Talking of weather

[dralex]

I have my summer trip planned out, including nice cheap flights booked just in case I need to use them. Who do people trust the most for longer term forecasts ie 7-10 days ahead. I'm planning on taking the boat out to Brest in early June for a few weeks, but have booked flights back the previous weekend in case the weather forecast is bad for the following week and I have to take the boat out early. I also have to think up a really good excuse if I go earlier as I'll have to miss a wedding.

 

[dralex]

This is actually a serious post- any opinions welcome regarding the best source of longer term forecasts. Is the Met Office Talk to a Forecaster service any good?

Thanks

 

[BrendanS]

any weather forecast more than 3 days out is no more than a calculated gamble

 

[tcm]

my post on mobochat has turned up lots of sites which should allow you to get some sort of range limits on best/worst.

As for accuracy, i wd say best list the forecasts a week out and see who is best. They are "modelling" - essentially educated guessing based on plenty of scientific and not-so-scientific bodge factors.

 

[starboard]

Would suggest as previous stated any thing more than 3 days hence will be a lottery. I watch the 6 day farming forecast on Sundays, I can guarantee for 85% of them that by Friday the forecast is totally wrong. Meteorology is such an inpricise science and despite all the modern technology a glass ball at times would do better. Last season I logged the 3 day forecast whilst sailing for 3 months, by day 3 again the forecast 85% of the time was way out. Unless you have a very stable high preassure system established you have as good a chance as Michael Fish at forecasting the outcome!!!!

Paul.