Narrow Escape

[Sailfree]

After posting thread Nazare to Lisbon looked at wind directions and went North. Friday went Nazare to Figueira da Foz.

Looked at magic Seaweed, XC weather and Wind Guru. All indicated it would get windy Saturday night but decided to go from Figueira da Foz to Porto.

Left Figueira da Foz at 09.00 with us going North and a Dufour36 going south. Swell exiting river made exit interesting and looking back thought the Dufour 36 might get swamped but it managed.

We got in to Porto at 20.00 just as wind got up and started raining only to discover in phoning home and news report we had just kept ahead of a hurricane that hit Portugal between Lisbon and Figueira da Foz with recorded winds of 109mph!

The area in our wake has been devastated including Figueira da Foz! Dread to think how we would have coped with 109mph winds if it had hit us while still at sea but how did all the forecasts miss it? Most I saw was gusts of 28kts indicated on forcasts.

Hope the Dufour 36 made it OK as it was heading unbeknown South into the Hurricane winds and while checking out of marina our crews swapped notes on expected forecast and they did not expect a hurricane!

Feel very lucky but very chastened as how can we rely on forecasts for passage planning when they can be so far out?


Now looking at weather window to go back South to Nazare and Tuesday looks good and thinking of accepting having to motor the 60Nmls in one hit and light winds as wind is getting up again after 16.00 on Wednesday only 24kts gusts but don't think I can trust it?

 

[capnsensible]

Well dodged indeed. Seems that some weather sites were slack in promulgating the storm track, yet others had it bang on.

Have you heard any reports from Nazare?

 

[Sailfree]

Well dodged indeed. Seems that some weather sites were slack in promulgating the storm track, yet others had it bang on.

Have you heard any reports from Nazare?

Wife reported strong winds and flickering lights but Nazare does nestle in the lee of a cliff. Heard on news many in this land belt without electricity.

What weather sites had it bang on as certainly not the 3 I use nor whatever the dufour36 used?

 

[capnsensible]

Wife reported strong winds and flickering lights but Nazare does nestle in the lee of a cliff. Heard on news many in this land belt without electricity.

What weather sites had it bang on as certainly not the 3 I use nor whatever the dufour36 used?

wunderground and passageweather.

Nice to know that Nazare dodged the bullet too, its now my favourite on that coast!

 

[GHA]

What weather sites had it bang on as certainly not the 3 I use nor whatever the dufour36 used?

All the windy models had it though GFS showed it still heading to the Algarve as late as the sat 6am model run.

WX weather is another good site for comparing models >
http://wxcharts.eu/?panel=default&m...plottype=10&lat=37.144&lon=-7.723&skewtstep=0
Another one worth a quick look > http://www.severe-weather.eu/

Surprising you didn't hear about it, everyone down the Algave knew for a day or so though there was a lot of uncertainty about the path til late on.

 

[Sailfree]

All the windy models had it though GFS showed it still heading to the Algarve as late as the sat 6am model run.

WX weather is another good site for comparing models >
http://wxcharts.eu/?panel=default&m...plottype=10&lat=37.144&lon=-7.723&skewtstep=0
Another one worth a quick look > http://www.severe-weather.eu/

Surprising you didn't hear about it, everyone down the Algave knew for a day or so though there was a lot of uncertainty about the path til late on.

Did not hear about it as there is not a ex-pat sailing community at Clube Nazare Marina - all local boats that go out to catch a few fish for dinner!


Old crew came out from UK to go sailing as missing the boat! Between the two of us all we looked up was the weather sites mentioned.

 

[GHA]

Did not hear about it as there is not a ex-pat sailing community at Clube Nazare Marina - all local boats that go out to catch a few fish for dinner!


Old crew came out from UK to go sailing as missing the boat! Between the two of us all we looked up was the weather sites mentioned.

Just noticed windy has a new feature showing spot forecast for the 4 models wind at the same time, this would have shown the ecmwf & icon-eu saying gonna be windy up there for a couple of days anyway, can't remember about NEMS. Anyway, would have given some warning that there might be something worth looking out for..

And best rain alarm I've found so far >
https://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/obs.remote/index.jsp

 

[Yngmar]

Feel very lucky but very chastened as how can we rely on forecasts for passage planning when they can be so far out?

You can't rely on forecasts, that's a lesson everyone learns sooner or later, more or less painfully. After cruising a region for a while and comparing forecasts, you do eventually get an idea which weather model is right more often in what kind of weather situation, and from how far ahead in time you can trust it somewhat. But in unsettled weather, most of them are regularly wrong, sometimes badly so.

