Update to previous weather thread for this weekend

[TheBishop]

Having been roundly derided for asking too soon, I wonder does anyone have a view on weather this weekend for a Southampton to Plymouth delivery run?

Looks grim on every site I have seen....any good news from you weather optimists out there?

The Bishop

 

[DAKA]

I will try to be as optimistic as possible

The late Friday weather window I was so enthusiastic about last week has moved forward slightly , Sat/Sun doesn't look like much settled fun but you only need a little gap to coincide with the tide and you could get lucky


As to the debate on long term (10 day) weather predictions I believe the link I gave last week has a consistent pastern with todays for the same period, try opening in side by side windows.

10 prediction
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010031700!!/

Todays 5 day prediction
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010032200!!/

Current thoughts Thursday or Later Sunday, but there is still time for a Sat/sunday window to emerge .

 

[mjf]

Metcheck shows Westerly 4/5.

Take a look at the Atlantic pressure chart too - loads of Low pressure about and Wx fronts associated with same.

As Daka says keep looking this week as a window might just pop open ;-) This time of the year its still too early. You don't want wind but there again fog is PITA too


Happy Now?

 

[TheBishop]

Thanks to DAKA and mjf for their thoughts. One further factor is that although I am in a Trader 50, which is a big old boat, and I have done this trip before in F5/6..though in stages....she was mothballed for pretty much all of last year so this is first sea trip for over 12 months! Finnings had just serviced the diesels and all ok there, but 10 miles out in a F5 is no time for finding gremlins. Suggest we reconvene on here on Thursday to check on DAKA's elusive window.

The Bishop

 

[neale]

At this time I am seeing westerly 6 or 7 on Saturday, dropping significantly on Sunday.

 

[mjf]

Looking at your username I would have thought that you might get some advice from a higher authority........

There may just be a small window on Saturday if you look at the pressure chart

 

[DAKA]

Having been roundly derided for asking too soon, I wonder does anyone have a view on weather this weekend for a Southampton to Plymouth delivery run?

Looks grim on every site I have seen....any good news from you weather optimists out there?

The Bishop

Hi I got your pm but decided to post my reply as several times we have been happy with chop on our boat but cruising company have struggled and some never to boat again, so I ask the rest of the forum to study wind,seastate ,tides and pick fault with my prediction, its close enough now for me to stick my neck out

The wind will drop off Friday night and the seastate will be tolerable early hours saturday.
The tide will help you to begin from 0730 but will pick up the swell, will be slack 0800 which would be a good time to take on swanage if you like to hug the coast but will turn against you 1500, calming the swell .

It isnt a 25knot day but 17-20 should be comfortable.

Fog still a possibility due to such a calm night on Friday.

I would continue to plan as it looks good for now

 

[TheBishop]

Trip West : Offshore or Coast Hugging?

Thanks daka,

All the entrails, web sites and met charts point to Saturday to get to either Dartmouth if we're knackered or Plymouth if we're not.

Jump off point early Saturday ( first light ) is Yarmouth IOW as we aim to get from Southampton to Yarmouth on Friday late afternoon.

So, the final question now my fellow forumites, is this:

Big bash offshore via St Albans and the Bill ..ie up to 12 miles out....or hug the coast via Swanage, St Albans Head inner, and inner round the Bill.

Given the boat ( Trader 50 ) I'm all for standing off and bossing it. Any other theories?

TheBishop

 

[DAKA]

Thats personal choice and I am not qualified to respond but I would turn right at Hurst castle three waypoints to clip swanage and st albans ,and then a mile off start point , I wouldnt go out unless peak season and under sail, you will miss the best bit

 

[TheBishop]

daka

As an ex yottie of 20 years I am with you on that plan. However, I have found the principal difference between sail and motor is that passage planning the former was all about the journey, and passage planning the latter is all about how quickly ( and safely ! ) we can get the journey over to enjoy the destination.

Kids get bored easily so we travel more at night for example.

On a good note: the weather gods look with us for this weekend as the wind forecasts are moderating. If any of you out there see us then call and/or wave.

Trader 50 " Jules Verne " on passage from Yarmouth to dartmouth/Plymouth this saturday/Sunday.

The Bishop

 

[strakeryrius]

So, the final question now my fellow forumites, is this:

Big bash offshore via St Albans and the Bill ..ie up to 12 miles out....or hug the coast via Swanage, St Albans Head inner, and inner round the Bill.

Given the boat ( Trader 50 ) I'm all for standing off and bossing it. Any other theories?

TheBishop

Stay in close - and I mean very close - so that you can see the fossils in the rocks at St Alban's for the most comfortable passage. I pass there very regularly - last weekend included if you see my thread, and the water about 25- 50 yards off the rocks is far less turbulent than further off and you are never in less than 7.5 metres even at LW. It takes a little nerve if you haven't done it before, but its worth it for the smoother ride. Just beware of pots right off the headland as the PITA lobbies seem to delight in putting them out right where you would naturally take a course to go past.