Sgeir
Well-Known Member
Let's say you trail a line and a mackeral lure and your historical success rate is 33.3%, or one in three, what are the chances of catching fish next time you're out?
Probability theory with fish
- Thread starter Sgeir
- Start date
landaftaf
Well-Known Member
depends if you trail your lure again I guess
Marsupial
Well-Known Member
one in three
sailbadthesinner
Well-Known Member
well either my fish finder is telling porkies or i have the worst lures in the world
last sunday managed to catch nought in an hour with all manner of fish supposedly swimming past, probably not mackerel though
still, last time out the old man went out for an hour and caught 14 in ten minutes and had to come back early
thing with mackerel is they shoal and when you hit a hungry bunchyou are swamped
i reckon its about a 90% of the fish caught on 10% of the trips
last sunday managed to catch nought in an hour with all manner of fish supposedly swimming past, probably not mackerel though
still, last time out the old man went out for an hour and caught 14 in ten minutes and had to come back early
thing with mackerel is they shoal and when you hit a hungry bunchyou are swamped
i reckon its about a 90% of the fish caught on 10% of the trips
bbg
Well-Known Member
" what are the chances of catching fish next time you're out?"
100% - all you have to do is try the lure once. If you don't catch anything, bring it in and try a second time. By the third time you try, you are certain to have something on the line.
100% - all you have to do is try the lure once. If you don't catch anything, bring it in and try a second time. By the third time you try, you are certain to have something on the line.
bobfrost
Well-Known Member
I think that both one third and 100% are both right depending on how you model the problem. (this is why professionally I avoid probability and its b*****d cousin statistics aka scientific guessing whenever possible).
If you fancy really doing your head in follow this link web page to the famous Monty Hall problem. In this the very act of chosing would appear to change the probability involved (a touch of the quantum here - does the observation change the result????).
There is also a computer simulation on the page which 'proves' that the counter intuitive answer is correct.
I'm sticking to pure and mechanics.
If you fancy really doing your head in follow this link web page to the famous Monty Hall problem. In this the very act of chosing would appear to change the probability involved (a touch of the quantum here - does the observation change the result????).
There is also a computer simulation on the page which 'proves' that the counter intuitive answer is correct.
I'm sticking to pure and mechanics.
BrendanS
Well-Known Member
I used to love statistics (ok, I'm mad) but the real answer to this question is 0% as all us failed fishermen will attest.
bobfrost
Well-Known Member
Brendan apologies in advance ............... glad to see you are getting out more now /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif
A guy was walking along and saw a frog sitting on the side of the road. The frog said, "If you kiss me, I'll turn into a beautiful princess." The guy picked up the frog, looked it over, smiled, put it into his pocket and continued on his way.
A few minutes later the frog said, "If you kiss me, I'll turn into a beautiful princess and stay with you for a week!" The guy took the frog out of his pocket, smiled, and put it back into his pocket.
A few minutes later the frog said "If you kiss me, I'll turn into a beautiful princess, stay with you for a week and do ANYTHING you want!!" The guy took the frog out of his pocket again, smiled at it, and put it back into his pocket.
Finally, the frog said, "I said that if you would just kiss me, I would turn into a beautiful princess and do ANYTHING you want for a whole week! Why won't you kiss me?" The guy said, "Look, I'm a statistician and I don't have time for girl friends, but a talking frog is kind of neat."
A guy was walking along and saw a frog sitting on the side of the road. The frog said, "If you kiss me, I'll turn into a beautiful princess." The guy picked up the frog, looked it over, smiled, put it into his pocket and continued on his way.
A few minutes later the frog said, "If you kiss me, I'll turn into a beautiful princess and stay with you for a week!" The guy took the frog out of his pocket, smiled, and put it back into his pocket.
A few minutes later the frog said "If you kiss me, I'll turn into a beautiful princess, stay with you for a week and do ANYTHING you want!!" The guy took the frog out of his pocket again, smiled at it, and put it back into his pocket.
Finally, the frog said, "I said that if you would just kiss me, I would turn into a beautiful princess and do ANYTHING you want for a whole week! Why won't you kiss me?" The guy said, "Look, I'm a statistician and I don't have time for girl friends, but a talking frog is kind of neat."
BrendanS
Well-Known Member
Funny thing, I was straight A student, apart from maths. Could never get my head around it, which made calculus in Physics a bit tough!
Then in Uni met a Stats Prof who was a gem - realised I could actually understand the models even though I would still add 2+2 and make 22. So he overthrew the uni regs on calculators in exams, and allowed me (and rest of class) to take programmable calculators into exam, on basis I understood the stats and theory behind them, and how to apply them, but had a 'dyslexia' with numbers.
I walked out of exam 1hr 40 minutes into a 3 hour exam with all answers completed, written explanations as well as worked examples. Got near on 95% from that exam thanks to the help of that fine educationalist, and many students who had done A level maths struggled for pass mark (they used wrong models, and didn't understand why). Just a different way of thinking I suspect.
