Round the Island Race Forecast 28/6/12

[simonjk]

Good morning,

Little change in the forecast this morning.

All models agreeing on the area of low pressure being to the west of Scotland through Saturday. An occluded front is going to be east of the Island on Saturday morning, this bringing some broken cloud and showers with it.

Following, and probably by around daybreak, there will be sunny spells through the Island and it should be dry.

Winds SW to end F4/low-end F5 for the early starters and nipping to a F5 as they round the west of the IOW. I do think more chance of speeds close to a F5 along the southern coasts of the Island due to compression with a top-end F4 offshore. I'm also tempted to now keep speeds at a F4 over the east of the islands too.

Main uncertainty right now is associated with the wind speeds which could be half a force more than I've shown above.

There is more detail here http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebroun...358.5&city=Cowes&country=GB&vislat=51&vislon= and the first of the high resolution wind forecasts will be in by 6pm this evening.

Keep the sun shining!

Simon

 

[matt1]

Hi Simon
The Raymarine sponsored fcast is talking about significantly more wind, notably gusts to mid 30kn. Is this a different interpretation of where they think the front will be, especially as they are talking about more showers than you sem to think?

 

[simonjk]

Think the mid-30's is too high (although not impossible).

As I said on my forecast I may have to increase the speeds by half a force, but at the moment I am happy where they are.

Gusting is a possibility as trough moves through, but at the moment we are still too far away to be putting that much detail into the forecast.

Main think to take for the forecast at the moment is that speeds increase western Solent and around the Needles, as well as close to the southern coast. And that there will be a decrease to the lee of the Island.

Really it will be Friday morning before speds can start to be nailed down.

Hope that helps?

Simon

 

[simonjk]

Gusts

This from my site at http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsgfsopukwindgust.php

Shows gusts in mph at for period midday to 6pm on Saturday.

Remember this is just model produced data and tends to show extremes. But may be of use.

Simon

 

[simonjk]

Arrghhh, changed!

 

[simonjk]

Video update

Today's video forecast now online too at http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebroun...358.5&city=Cowes&country=GB&vislat=51&vislon=

Simon

 

[matt1]

Really useful thx. Very interesting