Pirate weather forecast?

Otter

Otter

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Metcheck are predicting strongish winds (force 6) for Saturday and Sunday - any other forecasts out there? :eek:
 
Try www.windguru.cz I've always found them far more acurate than met-office based forecasts, the met office always seems to exagerate wind speeds.
windguru says 2-3 NW this sat and 4 SW this sun. for burnham on crouch.
I've had a good few occaisions when I would have stayed in by met office inshore forecast but had a great days cruising by windguru's forecast in exactly the conditions expected.
 
Metcheck is not one of the best.

I rate magic seaweed as the most accurate, met office inshore for what you might expect a bit further offshore and XC weather, which now seems to under estimate, if you are thinking of not going and XC says very windy, don't go!

Light airs for Saturday by looks of things.
 
xyachtdave said:
Metcheck is not one of the best.

I rate magic seaweed as the most accurate, met office inshore for what you might expect a bit further offshore and XC weather, which now seems to under estimate, if you are thinking of not going and XC says very windy, don't go!

Light airs for Saturday by looks of things.
Click to expand...

XC winds are average, they don't allow for gusting. So, on a gusty day, they will most likely be a little under. With that born in mind, they are one of the better sites.
 
Saturday - light and variable - all over the place!

Sunday - mainly SW and moderate gusting fresh. All depends on the effect of the sea breeze too - surprised the direction isn't more on shore?

Just getting a bit nervous about the Wallet and my 11 yo lad. He is so keen to come sailing - he has never been this keen before - that the last thing I want is a grotty trip back to put him off. So on Sunday if I depart with 3 reefs in main and the storm jib you know why!
 
Karouise said:
Windguru is now giving F5 gusting 6 for Walton on the Naze on Sunday.

http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=5200 I have never understood what the WRF9 and WRF27 are all about?

This could put Ben off BIG TIME!
Click to expand...
Basically a forecast is calculated for exact points on the map, and then extrapolated to 'guesstimate' points inbetween... the more points that are 'calculated' rather than 'guesstimated' the more computer power and time is required... WRF9 uses points 9km apart, and WRF27... yes you've guessed it... 27km apart.... the closer the points, the more local effects can be brought into the equation...

However... this is a big point as far as Windguru goes... the WRF runs of the forecast model are processor power hungry, and are behind the main model they use, the GFS, so take longer to update... and you'll find that the GFS model (the top forecast) is usually 6hrs newer... GFS uses (from memory) a 55km model (someone is bound to correct me if i'm wrong).

I've been watching it closely, and the later runs are forecasting a lot less wind than the earlier ones... when it next updates... around 17h00UTC, i bet the WRF forecasts are more moderate

Hope that helps!
 
I hereby declare an official Guapacast, which is acceptable in the face of unfavourable or divergent forecasts for Forum events.
Even though we had 2 waterspout mistrals pass within 5 miles of us, it remained a true statement.


2-4 Variable.
 
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