Doesn't look anybetter for the wedding I'm going to on Sat - the marquee will blow away if it doesn't collapse under the weight of rain first... let's hope the timing of the forecast low is wrong!
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...But just look at all the sunshine and light sailing breeze further south!
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surprise, surprise, that's why I am looking. The ECMWF forecast shows the whole lot settling down by 6th July, and the Azores High taking shape.
That has got to be the most optimistic prediction I have ever heard. May I ask what you are taking? I need some?
On the 4th we will be under a really bad low and another one in mid Atlantic. The Azores High has been around since just after the AZAB left the area. It only went on Holiday when it saw them start out from the UK.
It was actually the Azores High and the European High that trapped the low on Monday.
Sorry, I forgot you were down there. Just to make is clear there is no expertise. I made two serious mistakes that nearly cost the boat, one when I did not know what I was doing in the first month of sailing, and one years later when I believed the Australian weather charts.
What are you planning La Coruna to Brest or Gihon to La Rochelle?
The lows at present are taking 4 days to get from Canada to the Brest. I think you will have to wait a while longer until you know what you are doing. Even if you look at your ECMWF and trust anything 240 hours in the future they are showing a front/low leaving Canada and a isolated low lost next to the Azores. The sea water temperature of the Atlantic is odd at present with a colder than usual Atlantic current and hotter section in the centre, south of that low, and a cold Aftrican coast.
It is amazing that we are so dependent on a flow of water through a narrow pass so far away and so far out of our control.
We are doing La Coruna to Vannes, planning to set off on Sunday 8th July.
I don't trust anything 240hours in the future either, but its all I have right now, and as the date approaches I can not only look for more detailed forecasts, but also follow the trends.
Thanks for your comments on the Atlantic stuff - I will take that into account during the next week.