It's always better to look at the big picture too, instead of a table with wind speed and gusts for a location, with no indication of the nearby passing storm that may change its path towards you. Windy probably has the best visual presentation for this, although others are catching up. Do zoom out past the bit you plan to sail in and see what's happening around.

As for weather models, where we've been so far (Atlantic Europe and western Med), GFS always was the most often wrong one. Perhaps it's just an outdated model, or perhaps being financed by US taxpayers, it's more focused on what affects that area and less effort is extended into modeling the weather over here. Because the data is freely available, and easy to access as GRIB files, it's still the most widely used one.

Windy uses the ECMWF for Europe by default, which is much better for these areas. They have a few others you can switch between (including a comparison view), but never found the other two to be worth much, at least not where we've been.

The French commercial Meteo Consult (not to be confused with the official Meteo France) has their own model and sells data for a lot of money to shipping companies (with free website/app for leisure use), and it is excellent for short-term forecasts and is the only one that got the local thunderstorms and squalls right 95% of the time in the Balaeres that all the other models completely ignored (they do not model data at this detail level). It was however more often wrong for several days ahead in the Med (but very good along the Atlantic coast). Unlike some, it also outputs a reliability percentage, which is useful - it tells you how sure the model is of the predicted outcome. For 2-3 days ahead this often drops to 65%, which should give you an idea of the uncertainty you should account for when planning. Obviously always get the most recent forecast just before setting off.

Lastly, don't forget that forecasts are updated regularly, typically every 3 hours, and when coastal sailing you will usually be in range of mobile networks, so do not hesitate to get a current forecast while out there and change your plans if you see something ugly. At worst, you'll be able to reef in time and prepare (i.e. set up your storm jib before the foredeck starts bucking). This helped us several times while sailing along northern Sicily in unsettled weather, and it's much nicer knowing there is a nasty squall coming and having everything ready and your foulies on by the time it hits, rather than reefing in a hurry when you see that sharp line on the horizon with minutes to react.

Windy's recently added weather radar/lightning detection is also amazing, and not just for deciding if you're going to get wet on the way to the bar. This was previously only available on regional websites one had to hunt down and bookmark.

By the way, there's a good anchorage in Sao Jacinto (near Aveiro), between FigFoz and Nazare, depending on your draft (had no problem at 2m). Gotta time the tide right to go up the bit of river, as current can be 3 knots, but it's quite inland and had good sleep there (although fog in the morning).

 

[LadyInBed]

What weather sites had it bang on as certainly not the 3 I use nor whatever the dufour36 used?

GHA flagged it here http://www.ybw.com/forums/showthread.php?508973-Hurricane-heading-for-Lisbon

 

[MikeH99]

Hope all well. On the bright side Porto is a great place to get stuck. Did you pick up any news of the Dufour?

 

[Tomahawk]

NOAA were warning of a hurricane hitting Portugal.. there was an article on G Captain
GFS had it going north and dissipating.

As to reliability of forecasts, I use weatheronline.co.uk. They have most of the major models available, GFS, ECWMF, Etc. They also have a useful function to look back over the past few days to see how the forecast for tomorrow (Wed) compares with how they saw it on Monday, Sunday, Saturday etc. If the forecast stays pretty much the same it indicates the model is quite reliable. If it changes every day.. then anyone can guess it.

 

[Sailfree]

Hope all well. On the bright side Porto is a great place to get stuck. Did you pick up any news of the Dufour?

Arrived back in Nazare at 03.30 wed morning after they re-opened Porto at 09.30 on Tuesday. Hardly any wind so motored all way back. Took 17.5hrs motoring at 5.5-6kts. 7.5 hrs in darkness and no moon (cloudy) so could not see pot markers until they bumped past the stern! swell for Figeira da Foz was forecast high and as crew need to fly back to UK decided not to chance either entry or getting stuck there. Bumpy trip but only casualty was the broken top to the frothy milk part of the Nespresso machine (they have supplied a replacement before FOC! short trips Poole to Solent did have their advantages!!

Fantastic seeing pods of Dolphins swimming around the boat in daylight but even more fantastic at night where they seem to jump further out of the water and the phosphorescence as they race past was fantastic.

Could not see Dufour 36 at Clube Naval Nazare but they may have gone to the harbour masters marina area by the fishing boats.

Leaving Porto there was a 4 engine grey plane (military) doing circle over the sea as if looking for something.

 

[wayfarer8088]

Arrived back in Nazare at 03.30 wed morning after they re-opened Porto at 09.30 on Tuesday. Hardly any wind so motored all way back.

Lucky you had plenty of fuel this time! Who is the "old crew" I wonder???