Rather dramatic forecast for UK weather next week

kcrane

Well-Known Member
Joined
13 Jul 2005
Messages
1,933
Location
Cheltenham
Visit site
The forecast for the next week or so is rather extreme, I wonder if we will get out at all in January.

Screenshot_2015-01-09-08-00-46_zpsdljjoo1e.png
 
As a newbie to channel boating I have read these MBY weather threads with trepidation. Some forecasters seem to threaten gales when reality is mild breeze. Many on here use multiple sources but as far as I can see all seem to err on the side of caution in various degrees. I guess litigation for false promises rests somewhere in their corporate minds and I would agree with them if I were looking from their side.

Thursday last I took my boat round from Portland (location of maintenance activity) to Weymouth (home berth). Not exactly difficult and the wind was westerly so seas were protected by Chesil beach and Portland island. Minimum forecast on all the sites I viewed was F5-F6. So we went anyway to do the trip even though it was P*****g down with rain. Reality was much less wind (F3 gusts max) and the rain stopped pretty much as we boarded and we went out for about 3 miles to see what was what. Long big rollers about so wave height was probably 2m but not at all dangerous. So yes, hilly rather than choppy.

What does that mean to me as a Newbie if the worst comes to the worst?
1. I take refuge in that most boats seem to survive when the crew that have abandoned the vessel don't. So stick with the boat even though it feels like a washing machine
2. Never trust a forecast they are only a guide and use your common sense and mark 1 eyeball when you are there.
3. Keep the engines in good order so if you look like or are close to getting in the doodoo you can power away to minimise washing machine experience

So now the more experienced on here will tell me why my rule of thumb is a false premise. (And thus I will learn more!)
 
As a newbie to channel boating I have read these MBY weather threads with trepidation. Some forecasters seem to threaten gales when reality is mild breeze. Many on here use multiple sources but as far as I can see all seem to err on the side of caution in various degrees. I guess litigation for false promises rests somewhere in their corporate minds and I would agree with them if I were looking from their side.

Thursday last I took my boat round from Portland (location of maintenance activity) to Weymouth (home berth). Not exactly difficult and the wind was westerly so seas were protected by Chesil beach and Portland island. Minimum forecast on all the sites I viewed was F5-F6. So we went anyway to do the trip even though it was P*****g down with rain. Reality was much less wind (F3 gusts max) and the rain stopped pretty much as we boarded and we went out for about 3 miles to see what was what. Long big rollers about so wave height was probably 2m but not at all dangerous. So yes, hilly rather than choppy.

What does that mean to me as a Newbie if the worst comes to the worst?
1. I take refuge in that most boats seem to survive when the crew that have abandoned the vessel don't. So stick with the boat even though it feels like a washing machine
2. Never trust a forecast they are only a guide and use your common sense and mark 1 eyeball when you are there.
3. Keep the engines in good order so if you look like or are close to getting in the doodoo you can power away to minimise washing machine experience

So now the more experienced on here will tell me why my rule of thumb is a false premise. (And thus I will learn more!)

As a fellow newbie, I'm probably not the best to advise but what I've leaned thus far is that the only accurate forecast is the one out the window!

I live and do most of my boating around Torbay and the weather can be significantly different within a few miles anyway - so whilst a gloomy forecast may be accurate 5 miles away, we can have flat calm and bathed in sunshine (although whenever I'm not working it seems to be the other way around :rolleyes:)

Best I've found is to learn as much about how to read the weather as you can and plan accordingly - erring on the side of caution. There are resources that will show you air pressure, track of jetstream, radar images of cloud etc and for short range forecasting (perhaps 4-5 days) you can learn how to assess probable outcomes and trajectories. Longer range stuff is much harder, but even the professionals don't always get that right!
 
Many years ago I went from Lyme Regis to West Bay in a 21' boat in a F8. However it was a Northerly and the sea was flat calm. Same for you in a W from Portland to Weymouth. Had it been a F4 Southerly I probably wouldn't have been out there. So much is down to wind direction rather than strength.
 
Top