Interpreting the forecast

martinriches

martinriches

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About a month ago I took my boat [25' Albin ] to Burnham on Crouch thinking 'one more trip before I tuck it up for the winter'.The weather forecast since then has been so consistently bad that 'a few days' has turned into 'am I ever going to get it back home to the Swale' .Now looking at the inshore forecast for today for instance 'Sea state moderate or rough' says to me don't venture out. The Coastal forecast for the Thames estuary however 'sea state slight' gets me thinking sounds OK. So 'forget about it' or 'have a look see what it's like'. It is a question about interpreting the forecast. What do others with more experience think?


Martin
 
There's a lot of strong wind about at the moment......

In a 25'er... even one with a good reputation for seaworthiness like an Albin, i'd be inclined to hang on, and let this current set of SW gales blow through properly....

The Thames Estuary coastal sea state can be quite sheltered in a SW, but its still going to be pretty rough out there..... if you leave Burnham for the Swale, you're going to need to get a good few miles off shore, so more likely to get the 'rough' than the 'slight'....

Add in cold and rain, and i'd say hang on a bit yet....
 
The seastate you quote is correct.
The prevailing winds have been strong these last few weeks, anywhere from S through to NW'ly.
It's SW now blowing 40kts, due to drop and veer to W tonight.
Then back SW again and increase tomorrow (Tuesday).

Offshore it's pretty rough with wave heights 4-5 meteres inshore where there is a lee the sea is slight or even flat.

With the present winds forecast you need to work out if the wind is going to be offshore for your whole trip and whether you can do the whole trip hugging the coast. FWIW personaly I wouldn't even consider it now until the weather improves, as Magna Carter says, we are getting heavy rain with reduced vis, making lookout duty difficult even with radar.

It really is pretty awful right now and that's from someone who is crossing the pond on a 610 footer !
 
Are you shallow enough to go through Havengore Bridge? That would make for a very easy crossing. Make sure that Maplin Sands on the other side isn't a lee shore though.

Went through there last New Year without too many problems. Use the marker psots as a 'guide' to get you out of the entrance but remember that the deepest channel does move about a bit.
 
I wonder if its' a ploy to permanently close it through the 'back door' ergo, noone moaning about it. AFIK it doesn't get a lot of use, which is a shame as the creeks around it are delightful, and it makes a doddle of getting from Essex to Kent.

We should make sure that our right to navigate through havengore is not removed!
 
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