More on loss of GPS due to solar flares.

Conachair

Conachair

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Found this in a spare moment, thought it may be of interest.
"http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/Sept06/solar.flares.gps.TO.html"
Much more detail than new scientist piece. Looks like this was a chance discovery, I wonder if any of the manufacturers knew or suspected? I would like to doubt that given the importance of GPS for airlines etc.
Also looks like it may be prudent to get a bit of nav pratice in before 2011...
 
Welcome to the believers. In a few minutes you will see the power of social internet, as Struthio and friends come charging along. /forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif
 
[ QUOTE ]
This may seem a little unbelieveable to some but AIRLINERS DON'T USE GPS FOR NAVIGATION so they won't be dropping out of the sky or anything else for that matter /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]According to this article they do. (possibly along with INS and IGS)
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"Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity"
sailroom <span style="color:red">The place to auction your previously loved boatie bits</span>
 
Perhaps the most worrying aspect of this is the USAF's widespread use of GPS guided bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Without GPS these weapons become just bombs and are likely to drop in the wrong place - such as "friendly" troops, civilians, different country etc etc.

But then again

Perhaps not much difference after all
 
The GPS article quoted in this thread contains a number of sensation seeking assumptions about the foolishness of commercial GPS users, and the foolhardiness of GPS developers. That's the way to get published.

The development of aircraft navigation story has enough inaccuracies to make it quite clear that it is not a reliable source for information.

The original GPS material is far more intricate. See http://www.ion.org/meetings/gnss2006program.cfm#D3

OK, that's indigestible for most of us. What is clear is that ionospheric interference with GPS has been investigated for many years, its effects are well known by those who work in the field, vulnerabilities are minimised by hardware design.

Further reading in the same symposium shows that passenger aircraft navigation comprises a fusion of many techniques, ie, updating Inertial Navigation drift with GPS updates. Yet further inspection shows how GPS is being developed as a suitable aid for Cat 3 landings (autoland).

Please, don't be led astray by sensation seeking articles. There really are a lot very dedicated boffins out there who are streets ahead of the game, yet reviewed and kept in check by many very competitive peers.
 
Sorry, not true. A few years ago I managed to wangle a cockpit visit on a flight back to UK from Dallas. The co-pilot was Canadian and he told me that not only do Canadian aircraft use GPS for navigation, they also use it for altitude. I'm not certain that GPS is the primary system but it is most definitely used.
 
The first flight deck ride I had in an aircraft with GPS was in 1990/91 - can't remember which of '90, '91. That was a private aircraft set up for long distance oceanic flights and a couple of months after that the first commercial passenger flights started using it here for area nav.

During the time since then there have been 2 solar maxima and in 2005 (or thereabouts) the largest solar flare experienced for many decades (I assume everyone got lost that day /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif). That large solar flare (and solar flares are quite frequent) occurred well away from the solar maximum so I guess the worriers on the forum best get worrying as if they are correct the GPS could fail at any moment and, of course, must have done so many times over the last 1-1/2 decades without us previously noticing /forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Really are a couple of pathetic idiots around the forum who have no idea what they are talking about and fret about every disaster they can create in their imaginations and do their best to carry others along with them /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif.

John
 
Isn't it amazing how the lack of knowledge of military design amongst young undergaduates can be taken to be the bible of false premise.

GPS is a military solution and whether it works constantly or drops out for a few seconds makes no difference to the systems the satellites were designed to work for.

If you pirate a military signal and use it for your own purposes you must accept the risk that they'll turn it off, increase the CPE, on encrypt the signals completely for military reasons.

Anyone relying solely on GPS will tend to be removed from the gene pool sooner rather than later.
 
I am a bit lost for words - a military solution ?

It started out as that, but the commercial pressures are now the dominant drivers. The services get a better deal, especially on some encrypted functions, and may be the only people able to use it if Bush decides to switch it off one day for ordinary users.

The EU is going ahead with its own GPS system, to have an element of independence and resilience.

We certainly don't "pirate" the signal. It's paid for in a number of ways, often out of the public purse, and regarded as a significant safety measure by enlightened governments (which is why Bill Clinton ordered the scrambling to be taken off, so that we can now get such a precise and accurate position.

I am 100% behind your last sentence, though. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif Which is why ambulance and fire brigades in this country are going to consider running mapreading courses again !
 
Difficult to understand the intellectual basis for your last paragraph, especially as you are so coy about your personal details.

