Just for a change....

zoidberg

Well-known member
Joined
12 Nov 2016
Messages
6,371
Visit site
....Let's talk about the weather!

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and the Gulf Stream*, are on the verge of collapsing, climate scientists warn
*That thing that assists or impedes [but, almost always affects] sailing, in Atlantic waters.

In an open letter [1], 44 of the world's leading climate scientists say that key Atlantic Ocean currents - including the Gulf Stream - are on the brink of failure. The scientists caution that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could lead to 'devastating and irreversible impacts' which will affect 'the entire world for centuries to come'.

Should the AMOC collapse, the effects would be widespread, devastating, and extremely long-lasting.

Scientists believe that the last time AMOC completely collapsed was during the end of the last Ice Age, around 12,000 years ago, when temperatures, in western Europe, plummeted by up to 10°C (18°F); and it took about 1,000 years to recover, though the past is not a direct analogue, because there is also massive CO2 forcing this time [CO2 is already higher than any time in 15m years].

The collapse would lead to major cooling, and 'unprecedented extreme weather', especially in Nordic countries. This would enlarge and deepen the 'cold blob', of anomalously cold waters, which has already developed, over the eastern North Atlantic, due to the slowdown of heat-carrying currents. This would be particularly bad news for the UK, which is kept warm by currents of warm water, carried by AMOC, northwards from the Gulf of Mexico.

However, not every scientist is in agreement that AMOC will collapse within this century.[2] Since AMOC was first measured in 2004, scientists have expressed concerns that the current system could be weakening. Yet a number of leading experts argue that these conclusions are far from being definitively established. The main issue is that researchers have had to make some basic assumptions, about how AMOC works, in order to predict how it might change, over time.

Is the AMOC definitely changing? Direct instrumental measurements of the strength of the AMOC only began in 2004, when the RAPID [3] array was installed across the Atlantic. After nearly 20 years of continuous measurements, the data show a 10-per-cent decrease in its strength, but because the observations show such a lot of change from year to year, we can’t be sure that this is a meaningful, long-term decline.

[1] “Open Letter by Climate Scientists to the Nordic Council of Ministers” [October 2024]
https://en.vedur.is/media/ads_in_hea...tter_Final.pdf

[2] “Future of the Gulf Stream circulation” ~ by the German Marine Research Consortium [KDM]
https://www.deutsches-klima-konsorti...SAAEgI-tfD_BwE

Not quite the global warming we all are being led to expect.

:cool:
 

AntarcticPilot

Well-known member
Joined
4 May 2007
Messages
10,638
Location
Cambridge, UK
www.cooperandyau.co.uk
It's worth bearing in mind that Western Europe is only habitable because of the warmth brought to our shores by the North Atlantic Drift. Look at other places north of 50°N or south of 50°S and they're pretty much all glaciated, with frozen ground. South Georgia is at about the same latitude south as Manchester is north! If climate change alters oceanic circulation, we could end up with Britain being like Northern Canada.
 

zoidberg

Well-known member
Joined
12 Nov 2016
Messages
6,371
Visit site
Looking on the bright side, ice-yachting on Plymouth Harbour....

Isbjørner rummaging through the wastebins behind the RWYC.
 
Last edited:

lustyd

Well-known member
Joined
27 Jul 2010
Messages
12,614
Visit site
Would that be a rocket scientist, or a climate scientist?
I don't think it matters, all of them and most of the public had this one licked 30 years ago. This has received so much coverage I assumed it wasn't a genuine question so apologies if NormanS has somehow missed the messaging.
 

NormanS

Well-known member
Joined
10 Nov 2008
Messages
9,774
Visit site
If you were really concerned about rising sea levels, you wouldn't have a boat displacing its own weight of water, and pushing that water elsewhere.
 

AntarcticPilot

Well-known member
Joined
4 May 2007
Messages
10,638
Location
Cambridge, UK
www.cooperandyau.co.uk
But it is a result of the atmosphere absorbing more heat because of increases in GHGs.
Exactly. And
What? you mean loads of the population speaking French?
Now that really would be serious. :unsure:🫣
Can you imagine a Geordie gobbing off in pigeon French, mixed with bits of what he already thinks is English:eek:
In northern Canada they mostly speak Inuktitut!
 
Top