Missed a weather window and now we look stuck in Beaucette, Guernsey

My guess would be Duncan has got it right, anyone who uses a UTC clock must know what they are doing, I would have to get an almanac out to check how much I need to add on, is that half past two Duncan ? ;)

I am not so sure Friday will be family cruising conditions, hope it improves but could be a bit dull from inside a V48.

Local conditions is an interesting point and crew need to be warned about the odd 3 miles of choppy conditions but in my opinion they shouldnt prevent a 100 nm sea passage.

Most of us would be happy to cast off for 15 miles across to cowes in a 6/7 knowing we are going to get one or two over the top, The Solent has lots of tide and wind amplification causing choppy conditions, I dont see the difference in casting off to cover 100 nm where most will be a slight sea save the headlands and races that are going to get Moderate for a short duration, just slow down for 3-4 miles until you are through it or avoid the worst by going casquets , Doyle, North Head etc
 
..save the headlands and races that are going to get Moderate for a short duration, just slow down for 3-4 miles until you are through it...

Agreed, we've been through the race a few times, sail and power. If it's a moderate 100 mile passage, a few miles of up & down can add a frisson of excitement, so long as the crew are up for it.

Planning not helped by weather forecasts being all over the place.

Monday 23rd August, St Peter Port.

Metcheck: F2-F3 from the West, rain.
Windfinder: F5-F6 from the South, dry.
 
yep, I always use Metcheck if I want a good forecast and a reason to go. For some reason they are always lower wind predictions than others. No idea why
 
Agreed, we've been through the race a few times, sail and power. If it's a moderate 100 mile passage, a few miles of up & down can add a frisson of excitement, so long as the crew are up for it.

Planning not helped by weather forecasts being all over the place.

Monday 23rd August, St Peter Port.

Metcheck: F2-F3 from the West, rain.
Windfinder: F5-F6 from the South, dry.

Its a long way off to be sure but the current predicted synoptic s are indicating early 0001 hrs Variable 1-3 but SW 5 by early afternoon so they are sort of both right.

I would be ready for an early start , checking the nav lights and hoisting the radar reflector.
 
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