Good news from Greece re; Covid certificates.

[Tanqueray]

Published this morning, apologies if posted elsewhere;

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced yesterday that travellers carrying valid vaccination certificates would be permitted to move between the two countries “without any limitations, no self-isolation, nothing.”


On the assumption that this will be extended to other countries as vaccination progresses then the 'no self-isolation' bit will be very useful.

 

[TSailors]

So, to go to Greece from Turkey, we need to go thru Israel. Not a bad plan

 

[Tranona]

It may be wise to wait until there is both real confirmation of the efficacy of both vaccines in general and specific types and an internationally agreed certificate before getting too excited. Bilateral agreements muddy the waters. The WHO (and many individual governments) are working on establishing such a system. Without international agreement certification is wide open to fraud. As we have seen in the last few days, mutations have the potential to make a vaccine ineffective meaning it is likely that no individual vaccine is likely to be universally effective either against all strains or over time. There is no international certificate for flu for example, unlike specific diseases like yellow fever which do not mutate and where there is an internationally recognised vaccine and accompanying certificate.

 

[Tanqueray]

My apologies - it is of course extremely bad news. I'll ensure that the two Prime Ministers clear any further announcements with YBW Forums before releasing further statements.

 

[RJJ]

As we have seen in the last few days, mutations have the potential to make a vaccine ineffective meaning it is likely that no individual vaccine is likely to be universally effective either against all strains or over time.

This is cropping up all over the forum and needs clarification. If you have evidence that any of the approved vaccines are "ineffective" then I would encourage you to share it; otherwise it's inaccurate and dangerous.

Assuming you're talking about the AZ vaccine and SA variant:
- there's nothing to suggest it's "ineffective"
- a very small sample with very wide confidence interval indicated mild symptoms only (1700 participants; 19 vs 23 subjects developing mild symptoms i.e., 22% effective with CI from -49% to+60%)
- the study was over four weeks for two doses vs. the recommended twelve; in week 4, the first dose has only just become effective let alone the second
- this is not considered to have any bearing on effectiveness at keeping you out of hospital and, indeed, alive
- it may indicate reduced effect on transmission; but 22% (if mild symptom rate equates or is proportional to infectivity) is still a huge improvement over nothing

The second part of your sentence is more accurate but only partially so. Most opinions I have seen are that vaccines may be more or less effective against variants, but all are highly likely to give some protection regardless of variant.

 

[Irish Rover]

My apologies - it is of course extremely bad news. I'll ensure that the two Prime Ministers clear any further announcements with YBW Forums before releasing further statements.

Touche. Thanks for sharing the information, of which I for one was not aware. I do think posters should not muddy useful threads like this with irrelevant personal opinions about the efficacy or otherwise of particular vaccines (or bloody Brexit).

 

[Tranona]

Touche. Thanks for sharing the information, of which I for one was not aware. I do think posters should not muddy useful threads like this with irrelevant personal opinions about the efficacy or otherwise of particular vaccines (or bloody Brexit).

I wonder how many YBW readers will be travelling between Israel and Greece this year.

 

[Irish Rover]

I wonder how many YBW readers will be travelling between Israel and Greece this year.

Not too many, I suppose, but I suggest you read the final sentence of the OP for context.

 

[Tranona]

This is cropping up all over the forum and needs clarification. If you have evidence that any of the approved vaccines are "ineffective" then I would encourage you to share it; otherwise it's inaccurate and dangerous.

Assuming you're talking about the AZ vaccine and SA variant:
- there's nothing to suggest it's "ineffective"
- a very small sample with very wide confidence interval indicated mild symptoms only (1700 participants; 19 vs 23 subjects developing mild symptoms i.e., 22% effective with CI from -49% to+60%)
- the study was over four weeks for two doses vs. the recommended twelve; in week 4, the first dose has only just become effective let alone the second
- this is not considered to have any bearing on effectiveness at keeping you out of hospital and, indeed, alive
- it may indicate reduced effect on transmission; but 22% (if mild symptom rate equates or is proportional to infectivity) is still a huge improvement over nothing

The second part of your sentence is more accurate but only partially so. Most opinions I have seen are that vaccines may be more or less effective against variants, but all are highly likely to give some protection regardless of variant.

If you had listened to Professor Van Tam yesterday you would understand my comments. Viruses mutate, vaccines previously or currently effective may not be so against future mutations. He very strongly made the point that this is not a concern now as although there are indications that the current AZ vaccine is less effective against the SA variant, that variant is not here in a big way, nor from the evidence so far is it likely to become dominant. Therefore having the current vaccine is appropriate to deal with the risk here. On the other hand, SA has suspended the use of AZ until more information becomes available. He then made the point that the way to deal with new variants is to modify the vaccine and provide booster jabs, just as has been done for years with flu.

This is one of the key arguments against having universal vaccine certification, together with the practical difficulties of devising and operating a system of recognition. Bi lateral agreements are of limited use and probably time limited . They should not be taken as an indication that certificates are a "good thing" and will make international travel easier and safer.

As we have seen over the last year, solutions even strongly supported and argued turn out to be duds. Test and Trace is a good example. There is simply not enough knowledge around as to how this virus behaves, so inevitably actions which seem right at the time turn out to be blind alleys.

Any way this is not the place to argue this.

My initial response was to the claim that the announcement was good news for YBW Liveaboard members. The last sentence in the post is of course correct, which is why I tried to explain why that is unlikely to happen any time soon.

 

[Tranona]

Not too many, I suppose, but I suggest you read the final sentence of the OP for context.

I did as you will see in my response which I was typing as you posted.

