Hurricane Ivan - Grenada

[machurley22]

Just had a call from a relative of a liveaboard friend who is currently aboard alone in Grenada and I have been asked to try to find up to the minute information on Hurricane Ivan(?) which is apparently threatening Grenada in the immediate future.

Suitable websites are not on my Favourites/Sailing/Weather list and 'though I'm just about to start searching myself, I hope that someone here might be able to point me in the right direction

Dave

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[StellaGirl]

The best website is the National Hurricance Centre. Forgot how to make this a proper llink and the dinners burning so you will have to cut and paste....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Hope this helps, have a few others sites if you want so PM me

<hr width=100% size=1>Its 11.59am - lets open the beers...

 

[machurley22]

thanks stellagirl - nm

.

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[Its_Only_Money]

or try www.weather.com

<hr width=100% size=1>Rgds

Simon
Its Only Money
Fairline Sprint
Solent-based

 

[Talbot]

I have a friend who lives in Grenada as well, and they have not been hit since the 50's, but agree that the latest track would appear to be aiming just north of it and they have only issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada

<A target="_blank" HREF=http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20040906_652.html> Here </A>is a report on it

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[kesey]

Ivan looks like he will pay a very nasty visit to the Grenadines. Here are a few handy URLS:

http://weathercarib.com/

http://www.barometerbob.com/

000
WTNT44 KNHC 061450
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

A SMALL EYE IS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THERE IS A SMALL CDO
AND SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING BANDING FEATURES. ESTIMATES OF THE
DATA T-NUMBER RANGE FROM 4.5 TO 5.5 SO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. SINCE THE HURRICANE APPEARED
TO BE SO INTENSE LAST NIGHT...WE ARE HOLDING THE WIND SPEED AT 110
KT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK RULES. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IVAN AROUND 18Z AND
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS
HURRICANE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF IVAN...PROBABLY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER THAT MODEL ALSO SHOWS
INTENSIFICATION OF IVAN. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
VERY HIGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO INDICATES INTENSIFICATION.
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 HAS THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY
OF HOW IVAN WILL INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/19.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSPHY. IVAN
IS EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITIONS OF A RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT IS STILL TO EARLY
TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT WHETHER IVAN WILL BE SOUTH OF...OVER...OR
NORTH OF CUBA AROUND 5 DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 11.2N 53.4W 110 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 11.8N 56.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 12.7N 59.5W 115 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 13.7N 62.7W 120 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 65.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 71.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 75.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 11/1200Z 23.5N 78.5W 90 KT...OVER WATER


<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://homepage.eircom.net/~ajpower>http://homepage.eircom.net/~ajpower</A>

 

[machurley22]

Thanks to all who posted suggestions and links.

I've just been speaking to Rob who is holed up in Clarks Court on the south coast of the island and discussing the 2100Z update which is not much changed from the previous. Looks as if the closest approach will be about 70M to the North at about 1800Z tomorrow. The latest 'plane found Ivan slightly weakened (though there seemed to be some doubt about whether the instruments were dropped in the exact centre) but still expected to intensify later. One possible mitigating factor (for Grenada anyway) is the presence of a "large blob of convection" to the SW and outwith the main circulation and this is apparently limiting winds in that quadrant.

Thanks again to all,

Dave

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[kesey]

<A target="_blank" HREF=http://homepage.eircom.net/~ajpower>http://homepage.eircom.net/~ajpower

 

[snowleopard]

we hear that this is the first hurricane to go so far south for 50 years. a lot of people assume it's safe to stay in grenada for the summer.

makes me think back to an idyllic couple of days anchored to windward of the tobago cays. i'd hate to be there now!

good luck to anyone with boats or houses in the area.

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[WayneS]

I hope that all is well with them. Looks like it was a nasty hit.

Regards

Wayne


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[ROSSCO]

too late now but I reckon the best site is : http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

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[Ohdrat]

Ouch..

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