November Cherbourg across Biscay to Canaries - WX Advice please :)

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MarkJ

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Thanks for your time reading this, and hopefully, replying. I am Australian and well into my second Circumnavigation.
The dreaded time factor means I might wish to leave Cherbourg on a weather window after November 15th to the Canaries. I am specifically worried about the Biscay crossing.
I am not after information re should I do it, but I am after specific weather/routing info that has not come up in the other threads I have found on YBW for this passage.

  • The SW gales to be avoided: Do these come from ex-hurricanes, or, from ex-Great Lakes storms coming off Hatteras?
  • Cornell et al say the worst SW storms are in September and October, but the Pilot Chart clearly shows higher number of Gale Days in November,... and December looks freaky.
    Are these severe Sept and October gales from ex-Hurricanes? Therefore as Mid- November the hurricane season is finished is the weather in Biscay more predictable?
  • Cornell says get out to 12 West before heading down to “avoid embayment” in a SW Gale, others say 8.5W. But why? Is it because 8.5W and 12W are outside the current that sweeps into Biscay?
  • Given I am not coast hopping down the Portuguese coast, I'm thinking 200nms west. How far south of Finistere do the SW Gales go/affect etc? Or once I’m past that point its all fine?
  • The weather window would really need to be 6 days for 600nms from Cherbourg. Is that likely, and, be predictable then? I have satellite weather but that’s doesn’t help as I am already out there.
  • The next earliest reasonable time would then be March?
Thanks for your advice and help :)

Mark
 
There is a Meteo office in Cherboug - staffed by professional meteorologists. They have been very helpful in the past when I have called in for a personal weather briefing:

4 Rue Notre Dame, 50100 Cherbourg-en-Cotentin, France
J9QG+PP Cherbourg-en-Cotentin, France
public_gm_blue_24dp.png
france.meteofrance.com
phone_gm_blue_24dp.png
+33 2 33 10 16 10
 
ithet said:
There is a Meteo office in Cherboug - staffed by professional meteorologists. They have been very helpful in the past when I have called in for a personal weather briefing:
Click to expand...

Yes, I know exactly where their office is :)
Thats great info. Thank you. I will have a chat to them.

Mark
 
I think trying to look for a 'pattern' to the weather at that time of year is a little optimistic. Generally, over the decades, with some smoothing, I'm sure someone has determined that some 'norms' might be evident, but basically it can be summed up by being generally shite with the odd settled spell possible (but not every year).

But apart from seeing if a large high pressure develops over western France so you can motor south, you might get an opportunity depending on the path of the jetstream. The track of N Atlantic depressions (and it matters not how they form) is determined to a large degree by the route the jet stream takes. If it's tracking far enough north, then you will be able to slip out underneath. If like this coming end of week / weekend, it's tracking straight into Biscay, then your options are going to be very limited. There's a number of jet stream forecast sites but I use the N Atlantic, forecast animated large charts on Animation of Jet Stream Forecasts for North Atlantic

Further advice would really depend on what you're sailing and how weatherly both you and your boat are.
 
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