 

[Deleted User YDKXO]

- it may indicate reduced effect on transmission; but 22% (if mild symptom rate equates or is proportional to infectivity) is still a huge improvement over nothing

Surely that is the whole point of a Covid vaccine certificate? If the vaccine is not proven to substantially reduce transmissibility of all Covid variants then allowing a vaccinated person into your country is just as dangerous to the indigenous population as allowing in an unvaccinated person

Entirely IMHO what will determine when countries will allow non essential visitors to enter will depend on when those countries have achieved widespread vaccination of their own elderly and vulnerable population and given the snail like rate at which European countries are rolling out their vaccine programs, that could be many months away

And for a lot of Brits, whether or not they go abroad on holiday this summer is going to be determined by what test/quarantine measures apply in the UK on their return from their chosen holiday destination country. As it stands, even if that country is not on the red list, returning holidaymakers will still have to quarantine at home for 10 days and take upto 3 Covid tests @ £100 a shot. Not a lot of Brit tourists are going to bother going through that for 2 weeks in the sun

 

[Sailfree]

The real problem is the understandable lack of firm Scientific Evidence and the press need to hype up anything. I think RJJs post sums up what we do know quite well.

The major one for me is if you have suffered from Covid it appears for 99.99% they are immune from further infections at least for some time but can you still be a carrier even though you wont suffer yourself?

Likewise if you have had both injections and wont suffer yourself can you still be a carrier?

The fact that the Injections only confer say 90% immunity surely means 10% are not immune but I assume if they get Covid it will confer some partial immunity and reduce the severity of the infection but surely that leaves 10% of vaccinated people as potential carriers?

WRT variants again all new scientific data is welcome but useless to speculate as an extreme variant for which no vaccination confers immunity is no different to a new Virus that could potentially cause a new pandemic. We can't deal with it until its recognised. One potential good thing, if any, to come out of this is that government are better equipped and know better what to do in the event of any other pandemic.

We expected to be flooded with visitors in Portugal this year but think we might be Billy-no-mates now! Daughter has already moved her flight for whole family twice already. Interestingly the whole family have suffered from Covid (the adults quite badly - worse illness they have ever had!) and they all tested positive. 2 of them have temporary jobs working for the council with the homeless in Kent and they have now received their 1st jab! Belt & Braces?

 

[Deleted User YDKXO]

Likewise if you have had both injections and wont suffer yourself can you still be a carrier?

As I said above thats the point. The data suggests that a vaccinated person is less capable of transmitting the virus but by how much and whether thats the case across all known variants seems to be unknown. The other big factor IMHO is that a vaccinated person is less likely to respect Covid distancing and mask rules, knowing that they are safe themselves, so whilst they may transmit the virus less than an unvaccinated person, the fact that they are ignoring Covid guidelines may make them just as dangerous

By what date is the govt of Portugal saying they'll have all 50+ yr olds vaccinated because IMHO that will determine whether Portugal welcomes any tourists this summer?

 

[Sailfree]

As I said above thats the point. The data suggests that a vaccinated person is less capable of transmitting the virus but by how much and whether thats the case across all known variants seems to be unknown. The other big factor IMHO is that a vaccinated person is less likely to respect Covid distancing and mask rules, knowing that they are safe themselves, so whilst they may transmit the virus less than an unvaccinated person, the fact that they are ignoring Covid guidelines may make them just as dangerous

By what date is the govt of Portugal saying they'll have all 50+ yr olds vaccinated because IMHO that will determine whether Portugal welcomes any tourists this summer?

They dont!

The only European countries doing well are UK and those in the EU that decided to go independent and negotiate their own vaccine supply. THe EU cocked upon this one!

 

[Deleted User YDKXO]

They dont!

The only European countries doing well are UK and those in the EU that decided to go independent and negotiate their own vaccine supply. THe EU cocked upon this one!

Actually that remains to be seen. It seems that the main reason that the UK signed contracts with the pharma companies ahead of the EU was that the UK rolled over on the pharma companies' demands for immunity from prosecution in the event of unforeseen side effects from their vaccines whereas the EU held out on this point. I guess we'll know whether the UK was right to do that over the next few years but certainly the UK is well ahead in terms of sticking the stuff in peoples' arms

 

[Seastoke]

Actually that remains to be seen. It seems that the main reason that the UK signed contracts with the pharma companies ahead of the EU was that the UK rolled over on the pharma companies' demands for immunity from prosecution in the event of unforeseen side effects from their vaccines whereas the EU held out on this point. I guess we'll know whether the UK was right to do that over the next few years but certainly the UK is well ahead in terms of sticking the stuff in peoples' arms

Good old Boris , i here you saying. i love it

 

[Deleted User YDKXO]

Good old Boris , i here you saying. i love it

There's about 115,000 dead people who arent saying that and neither are their families

 

[Seastoke]

There's about 115,000 dead people who arent saying that and neither are their families

An old guy i new who had cancer dementia and a bag on ,he fell over burst his bag taken in hospital , a week later dies of covid . But did he.

 

[Deleted User YDKXO]

An old guy i new who had cancer dementia and a bag on ,he fell over burst his bag taken in hospital , a week later dies of covid . But did he.

Unfortunately the excess deaths figures back up the official Covid death figures so there is no hiding from that horrific number, however many half baked stories you've got

 

[Sailfree]

There's about 115,000 dead people who arent saying that and neither are their families

115,000 and unfortunately still counting.

Lockdown is economically damaging and I can understand Politicians reluctance to introduce it.

Portugal were comparatively doing well until they relaxed lockdown over Xmas and more infectious strains got in.