Can't remember much about stats these days, but it helped me conquer my fear of numbers, and went on to program in scientific languages like Fortran and all sorts of other things I might not have attempted if my maths teachers had been the be all and end all. (not knocking maths teachers, just that this one guy realised that I could perform if approached from a different angle)
Then in Uni met a Stats Prof who was a gem - realised I could actually understand the models even though I would still add 2+2 and make 22. So he overthrew the uni regs on calculators in exams, and allowed me (and rest of class) to take programmable calculators into exam, on basis I understood the stats and theory behind them, and how to apply them, but had a 'dyslexia' with numbers.
I walked out of exam 1hr 40 minutes into a 3 hour exam with all answers completed, written explanations as well as worked examples. Got near on 95% from that exam thanks to the help of that fine educationalist, and many students who had done A level maths struggled for pass mark (they used wrong models, and didn't understand why). Just a different way of thinking I suspect.
Can't remember much about stats these days, but it helped me conquer my fear of numbers, and went on to program in scientific languages like Fortran and all sorts of other things I might not have attempted if my maths teachers had been the be all and end all. (not knocking maths teachers, just that this one guy realised that I could perform if approached from a different angle)
eyupdougdown
Well-Known Member
Potentially it's possible to catch fish when the situation allows itself. One cannot blame it on one factor or another, it just happens whenever. The fact is, noone needs to fish as we can all survive without them. Leave the poor buggers be and make yourselves a cheese butty to go instead. With fries sunny side up.
BrendanS
Well-Known Member
Ah, but nothing to beat freshly caught Mackeral barbequed on drift wood on a sandy beach somewhere in W Wales, other than freshly caught Bass, barbequed on drift wood on a sandy beach somewhere in W Ireland (like Dingle).
I'll keep going for the buggers, as well as the rather tasty young rabbits that keep trying to dig holes in my lawns, and end up being gutted and skinned instead
I'll keep going for the buggers, as well as the rather tasty young rabbits that keep trying to dig holes in my lawns, and end up being gutted and skinned instead
bobfrost
Well-Known Member
You are right Brendan. It's very much my problem that I can't get my head round a model for statistics at the higher level.
I can 'visualise' vectors, moments and SHM which my A level kids find difficulty with, however the concept of a 'variance' (for example) leaves me cold.
Whilst I can flog most maths to the kids as being useful, relevent etc etc the best I can do with stats is tell them that it's important as they can usually use it to tell how the Government is lying to them!
Best wishes
Bob /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
p.s. I see from your profile that you are a professional nipple tweaker. As a mere amateur how can I turn this into a profitable sideline? /forums/images/graemlins/blush.gif
I can 'visualise' vectors, moments and SHM which my A level kids find difficulty with, however the concept of a 'variance' (for example) leaves me cold.
Whilst I can flog most maths to the kids as being useful, relevent etc etc the best I can do with stats is tell them that it's important as they can usually use it to tell how the Government is lying to them!
Best wishes
Bob /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
p.s. I see from your profile that you are a professional nipple tweaker. As a mere amateur how can I turn this into a profitable sideline? /forums/images/graemlins/blush.gif
jimi
Well-Known Member
My success rate is 0 for the last two years ... am I sailing too fast?
BrendanS
Well-Known Member
As a matter of interest, how much stats is taught in schools these days? I suspect some of your more awkward but bright students might get a buzz out of it, especially those who are also studying science, where it's very applicable.
Students who struggle to understand straight maths may very well come to terms with simple stats like student-t test, Chi squared, etc, and suprise you a lot.
It may give them a lot more confidence, as it did to me, and make your life a lot easier. Don't really know the answer to any of these questions
PS volunteer nipple tweaker professionals are applying too quickly for me to give them the time I need to become successful in their role, so job opportunities are limited at present. Besides, I like my job and don't want too much competition! <g>
Students who struggle to understand straight maths may very well come to terms with simple stats like student-t test, Chi squared, etc, and suprise you a lot.
It may give them a lot more confidence, as it did to me, and make your life a lot easier. Don't really know the answer to any of these questions
PS volunteer nipple tweaker professionals are applying too quickly for me to give them the time I need to become successful in their role, so job opportunities are limited at present. Besides, I like my job and don't want too much competition! <g>
eyupdougdown
Well-Known Member
See, the problem we gor ere is on high springs is Mackeral digging holes in the yard at night and making the crane wobble in the day. Now wot's the probability of that?
BrendanS
Well-Known Member
Slight to moderate. Just use any inshore or coastal forecast for weather and adjust to suit
bobfrost
Well-Known Member
Up to GCSE (higher paper) mean.mode,median,range. Grouped frequency. Cumulative frequency. Box & whisker.
