Gordon may have a sting in his tale

simonjk

simonjk

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Joined
6 Mar 2003
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www.sailingweather.co.uk
Hi All,

This is of special interest to those with boats in the SW, or planning to be in the English Channel on Friday. It supersedes my earlier forecast.

Just wanted to give you a heads-up about a potentially severe weather situation which is developing for Friday.

The area of low pressure, which is the remnants of Hurricane Gordon is forecast to be off the southern coasts of Ireland at midday. Nothing unusual here you might say, but Gordon could be harbouring a surprise.

The "sting jet" can occur in such systems. Developing in levels high up in the atmosphere, a jet stream descends to Earth, increases in density and can cause severe winds at the surface. I am looking at the situation for Friday and very carefully watching developments over southwest England. The American GFS model has not picked up on this, but the British met Office model has.

Should the sting jet occur thee could be winds in excess of 70mph through Cornwall, Devon and south Wales on Friday. Please monitor forecasts closely.

Hope that's a help,
Simon
 
Thanks for that Simon

a post on mobo may help the G and T boys /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

cheers Joe
 
I know you do run seminars, but do you produce any books/booklets?

Don't wish to flatter, but you do seem to talk in a way I can follow.
 
I been saying this for months, but I am in the process of writing a book about getting hold of and interpreting weather information using the internet. I'll let you know as soon as it's out.

Thanks for asking though, it gives me a "kick up the backside" to get it sorted!

Simon
 
These images show it better:

First is for midnight Friday
GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif


Next up is 6-hours later, note how tight the isobars are together travelling up the Irish Sea. If this happens there could be real problems for those in Wales, eastern ireland and later Northern Ireland, northwest England and W Scotland.
GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif


Will try to update in morning, but have an early start.

Simon
 
THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE

Looks like things may be happening earlier now. Here's the UKMet Midnight forecast for tonight, with the sting in the Irish Sea by then:


bracknell+24.gif


The more detailed UKMet charts at Meteocentre aren't out yet, but the MM5 from the USAF is, and this seems to have become more inline with the UKMet. Charts are below, and I suspect therse show things happenening 6 to 9 hours earlier than forecast. However, check the charts later.

MM5_Surface+15.png


[image]
MM5_Surface+18.png
[/image]

[image]
MM5_Surface+21.png
[/image]

Simon
 
Simon, this structure looks, to me, similar to the disturbance that was the root cause of the '79 Fastnet' storm. Is it so?

And, for some years now this guy has been watching over his shoulder for signs and symptoms of an 'embedded secondary depression'.... Is this 'jet sting' much the same animal, with a new name for the new millenium?

Finally, do let us know when your book will be available. provided it goes a bit deeper than the RYA thingy, it should be popular with us yotties.

/forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
 
Hi Simon, any news on your course for southern softies? I for one am getting fed up with inaccurate weather forecasts for the SW and feel the need to be able to take more informed decisions rather than blind reliance on Met Office outlooks!
 
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