Half decent weather site....

[BarryH]

Boat gets put in the water on tuesday. The weather forcasts I'm getting that far ahead are for fairly windy conditions, F5/6 gusting 8. There are big differences between various weather sites. Not wanting to chance single handing in those conditions, not that I would contemplate it with crew either, has anyone got a site that they use thats half way accurate. I know its almost a week in advance, but I need to be able to sort something if the weather puts the mockers on things.
As usual I can see this getting expensive if I cant get to my mooring!!

 

[PhillM]

Sailingweather.co.uk

Dr Simon is closest to the reality that I can find. I've been using his site for a year now.

Might be worth calling for a personalised forcast as its so marginal.

 

[Nostrodamus]

The best and most accurate site I have found is
http://www.buoyweather.com
More information than you can shake a stick at and easy to understand.

 

[Woodlouse]

No weather site will give you an accurate forecast for next tuesday. Any that happen to be right will just be guess work.

If it's worth it though, I reckon next week is going to be mild and sunny. This is based on it being sh*te and windy this week.

 

[VicS]

I'd be inclined to take note of Simon Keeling's forecasts.

 

[Evadne]

I'd be inclined to take note of Simon Keeling's forecasts.

I agree he's one of the most accurate and honest, I swear by weatheronline and windguru, but imho all weather forecasters are trying to predict a semi chaotic weather using purely systematic (mathematical) tools, it always breaks down after a few days unless the weather is stable.

My boat's due in on Wednesday, having cried off yesterday because I am superstitious about the number "8" appearing in forecasts. (As in "SW 5-7 increasing 8 for a time".) That means next Tuesday will be great and it will blow a hooley and rain on Wednesday.

Hope this helps.

 

[[70521]]

I'd be inclined to take note of Simon Keeling's forecasts.

+1

His is also on twitter.

 

[BarryH]

Tuesday will be great and it will blow a hooley and rain on Wednesday.

........it had better not, I'm off around the coast on wednesday. I've found a forcast on metcheck that suits my needs, I'm going to order that one.....

 

[nigelmercier]

I've found a forcast on metcheck that suits my needs, I'm going to order that one.....

That is the advantage of so many weather sites, you can normally find a forecast that you like.

 

[Doug_Stormforce]

As my grandfather used to say...

"A man with a watch knows the time but a man with two watches does not."

 

[franksingleton]

Cynically, we used to say that there is nothing certain in a weather forecast, bar the date; even then you keep the theologians out of the discussion. More seriously, it all comes down to what you are using a forecast for.

When cruising, we make great use of GRIBs – essentially the US GFS. It could equally be the ECMWF forecast charts. That enables us to think and plan ahead for the next 6 or 7 days. They tell us if we are likely to be weatherbound or be able to sail. We use them to decide where we want to be or what we should be doing over the next week. These forecasts usually give
a good indication – as long as forecasts are reasonably consistent from one forecast issued to the next. If they are not consistent, then developments are uncertain and we are appropriately cautious in or decision making.

That there is more uncertainty at some times than others is a fact of meteorological life. We see that when the TV or radio forecasters may be sure about the next few days on some occasions but unsure about the next couple of days on others.

If watching the forecasts tells us that we can probably move on, then we use whatever is the local National Met service – sea area and inshore waters forecasts. They will not give the detail but will warn of any likely major problems that may not previously have been obvious. No 24 hour forecast having to cover a sea area or a stretch of coast eg Lyme Regis to Land’s End and the Isles of Scilly or Pointe de Penmar;c to Anse de l’Aiguillon, is likely to describe accurately what actually happens. They can only give a broad indication. They have to be seen more as a weather warning than a weather forecast service.

For more specific weather in a local area I use a mixture of the local service tempered by nous and experience. For those that want a help on that scale, then Simon or someone like him – there are not too many – will be your best bet. Simon will probably out-perform the Met Office in his forecast service for a relatively small area. If he had to produce the shipping forecast or the inshore forecast as broadcast by HMCG he would do no better than the Met Office, Météo France etc. If you are unsure about interpreting the longer term future then Simon will be a good person to consult. He will have no more information but is likely to be better focused on leisure sailors' needs.

We probably spend more time cruising than many on these forums – and less time than a few of you. As age creeps on (it seems more like gallops), we are becoming more cautious. Getting it right on the large scale is increasingly important. A combination of the GFS, GMDSS forecasts and experience keeps us out of trouble. Where we do still get it wrong is when we come up against very local small scale effects. Last year, it was around Capos Ortegal and Bares where we encountered a local gale F 8 when AEMET gave a local forecast of F 4 and my best guess was a F 6. Another was a squall line NW of the Bassin d’Arcachon associated with thunderstorms barely mentioned by Météo France. C’est la vie.

 

[Vara]

+1

His is also on twitter.

@weatherschool