Standard deviation and variance were taken out of the sylabus about a year ago as part of the general dumbing down.
(Further example of dumbing down being matrices which used to be in the GCSE higher and are not now touched until upper sixth by the double maths kids).
At sixth form I specialise in Mechanics (as did Civil Engineering first time at Uni) and a colleague does stats.
Stats is considered a bit of a soft option at A level along with Decision Mathematics (which can only be described as mathematics for non mathematicians).
One of my brothers who is a University Lecturer despairs at the lack of knowledge of his undergraduates.
There was an absolutely brilliant In Our Time today on Radio 4 about Renaissance Mathematics. Available in MP3 and Podcast here which you might find interesting.
Bob
Standard deviation and variance were taken out of the sylabus about a year ago as part of the general dumbing down.
(Further example of dumbing down being matrices which used to be in the GCSE higher and are not now touched until upper sixth by the double maths kids).
At sixth form I specialise in Mechanics (as did Civil Engineering first time at Uni) and a colleague does stats.
Stats is considered a bit of a soft option at A level along with Decision Mathematics (which can only be described as mathematics for non mathematicians).
One of my brothers who is a University Lecturer despairs at the lack of knowledge of his undergraduates.
There was an absolutely brilliant In Our Time today on Radio 4 about Renaissance Mathematics. Available in MP3 and Podcast here which you might find interesting.
Bob
BrendanS
Well-Known Member
Blimey, things have changed. standard deviation and variance were considered as basic to understanding of any mathematical science problems, and were taught as early as O level. If that has been taken out of the curriculum, no wonder your brother thinks undergraduates are under educated.
SWMBO is doing an OU course, and the stats part, while no means challenging to someone educated in it, was no soft option, nor is stats a soft option, unless they have dumbed it down to that level.
Stats, done correctly is a challenging option. At uni, at PhD level, the stats lecturers role, amongst teaching, was to review any papers that might be published, so that any embarassing mistakes by non statistical lecturers, professor or students, would be nipped in the bud. In fact they encouraged people to talk to them before they set up experiments, so the statistical analysis side could be decided before the experiment started - a much more cost effective way of doing things, rather than find your experiment was useless after you'd spent 3 years and 10's of thousands of pounds doing a useless set of experiments that had no value.
Maybe those guys were exceptional in being proactive, but they did a good job.
SWMBO is doing an OU course, and the stats part, while no means challenging to someone educated in it, was no soft option, nor is stats a soft option, unless they have dumbed it down to that level.
Stats, done correctly is a challenging option. At uni, at PhD level, the stats lecturers role, amongst teaching, was to review any papers that might be published, so that any embarassing mistakes by non statistical lecturers, professor or students, would be nipped in the bud. In fact they encouraged people to talk to them before they set up experiments, so the statistical analysis side could be decided before the experiment started - a much more cost effective way of doing things, rather than find your experiment was useless after you'd spent 3 years and 10's of thousands of pounds doing a useless set of experiments that had no value.
Maybe those guys were exceptional in being proactive, but they did a good job.
bobfrost
Well-Known Member
The trouble is that mathematicians are not attracted to teaching mathematics (yes, it is a money thing).
Here in Kent only 25% of secondary mathematics teacher have maths at above 'O' level. Fortunately in my school, as from September, we will have all degree level maths teachers.
Kids at A level are going for soft options i.e. anything that ends with 'studies' or 'ology' (the exception that proves the rule being Biology').
If things carry on like this we will end up with more Sports Science graduates than Sunday League footballers and more Forensic Scientists than bodies.
Hey.........this thread was about fishing. What's going on??????????
Here in Kent only 25% of secondary mathematics teacher have maths at above 'O' level. Fortunately in my school, as from September, we will have all degree level maths teachers.
Kids at A level are going for soft options i.e. anything that ends with 'studies' or 'ology' (the exception that proves the rule being Biology').
If things carry on like this we will end up with more Sports Science graduates than Sunday League footballers and more Forensic Scientists than bodies.
Hey.........this thread was about fishing. What's going on??????????
BrendanS
Well-Known Member
It's called Fred Drift, but all the more valid for being genuine conversation.
What you are saying scares me. How can O level type maths teachers begin to comprehend how to teach bright students, at A level and above - they won't have enough understanding themselves surely?.
Maybe explains why one of my kids (not mine at all, but long story) has a dimwit maths teacher who doesn't begin to understand teaching. Her idea of increasing her attention in class is to ask more questions of her, and get her to put hand up more often. No idea that engaging her might be more productive.
What you are saying scares me. How can O level type maths teachers begin to comprehend how to teach bright students, at A level and above - they won't have enough understanding themselves surely?.
Maybe explains why one of my kids (not mine at all, but long story) has a dimwit maths teacher who doesn't begin to understand teaching. Her idea of increasing her attention in class is to ask more questions of her, and get her to put hand up more often. No idea that engaging her might be more productive.
