Price Outlook?

[petem]

As mentioned in other threads, there's some real bargains out there at the moment. What's interesting is that some of the boats are very desirable models S23, S28, T37, etc. Do the panel think that prices will continue to drop? With very little to be optomistic about in the boating world I can't see anything other than a price correction on the cards.

Pete

 

[gjgm]

dont think its just boats.. any big ticket leisure items seem to be falling.
But on some of the models you note, I think its also a bit of reality. Looking earlier in the year, there were pages of some of these models for sale, all at more or less the same price. Now, if you really want to sell it, you made a mistake waiting for almost September before realising the price will have to move down.
But, I agree with you, I also think boat prices are going to drop.

 

[PowerYachtBlog]

I think used boat prices are for sure to drop another 20% realistically in the next year

what is strange is that new boat prices are still sky high and many builders still say they are sold out for 2008 especially the famous brands
may be this still happens becouse production is still in low numbers for the boating industry
Cranchi and Sessa build 1000 a year each
Sunseeker 350
Princess 300
Azimut 250/300 a year
Fairline 250
Gobbi Atlantis 200
Ferretti 50/100 includes Custom Line
Pershing 50
Riva 50

meanwhile the used market is suffering especially here in the med, more then ever
one of the main reasons IMO is the leasing factor which really reduced used boats clients from Italy, France and Germany to a minimum

another issue but not affecting much as yet is the doubling or tripling of prices in the maintenance cost in the last minus 10 years (berths, engines service, yards etc) but also the increase in fuel costs

can the boat market still grow in the double digit % it did from the mid nineties till to day, we have to wait and see
but I think a general slow down is happening as most new models in the middle size market are only general improvements of previous ones

 

[Gludy]

I think they have still some way to drop yet.

Some makes eg Sealine have kept a bit of an artificial market going in buying back models at the same price as sold if upgrading. The result was a collection of boat cleared off to sensible people like Essex, Other makes did and are doing similiar things in other ways in trying to control the market by hoarding boats that are not selling. I have seen the same boats for sale for 4 years in some yards and they are not being used. Its just mad economics.

I also see the red issue hitting big when folks have to fork out foe the next fill up after November 2008 - so the full effect of that is yet to come.

A boat will always sell at the right price. There is a host of boats for sale at too high a price and that means that at some point reality is going to be foirced into the market with the resulting sudden price drops.

Overall, I see well over 30% drop still to come.

 

[alt]

Someone find me a KAD32 S23 for £30-32k and ill buy you a keg of Guinness!

 

[Nautorius]

I think Older Used boats are only going down...and down. Usual issues of economy and maintenance. Maintenance costs seem to have doubled in the last 5 years, and we know fuel will soon do that. Also factor in berthing costs. UK as lots of berths but they are expensive! If you are buying a new £300k boat then the berthing costs of £10k are stomach-able (but still way too high). If you buy that boat when it is 15 years old you pay £85k and berthing costs still £10k plus higher maintenance as more things go wrong.

Boats under 30ft are very susceptible to market changes (interest rates, unemployment etc) as these are bought by starter boaters and those on a tight budget. Although a 20% drop would hurt all, a £10k loss on a £50k boat is manageable. Of course you still need buyers. The big drop will be in the 30-50ft boat of 5-20 years old. These are just becoming uneconomical to run in the UK. So expect bigger drops to come. That 9 year old S34 at £69k seems cheap, but remember in 1998 they were selling those for £107k at the boat show! That is only a 35% drop and realistically the price it should be. There are just not the number of reasonably priced berths in suitable locations to keep these big girls attractive.

The new boats will continue to go up, as those buyers will always pay a premium. The second hand ones will take a major dip IMHO. I think Interest rates are topping out (maybe one more rise) so we will have a quiet winter and maybe some panic selling. I think next spring should see a stabilisation until the Red effect kicks in more aggressively on the big thirsty boats.

I think the £50k-£200k market has seen a 15% drop this year and we may see another 10-15% drop off over the winter. But I reckon that will be about it for most popular brands. Personally I am very glad we did not buy a £100k+boat at the end of last year start of this year. But that is not to say I won't buy one next year.....the market for £200-£500k boats is where a lot of pain may be felt.....especially for models which were flawed or have ran into problems.....

Those with money are buying new or nearly new <2 year old. Those on a budget are running for cover...fast!

Cheers

Paul /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

 

[Nautorius]

Paul,

How do you see different segments of the market changing? A sweeping 30% off all boats is not really informative. With Red Diesel do you think will be swayed back into Flybridges rather than Sportscruisers, or even SD's like Nimbus?

Cheers

Paul /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

 

[henryf]

Do you not think there has always been ambiguity in the pricing of second hand boats. Because virtually all of them are sold by brokers on a sale or return basis with the prices dictated by owners who`s stock phrase seems to be I`m not sure if I really want to sell but would consider letting it go for £xxx,xxx. How often have you been to see a boat that is still being used by the vendor with his socks, pants & sometimes even worse strew around the cabin.

Offset that against the boats that are on the market to be sold, sensibly priced and find a home without too much fuss.

Similarly there will always be "obscure" manufacturers who`s products will be that bit harder to move on not being well known.

August is traditionally a quiet month as people go away for their holls and buyers are waiting to see what`s at Southampton. Certainly I don`t think it`s meltdown just yet.

