Most accurate long range forecast, 7 days+

[bumblefish]

Who gives you the most accurate forecast for the next 7/8 days? The Royal Escape Race from Brighton to Fecamp is next Friday 25th and I would like to have some very advance idea of the expected conditions. This may affect my entry!

 

[Birdseye]

I quite like the windguru forecast, but tbh any 7 day forecast is not at all accurate. With our proximity to the boundary between the polar and tropical air masses, and regular depressions rolling in, the uk weather simply isnt very predictable.

In fact I did an exercise one long boring trip comparing what actually happened with the forecast. It turned out to be more accurate to assume that tomorrow would be the same as today than to believe the forecast from the Met Office.

 

[bluedragon]

I'm also a fan of Windguru...but the 7-day is based on GFS data that you can get in various other places also. A lot of weather providers use the same few global models. I use it to give an indication of whether the weather is likely to be favourable or not, or to spot big changes such as high pressure building or breaking down. For what you want it might be fine. Also try XC Weather, or Expert Charts on weatheronline.com. They'll likely all tell you the same thing, as I suspect it's all the same data source.

 

[philip_stevens]

WetterZentrale do a nine day forecast, which, from past experience, is about 60-70% accurate at 8 or 9 days.

You get the isobaric maps and temperature forecast, and work out the wind direction and force yourself.

They also do another prognosis here but remember, this is for Germany.

 

[Phoenix of Hamble]

Best bet is to watch the GFS models over a few days (wetterzentrale is useful becuase of the extension out to 9 days), and see how stable the predictions are... if they remain reasoanble consistent over say 3 or 4 days, then they tend to be quite good, but if they seem to change every day, then you can pretty much forget them...

Regaredless, i've been watching that same period in time for a few days now, and it looks like high pressure will reestalish, bringing light winds, probably from the west or southwest and warmer weather...

 

[Scillypete]

ever tried here covers a week ahead and gives a reasonable idea of whats to come and is regularly updated. Just remember it is only an idea of what may be in store.

 

[Spyro]

WEATHERONLINE Use the search then click on 8 day forecast (You may have to override your pop up blocker if you have one). Found it excellent when I visited Portugal last month.

 

[Anonymous]

www.buoyweather.com is a convenient (subscription) way to view the GFS model in all sorts of different ways, text, graphics, worldwide, by email subscription, emails on request (good for Winlink and Sailmail).

Is it accurate? It is the GFS model and that fails close to land and in other tricky places such as the Straits of Gib, Balearics, Corsica and Sardinia, etc. UK is quite good because GFS gives a good idea of what is coming across the Atlantic. But accurate? /forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

 

[Guest]

The models are so different at present, that you have little hope of a reliable forecast.

At present the channel is the dividing line between the North Atlantic lows and the cloud line coming up from Spain. Be patient. Just hope the high pressure ridge does not stick over the channel!

 

[kindredspirit]

Click on the "S" in UK section here.

http://www.ogimet.com/tabla_pred.phtml?lang=en

 

[Blue5]

Metcheck.com do an 8 - 14 forecast, never found any of them that accurate when you get weather coming in from the Atlantic

 

[Talbot]

Best I have found is only really reasonable for a maximum 4-5 days. Anything more and you might as well use a bit of seaweed!

 

[FAITIRA]

Yes I use weatheronline, find it easy to use and as accurate as could be expected. Their predictions this last week have been consistant for E coast of Ireland for tomorrow, will find out a.m. if they are right when I pick up a Dehler 37 to deliver!!!