Can we have an unequivocal and logical statement from you that GPS services will never be disrupted, and that you personally advise the manifold users of GPS to have no fallback systems and skills ? I will happily then pass that information on to insurance companies, and maritime/aviation safety authorities, who will doubtless be mightily relieved that their professional strategic concerns about loss of GPS services are so totally unfounded.

Your obsession with rubbishing people who are paid to exercise high standards of professional diligence at a strictly auditable level gives the impression that you are speaking on the basis of little knowledge, yet some of your other contributions have led significantly to the opposite perception.
 
I will stick my neck out.

If the US military sourced GPS signal is deliberately degraded or even switched off without notice to civillian users within the next five years I shall be very surprised and buy myself a pint of lager. If the EU variant is supplied free and there is no "licence cost" hidden in the price of even the most sophisticated receiver I shall be even more surprised and buy myself two pints. Three pints if it is also delivered according to timetable and budget.

I don't like lager.

:-)
 
Agreed very much .

I wouldn't put money on a warning being issued if a really big "event" occurred, but I think it's unlikely. Service can be modified in a number of ways including regional degradation, if required.

The other EU regime will have to be paid for somehow, as it's already overbudget (there's a change !) so my expectations are not too high. Is it too much to hope for an altruistic approach from Brussels, and say that the savings (for emergency services, commercial and personal routeing, general maritime and avaiation safety and nav, agricultural monitoring, governmental surveying, etc) will outweigh the costs?
 
God there's some hot air on here!

[ QUOTE ]
If you pirate a military signal and use it for your own purposes you must accept the risk that they'll turn it off, increase the CPE, on encrypt the signals completely for military reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

The military signals are on a different frequency (1227.6 MHz) and use the P Code which can be encrypted. The commercial GPS receivers use the L1 band (1575.42 MHz) and the unencrypted C/A code

And Sarabande, you are right that there were issues relating to reliability of gps for safety critical applications such as aircraft during certain phases of flight. But you clearly don't understand the subject

[ QUOTE ]

On July 10, 2003, the U.S. WAAS was commissioned by the FAA over most of the continental United States, adjacent oceanic regions, and much of Alaska, and is the only satellite-based augmentation system (SBAS) currently certified for instrument flight rules (IFR) operations in the world. On this date, aviation users were able to use WAAS as a navigation aid for enroute and lateral navigation/vertical navigation (LNAV/VNAV) approaches. Over 700 LNAV/VNAV approaches have been developed and published so far that allow pilots to safely descend to 350 ft. above the runway threshold with the vertical guidance provided by WAAS. In September 2003, the first of the near precision approaches (known as LPV) were provided where pilots could safely descend to a 250 ft. decision height. Nearly 50 LPV procedures have been published to date

[/ QUOTE ]
 
Sorry, I don't claim to know about aircraft GPS apart from the principles of resilience. I think you are referring to someone else's remarks ?
 
Your arguments have been along the lines that there is a high probability of the GPS failing due to solar activity during the solar maximum. That is also the heading of this thread.

It seems that you have now slinking away from that by trying to turn your argument into one of accusing me of claiming that the system is absolutely failure proof which is a claim that I have never made so you are now covering yourself by making further misleading (deliberately falsified?) claims. Of course no system is entirely failure proof (even ones reliance on manual methods of navigation are fraught with failure opportunities - in fact far more so than the GPS). It is true though that most of us are capable of making balanced decisions about the potential risks in life and are not misled by scaremongers such as yourself making claims based on fringe reports with no knowledge of the subject oneself.

You clearly have no idea whatsoever about what you are talking about.

You challenge my credentials, but I am afraid that I am not filling out my bio just to satisfy fear mongers such as yourself. However, I do have a background in specifying and managing rules compliance (eg with class and with national regulation/rules) for both new build and existing commercial vessels (among other work in the marine industry). In aviation I have been involved in or managed (among other things) air traffic management modernisation projects in a number of countries over the years (with respect to projects, reviews, etc those countries have included all of Australasia, USA, a number of European and Scandinavian countries and Asia), including complete modernisations of ground based navigation systems and the design of the new enroute, arrival and departure procedures associated with those (as well as work on the efficiency of routing, etc).

I have a degree in physics (electromagnetism and electronics) (among other tertiary qualifications) and an ongoing interest in helioseismicity due both to radio interests I have and the physics school I studied at having done much original work in antipodal propagation.

You may now wish to advise us what the basis of your own knowledge and experience is that allows you to make adamant claims that the GPS is unreliable, especially with respect to the helioseismic events that you claim allow you to predict its likely failure at the next solar maxima.

John
 
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