We didn`t have any trouble getting trade bids on our Phantom 42 having purchased a new Princess 42 although have decided to go ahead and sell it ourselves once we`ve picked up the new boat this weekend. We`ll see if it sells but am quietly confident we shouldn`t have too much trouble. Then again I`m a realist and just because the only other 2 for sale in the UK are priced at £180k and £190k respectively it doesn`t mean that`s what the boat is worth. Similarly people talking of huge discounts & price reductions are likely to struggle if the boat is priced right in the first place. At £190k I`d be angling for a few quid off myself but priced sensibly I think boats make their money.

Henry

 

[Nautorius]

Henry,

Yep, got to agree with the ambiguity bit. Boats always up for sale at more than worth. Sensibly priced boats will sell always, as yours will.

Cheers

Paul /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

 

[Gludy]

IMHO You are of course right - different parts of the market will suffer different drops.

My 30% plus was just a general rate.

What follows is just my opinion – it may be way out from what actually happens. I am willing to change it anytime as evidence to do so presents itself.

I think the least to change are the large super displacement and semi displacement boats 70 foot plus. I see little difference in those which have an international market. My next boat is being speced to be sold either side of the pond so that I have a vast market.

I see the older large flybridge planing or planing sports boats dropping a lot. There is no market out in the Med for these large older boats that can prop them up and the UK market will be wiped out with the red issue. I can see dropping up to 40% or more to move them.

Older large displacement/semi displacement boats will drop less but they will drop because the market is depressed. Probably 20% to go.

The 30 to 50 foot planning market will I believe drop in between -about 30%. This market is going to be hit hard by the economic problems and the red issue.

The sub 30 foot market planning boats will probably drop less but a lot of those who would have taken up boating will no longer be there and so probably this market has 20% to go.

 

[emcm0025]

The sub 30 foot market is where my boat is sitting. After contacting quite a few dealers in different aeras they have all said the market has been slow to dead at the moment in that size range and they are having to reduce prices to even get people to sniff a look at the boats. IMHO the 20% price drop is already happing and thats a full season before red goes.

 

[Gludy]

I mean that that the sub 30 foot market has a further 20% to go from now!

All my figures are based on the prices that boats are now being sold at . not even what is being asked .......

 

[DAVIDO]

That is the critical point what they are being sold at. As far as i can see and have been told their is often a large difference beetween that and asking price.
It would be interesting if such a set of figures existed as to real prices made for different models.

 

[Pete7]

Paul would you like to have a guess at what is going to happen in the yacht market? Yes I know its a Mobo forum but are price drops likely across the yacht sector too ? We are contemplating a Jeanneau yacht 35ft @ £35k having just given away our Sealine 240 to EBY because it wouldn't sell via brokers.

Pete and Viv

 

[Gludy]

All this is just me pennies worth - I amy be totally wrong.

My take on the yacht market is that it is going to be effected but to a far lesser degree.

The interest rates at home, the chicken coming home to roost in the economy will depress that market as will the way marina charges etc have risen and risen well above inflation. My guess would be more like a 10% to 15% drop in the raggie used prices simply because of those underlying market forces.

In selling your boat to EBY all that you were doing is allowing them to sell it off at market price - market price is basically what any moBo should sell at withing 3 months of going on the market - if it does not sell it has either recived little advertsising or is overpriced. EBY are it seems the only dealers who undersdtand that.

They recently turned me down on a 2003 Sealine S51 for £150k - It had been smoke damaged but was well fixed and looked like new but they were not interested at any price smoke damage or not. I think they know the market well. I have a great deal of respect for them.

 

[Nautorius]

Paul,

I think the Sub 30ft Market has taken a significant hit already (15%) and that there is about another 10% to go, although over winter that will be worse!

My Boat was Broker Valued at £52k in January. I put it up for sale at £46,995. I had two offers around £43k (both accepted but each time interest rates went up and they pulled out...Dreamers?) I thought the price for quick sale was around the late 30's, but as only 3 sold in whole of UK this year (7 last year) it is difficult.

A 2002 model with the old Aq31 just sold for £39k so I have priced mine at £39,950 to get her sold (2003 with Kad32).

It is easier to judge with more common models!

Cheers

Paul /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

 

[Pete7]

Paul thanks /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

EBY were easy to deal with and the whole thing was completed in a week. We took the hit because we wanted to move on and 3 months with a brokerage achieved very little other than the yard fees starting to mount up on a boat that wasn't being used. Your right the price has to be realistic to sell at the moment.

Pete

 

[ruizsantana]

Interesting to read about the situation over there. Here in the U.S. most people see it the same. However, I have a different point of view. At least here, new boat prices are simply OUT OF CONTROL, the msrp of boats seems to have doubled over the past five years. So used boats seem like a very attractive option by comparison. People look at boats a few years old and they don't realize that the msrp was not the same then as it is now, so they see the selling price for the used boat, compare it to the riduculous msrp on the new model, and think that the owner is taking more of a hit that he really is.
In any case, what I see is that after the first 2-3 years depreciation has taken place, boats' values here can be held pretty stable by the fact that new boat prices keep making used boat prices seem more attractive (assuming vessel is kept in excellent, like new condition).
One example, my best boating friend bought a 2000 37' cruiser recently, used it for a year, improved it maybe putting 10k into it, and just sold it for 20k more than he bought it.

 

[Gludy]

Ernesto
What would be the effect on the USA market if fuel went up to say $9 per USA gallon?

 

[hlb]

We'd all get bombed.