a very close eye on the outputs now.


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All the models in Predict Wind, except the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) model, show similar tracks, a deep low moving from the SW in a NE direction and passing just N of Lewis, Outer Hebrides, with F10 winds close to the west of the Outer Hebrides. AIFS shows the low approaching Barra and crossing the north Scottish mainland but with F8 winds. None show the south coast being anything more than a windy day. The low is predicted to be around the 945 hPa, with AIFS showing 961 hPa.
 
RunAgroundHard said:
All the models in Predict Wind, except the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) model, show similar tracks, a deep low moving from the SW in a NE direction and passing just N of Lewis, Outer Hebrides, with F10 winds close to the west of the Outer Hebrides. AIFS shows the low approaching Barra and crossing the north Scottish mainland but with F8 winds. None show the south coast being anything more than a windy day. The low is predicted to be around the 945 hPa, with AIFS showing 961 hPa.
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A long long time ago, when the earth was young and so was I, it was discovered prudent to ask the learned base Senior Forecaster what was the second-ranking possible outcome from the then-Bracknell approved forecast.... and what the early signs of that might look like.

The reason was simple. I/we operated fuel/time limited aircraft quite a long way out into the Atlantic, and must plan to leave the 'task area' with just enough fuel to get back to a suitable base/runway with just sufficient legal reserves of fuel/time.

Should the weather conditions back at intended base/runway change radically - which DID happen on regular occasions - we could be faced with an unplanned diversion to somewhere else... always provided we had enough fuel/time to get there. That wasn't always guaranteed.

So it mattered that I/we keep a close eye on 'developments' so we wouldn't get an unexpected and unpleasant surprise when the weather that actually arrived differed radically from that which was - with the best of intentions - forecast by the boffins and their computenmaschins. Not a lot has changed, except the soaring cost.

We still have weather which hasn't read the forecast and thus misbehaves - and I still keep a close eye on 'developments' which could cause me discomfort, distress, or worse. I leave Acts of Faith to others.
 
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Thinking about the residents and particularly any boat owners there. Unfortunately, it is already a Cat 2. So they need all our good wishes.
 
wonkywinch said:
Bit breezy at The Needles. Hate to think what it's like uo in the Western Isles of Scotland right now.

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Sat by the fire with no wind at all in Stornoway an hour or so ago. Flat calm, slap bang in the centre of the low pressure. A dose of the bends perhaps but otherwise pretty unbelievable It’s blowing now though. Just looked at the North Sea - gusting 98kts on the Gullfaks platform
 
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